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	<title>Comments on: On German Concerns About US Monetary Policy</title>
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	<link>http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2009/03/18/on-german-concerns-about-us-monetary-policy/</link>
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	<pubDate>Mon, 13 Feb 2012 05:04:40 +0000</pubDate>
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		<title>By: Inflation oder Deflation? &#124; Ulrich Fritsche</title>
		<link>http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2009/03/18/on-german-concerns-about-us-monetary-policy/#comment-88829</link>
		<dc:creator>Inflation oder Deflation? &#124; Ulrich Fritsche</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 04 Nov 2010 04:19:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.irisheconomy.ie/?p=1121#comment-88829</guid>
		<description>[...] longer term is that inflation will rise rapidly.&#8221; Auch deutsche Wirtschaftsforscher &#8212; Christoph Schmidt, Klaus Zimmermann, Institute der Gemeinschaftsdiagnose usw. &#8212; argumentieren in diese Richtung, auch wenn sich [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] longer term is that inflation will rise rapidly.&#8221; Auch deutsche Wirtschaftsforscher &#8212; Christoph Schmidt, Klaus Zimmermann, Institute der Gemeinschaftsdiagnose usw. &#8212; argumentieren in diese Richtung, auch wenn sich [...]</p>
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		<title>By: Pat Donnelly</title>
		<link>http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2009/03/18/on-german-concerns-about-us-monetary-policy/#comment-2810</link>
		<dc:creator>Pat Donnelly</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 23 Mar 2009 11:44:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.irisheconomy.ie/?p=1121#comment-2810</guid>
		<description>The Germans are averse to distorting their economy and inflationary policies are guaranteed to do that. The USA and UK are beggaring their creditors, internal and external, by inflating as much as possible. Their political class are in thrall to those who most benefit from inflation. And they align themselves accordingly to mutual profit. Governments are rarely criticized if their policies suit the chattering classes. It is called decadence. Fiat currencies require constant vigilance which means employment for economists among others.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Germans are averse to distorting their economy and inflationary policies are guaranteed to do that. The USA and UK are beggaring their creditors, internal and external, by inflating as much as possible. Their political class are in thrall to those who most benefit from inflation. And they align themselves accordingly to mutual profit. Governments are rarely criticized if their policies suit the chattering classes. It is called decadence. Fiat currencies require constant vigilance which means employment for economists among others.</p>
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		<title>By: Karl Whelan</title>
		<link>http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2009/03/18/on-german-concerns-about-us-monetary-policy/#comment-2637</link>
		<dc:creator>Karl Whelan</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 20 Mar 2009 14:55:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.irisheconomy.ie/?p=1121#comment-2637</guid>
		<description>Hi Matt. No need for the angry "inflationist" terminology. I try not be an "ist" of any sort but rather to base my opinions on what seems correct.  In any case, you're wrong that this particular inflationist (if such I am) is ignoring the arguments but right that my response is "that's the point" -- indeed it says so in the post.

On the substance, excessively low interest rates were certainly a contributing factor in the boom-bust cycle but a lot of other things went wrong also.  The piece you cite on interest rates as the cause of the crisis is by John Taylor, who (not surprisingly) recommends that they should have followed his interest rate rule and had higher rates during 2003-05.

The Taylor rule is now calling for interest rates to go negative.  
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/01/17/zero-lower-bound-blogging/</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hi Matt. No need for the angry &#8220;inflationist&#8221; terminology. I try not be an &#8220;ist&#8221; of any sort but rather to base my opinions on what seems correct.  In any case, you&#8217;re wrong that this particular inflationist (if such I am) is ignoring the arguments but right that my response is &#8220;that&#8217;s the point&#8221; &#8212; indeed it says so in the post.</p>
<p>On the substance, excessively low interest rates were certainly a contributing factor in the boom-bust cycle but a lot of other things went wrong also.  The piece you cite on interest rates as the cause of the crisis is by John Taylor, who (not surprisingly) recommends that they should have followed his interest rate rule and had higher rates during 2003-05.</p>
<p>The Taylor rule is now calling for interest rates to go negative.<br />
<a href="http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/01/17/zero-lower-bound-blogging/" rel="nofollow">http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/01/17/zero-lower-bound-blogging/</a></p>
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		<title>By: Matt</title>
		<link>http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2009/03/18/on-german-concerns-about-us-monetary-policy/#comment-2634</link>
		<dc:creator>Matt</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 20 Mar 2009 14:13:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.irisheconomy.ie/?p=1121#comment-2634</guid>
		<description>Graham, I think that the inflationists will simply ignore your argument or will say "that's the point". I've already heard from proponants that there is nothing to crowd out, that is, the &lt;a href="http://mises.org/story/3290" rel="nofollow"&gt;argument from idle resources&lt;/a&gt;.

