Shifting ownership of Irish banks

Given the current interest in ownership of the Irish banks, I thought readers might be interested to read about the size distribution of shareholders.

AIB provides the most interesting data, reported in their recently published Annual Report and relating to end-December 2008.

There have been some interesting shifts in the past year.  First of all, shareholders in the Republic (including pension funds etc.) now hold 41 per cent of the shares, up from 37 per cent last year.

Second, in the face of dramatic declines in price and increase in volatility, the number of AIB shareholders has increased by over 10 per cent or 10,000 persons.  Almost all of the increase relates to the Republic, and almost all hold less than 5000 shares.  (Today, the shares closed at €0.81).  This confirms what was known anecdotally, namely that lots of middle income people thought it worth taking a flutter on bank shares given the novelty that they were only worth cents.  They have bought these shares from foreign institutions.

For, although there over 90,000 AIB shareholders in total, of whom 76,000 in the Republic, fewer than 5000 shareholders hold more than 10,000 shares, and just 384 hold more than 100,000 shares.

Bank of Ireland had about 80,000 shareholders when it last reported the number, about a year ago.  (We’ll likely see a similar pattern to the changes when the March 2009 figures are published.)

A look at Irish Life and Permanent‘s reports (giving shareholders at end March 2009) shows a similar, though smaller trend: they now have over 135,000 shareholders up about 1%.  All but 10,000 of them have fewer than 1000 shares each, but most of the newcomers seem to have between 1000 and 10000).

Anglo Irish Bank had far fewer shareholders — fewer than 20,000; just over 100 of them held 85% of the total shares between them.

Haircuts

Here are the estimates from Davy Research for the different types of property loans held by Irish banks. (Access, however, limited to customers of Davy.)

Their summary:  “Gauging the appropriate haircut is a function not just of the asset value; rather, it also hinges on the original loan to value, the vintage of the loan and the provisions made. Our analysis suggests a range of mark to market haircuts: from as low as 5% for loans backed by UK commercial investment property to 44% in the case of loans backed solely by Irish development land.”

Bottom line in terms of state ownership:   The base case delivers ownership by the state of 78 percent for AIB and 69 percent for Bank of Ireland.

Unemployment Up to 11.4% in April

Today’s release shows that the standardised unemployment rate, which is based on the Live Register, rose to 11.4% in April from 11% in March. 

I’m tempted to greet the four-tenths increase as a sign that the pace of slowdown is moderating relative to the disastrous increases observed in January and February.   This is pretty cold comfort—this is still consistent with an annualised pace of increase in the unemployment rate of almost 5%—but I guess second derivatives have to turn negative before we reach a global maximum. 

On the whole, though, I still reckon we’re looking a double digit rate of decline for average-over-average GDP this year.

Sarah Carey on NAMA and Nationalisation

Sarah Carey’s article in today’s Irish Times is worth reading because it is perhaps the most articulate version yet of the key argument that tends to convince people that nationalisation is a bad idea and that NAMA and limited state ownership is the way to go.  The government has made a series of arguments against nationalisation but it’s hard for them to bluntly say “we don’t want to own the banks because we’re scared we’ll make a mess of them.”  But an opinion columnist can and this is the essence of Carey’s argument.

I think Sarah is too pessimistic about the long-term performance of semi-state bodies in Ireland and that, in any case, there’s little point in applying these analogies to businesses for which state ownership is an explicitly temporary measure. 

Beyond that, at the risk of making Sarah’s head hurt a bit more, let me put the case for why she should trust her instincts and support the college boys.

Global Finance Academy Conference at UCD

ANNOUNCING

THE GLOBAL FINANCE ACADEMY