Similarly, falling prices remain the bogeyman of the economic establishment. 

Suffice to say stimulating consumption is a ridiculous idea, precisely because a recession reveals a lack of real savings. And slashing interest rates when that was precisely the &lt;a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123414310280561945.html" rel="nofollow"&gt;cause of the crisis&lt;/a&gt; is even crazier.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Graham, I think that the inflationists will simply ignore your argument or will say &#8220;that&#8217;s the point&#8221;. I&#8217;ve already heard from proponants that there is nothing to crowd out, that is, the <a href="http://mises.org/story/3290" rel="nofollow">argument from idle resources</a>.</p>
<p>Similarly, falling prices remain the bogeyman of the economic establishment. </p>
<p>Suffice to say stimulating consumption is a ridiculous idea, precisely because a recession reveals a lack of real savings. And slashing interest rates when that was precisely the <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123414310280561945.html" rel="nofollow">cause of the crisis</a> is even crazier.</p>
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		<title>By: Ciaran</title>
		<link>http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2009/03/18/on-german-concerns-about-us-monetary-policy/#comment-2612</link>
		<dc:creator>Ciaran</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 20 Mar 2009 09:58:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.irisheconomy.ie/?p=1121#comment-2612</guid>
		<description>Also Nouriel Roubini is sharply pessimistic on economic prospects at the mo even given stimulus &#38; easy money policy

http://www.rgemonitor.com/roubini-monitor/255995/reflections_on_the_latest_dead_cat_bounce_or_bear_market_suckers_rally</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Also Nouriel Roubini is sharply pessimistic on economic prospects at the mo even given stimulus &amp; easy money policy</p>
<p><a href="http://www.rgemonitor.com/roubini-monitor/255995/reflections_on_the_latest_dead_cat_bounce_or_bear_market_suckers_rally" rel="nofollow">http://www.rgemonitor.com/roubini-monitor/255995/reflections_on_the_latest_dead_cat_bounce_or_bear_market_suckers_rally</a></p>
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		<title>By: Graham Stull</title>
		<link>http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2009/03/18/on-german-concerns-about-us-monetary-policy/#comment-2606</link>
		<dc:creator>Graham Stull</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 20 Mar 2009 09:34:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.irisheconomy.ie/?p=1121#comment-2606</guid>
		<description>I also agree with Ciaran - stimulus without quantititave easing results in crowding out. Stimulus &lt;i&gt;with&lt;/i&gt; quantitative easing results in inflation.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I also agree with Ciaran - stimulus without quantititave easing results in crowding out. Stimulus <i>with</i> quantitative easing results in inflation.</p>
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		<title>By: Matt</title>
		<link>http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2009/03/18/on-german-concerns-about-us-monetary-policy/#comment-2592</link>
		<dc:creator>Matt</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 20 Mar 2009 00:56:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.irisheconomy.ie/?p=1121#comment-2592</guid>
		<description>I agree Ciaran. Karl doesn't mention that the US &lt;i&gt;had&lt;/i&gt; negative real interest rates when the Fed dropped the discount rate to 1% in 2004. That's how we got in this mess is the first place. 

The markets need time, not more poison.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I agree Ciaran. Karl doesn&#8217;t mention that the US <i>had</i> negative real interest rates when the Fed dropped the discount rate to 1% in 2004. That&#8217;s how we got in this mess is the first place. </p>
<p>The markets need time, not more poison.</p>
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		<title>By: Ciaran</title>
		<link>http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2009/03/18/on-german-concerns-about-us-monetary-policy/#comment-2574</link>
		<dc:creator>Ciaran</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 19 Mar 2009 19:53:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.irisheconomy.ie/?p=1121#comment-2574</guid>
		<description>The cause of the crisis: Greenspan or China?

http://mises.org/story/3382</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The cause of the crisis: Greenspan or China?</p>
<p><a href="http://mises.org/story/3382" rel="nofollow">http://mises.org/story/3382</a></p>
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		<title>By: Michael Crowley</title>
		<link>http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2009/03/18/on-german-concerns-about-us-monetary-policy/#comment-2562</link>
		<dc:creator>Michael Crowley</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 19 Mar 2009 14:51:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.irisheconomy.ie/?p=1121#comment-2562</guid>
		<description>Best not to go there Karl!. Here is Bernanke's take on the Fed's activities (from a speech in md-Fed): "The various credit-related policies I have described  (lending to financial institutions, providing liquidity directly to key credit markets, and buying longer-term securities) all act to increase the size of both the asset and liability sides of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet….Some observers have expressed the concern that, by expanding its balance sheet, the Federal Reserve will ultimately stoke inflation. The Fed's lending activities have indeed resulted in a large increase in the reserves held by banks and thus in the narrowest definition of the money supply, the monetary base. However, banks are choosing to leave the great bulk of their excess reserves idle, in most cases on deposit with the Fed. Consequently, the rates of growth of broader monetary aggregates, such as M1 and M2, have been much lower than that of the monetary base. At this point, with global economic activity weak and commodity prices at low levels, we see little risk of unacceptably high inflation in the near term; indeed, we expect inflation to be quite low for some time.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Best not to go there Karl!. Here is Bernanke&#8217;s take on the Fed&#8217;s activities (from a speech in md-Fed): &#8220;The various credit-related policies I have described  (lending to financial institutions, providing liquidity directly to key credit markets, and buying longer-term securities) all act to increase the size of both the asset and liability sides of the Federal Reserve&#8217;s balance sheet….Some observers have expressed the concern that, by expanding its balance sheet, the Federal Reserve will ultimately stoke inflation. The Fed&#8217;s lending activities have indeed resulted in a large increase in the reserves held by banks and thus in the narrowest definition of the money supply, the monetary base. However, banks are choosing to leave the great bulk of their excess reserves idle, in most cases on deposit with the Fed. Consequently, the rates of growth of broader monetary aggregates, such as M1 and M2, have been much lower than that of the monetary base. At this point, with global economic activity weak and commodity prices at low levels, we see little risk of unacceptably high inflation in the near term; indeed, we expect inflation to be quite low for some time.</p>
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		<title>By: Karl Whelan</title>
		<link>http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2009/03/18/on-german-concerns-about-us-monetary-policy/#comment-2553</link>
		<dc:creator>Karl Whelan</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 19 Mar 2009 13:49:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.irisheconomy.ie/?p=1121#comment-2553</guid>
		<description>@Michael: Perhaps we could get into a debate about the meanings of "literally" and "effectively"!  More seriously, it's indeed interesting to see Bernanke refer to the balance sheet expansion in that fashion.  The Fed certainly is using its money creation powers to full effect so in that sense the phrase is correct.  But there's been no explosion in "printing" of money and (at least until yesterday) nothing that resembled the helicopter drop picture suggested by Herr Zimmerman.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>@Michael: Perhaps we could get into a debate about the meanings of &#8220;literally&#8221; and &#8220;effectively&#8221;!  More seriously, it&#8217;s indeed interesting to see Bernanke refer to the balance sheet expansion in that fashion.  The Fed certainly is using its money creation powers to full effect so in that sense the phrase is correct.  But there&#8217;s been no explosion in &#8220;printing&#8221; of money and (at least until yesterday) nothing that resembled the helicopter drop picture suggested by Herr Zimmerman.</p>
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		<title>By: Andy</title>
		<link>http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2009/03/18/on-german-concerns-about-us-monetary-policy/#comment-2547</link>
		<dc:creator>Andy</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 19 Mar 2009 11:53:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.irisheconomy.ie/?p=1121#comment-2547</guid>
		<description>The concerns about inflation are not focused on the current prints. Most people undersand that the Fed is merely counteracting a strong deflationary shock.

However, the concerns of Christof Schmidt and others focus on the medium-term: once the Fed has put all of these programs in pace, will they withdraw them with equal alacrity once the economy and markets show signs of righting themselves. That is doubtful, for three reasons: 1) they'll be in so deep that extricating themselves will risk upsetting the apple cart in a big way, 2) if they throw all of their efforts into preventing deflation, they can almost certainly do it, as per the helicopter analogy. But all this means is that we won't get deflation, we'll get...something else. Ergo, just by the way that they are working to lop off the left tail of the distribution, inflationary risks are rising, given lack of policy omniscience, 3) evidence from the last easing cycle is discouraging, as the Fed kept rates way too low for way too long, contributing hugely to the problems before us today.

John McHale: fortunate to have Bernanke? let's see: the movie's not over yet. That's what people said about Greenspan, and look where that got us.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The concerns about inflation are not focused on the current prints. Most people undersand that the Fed is merely counteracting a strong deflationary shock.</p>
<p>However, the concerns of Christof Schmidt and others focus on the medium-term: once the Fed has put all of these programs in pace, will they withdraw them with equal alacrity once the economy and markets show signs of righting themselves. That is doubtful, for three reasons: 1) they&#8217;ll be in so deep that extricating themselves will risk upsetting the apple cart in a big way, 2) if they throw all of their efforts into preventing deflation, they can almost certainly do it, as per the helicopter analogy. But all this means is that we won&#8217;t get deflation, we&#8217;ll get&#8230;something else. Ergo, just by the way that they are working to lop off the left tail of the distribution, inflationary risks are rising, given lack of policy omniscience, 3) evidence from the last easing cycle is discouraging, as the Fed kept rates way too low for way too long, contributing hugely to the problems before us today.</p>
<p>John McHale: fortunate to have Bernanke? let&#8217;s see: the movie&#8217;s not over yet. That&#8217;s what people said about Greenspan, and look where that got us.</p>
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		<title>By: Michael Crowley</title>
		<link>http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2009/03/18/on-german-concerns-about-us-monetary-policy/#comment-2545</link>
		<dc:creator>Michael Crowley</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 19 Mar 2009 11:05:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.irisheconomy.ie/?p=1121#comment-2545</guid>
		<description>In his CBS interview last Sunday, explaining the recent expansion of the Fed balance sheet, Ben Bernanke said the Fed is (quote) "printing money...effectively"</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In his CBS interview last Sunday, explaining the recent expansion of the Fed balance sheet, Ben Bernanke said the Fed is (quote) &#8220;printing money&#8230;effectively&#8221;</p>
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		<title>By: Marcus</title>
		<link>http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2009/03/18/on-german-concerns-about-us-monetary-policy/#comment-2542</link>
		<dc:creator>Marcus</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 19 Mar 2009 10:15:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.irisheconomy.ie/?p=1121#comment-2542</guid>
		<description>Why all the concern about inflation? &lt;a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&#38;sid=aUVU0DZzBXnw&#38;refer=home" rel="nofollow"&gt;It's not exactly out of control&lt;/a&gt;. I always thought c2% was considered a reasonable target?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Why all the concern about inflation? <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&amp;sid=aUVU0DZzBXnw&amp;refer=home" rel="nofollow">It&#8217;s not exactly out of control</a>. I always thought c2% was considered a reasonable target?</p>
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		<title>By: Graham Stull</title>
		<link>http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2009/03/18/on-german-concerns-about-us-monetary-policy/#comment-2541</link>
		<dc:creator>Graham Stull</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 19 Mar 2009 10:03:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.irisheconomy.ie/?p=1121#comment-2541</guid>
		<description>Today's announcement of "hot off the presses" quantative easing is truly a radical departure from policy. I think there is more to this sudden and jittery sprint to the printing presses than a targeted anti-deflation measure.

The FT has been reporting that auctions on the T-bond floor have been increasingly nervous affairs, and demand from overseas buyers has pretty much dried up. But there's still one buyer of T-notes who doesn't mind a high risk of (inflationary) default: Helicopter Ben. After all, it's just Monopoly money to him.

For those still convinced that this fiscal stimulus madness is the right approach, ask yourselves this: What is the strategy to employ if the stimulus measures don't work? When does Obama begin reigning in inflation and spending if, in 2010, 11, 12, the US economy is still underpreforming?

What exactly is the exit strategy for kickstarting a dead horse that refuses to gallop?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Today&#8217;s announcement of &#8220;hot off the presses&#8221; quantative easing is truly a radical departure from policy. I think there is more to this sudden and jittery sprint to the printing presses than a targeted anti-deflation measure.</p>
<p>The FT has been reporting that auctions on the T-bond floor have been increasingly nervous affairs, and demand from overseas buyers has pretty much dried up. But there&#8217;s still one buyer of T-notes who doesn&#8217;t mind a high risk of (inflationary) default: Helicopter Ben. After all, it&#8217;s just Monopoly money to him.</p>
<p>For those still convinced that this fiscal stimulus madness is the right approach, ask yourselves this: What is the strategy to employ if the stimulus measures don&#8217;t work? When does Obama begin reigning in inflation and spending if, in 2010, 11, 12, the US economy is still underpreforming?</p>
<p>What exactly is the exit strategy for kickstarting a dead horse that refuses to gallop?</p>
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		<title>By: Brian</title>
		<link>http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2009/03/18/on-german-concerns-about-us-monetary-policy/#comment-2528</link>
		<dc:creator>Brian</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 18 Mar 2009 21:05:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.irisheconomy.ie/?p=1121#comment-2528</guid>
		<description>Surely buying long-term government bonds with newly created money does increase nominal private wealth in the economy. Is the newly created money not perceived to be worth more than the bonds? Witness the huge jump in the price of bonds today in response to the announcement that the Fed is to buy $300bn worth of bonds. So it appears to me as if the Fed is indeed giving new money away (by buying overpriced bonds).</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Surely buying long-term government bonds with newly created money does increase nominal private wealth in the economy. Is the newly created money not perceived to be worth more than the bonds? Witness the huge jump in the price of bonds today in response to the announcement that the Fed is to buy $300bn worth of bonds. So it appears to me as if the Fed is indeed giving new money away (by buying overpriced bonds).</p>
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		<title>By: Patrick Honohan</title>
		<link>http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2009/03/18/on-german-concerns-about-us-monetary-policy/#comment-2527</link>
		<dc:creator>Patrick Honohan</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 18 Mar 2009 20:54:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.irisheconomy.ie/?p=1121#comment-2527</guid>
		<description>Karl, You are right.  Yet at the end of the day I bet there will be more inflation in US than in Europe as loss allocation of the crisis works its way through the two systems in their different ways.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Karl, You are right.  Yet at the end of the day I bet there will be more inflation in US than in Europe as loss allocation of the crisis works its way through the two systems in their different ways.</p>
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		<title>By: Matt</title>
		<link>http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2009/03/18/on-german-concerns-about-us-monetary-policy/#comment-2521</link>
		<dc:creator>Matt</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 18 Mar 2009 18:49:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.irisheconomy.ie/?p=1121#comment-2521</guid>
		<description>Oh Dear.

You can't solve the problem of inflation and low interest rates with *more* inflation and *lower* interest rates. 

So the race to see who will be the worst Fed Chairman continues.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Oh Dear.</p>
<p>You can&#8217;t solve the problem of inflation and low interest rates with *more* inflation and *lower* interest rates. </p>
<p>So the race to see who will be the worst Fed Chairman continues.</p>
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		<title>By: John McHale</title>
		<link>http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2009/03/18/on-german-concerns-about-us-monetary-policy/#comment-2519</link>
		<dc:creator>John McHale</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 18 Mar 2009 18:26:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.irisheconomy.ie/?p=1121#comment-2519</guid>
		<description>Karl, I think you are absolutely right.   It is hard to imagine anyone as uniquely qualified as Ben Bernanke to recognise the nature of financial/macro crisis in which the world has found itself, and to have such a grasp of the non-conventional tools that could be used to fight it.   Although we are not out of the woods yet, we are all very fortunate to have him.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Karl, I think you are absolutely right.   It is hard to imagine anyone as uniquely qualified as Ben Bernanke to recognise the nature of financial/macro crisis in which the world has found itself, and to have such a grasp of the non-conventional tools that could be used to fight it.   Although we are not out of the woods yet, we are all very fortunate to have him.</p>
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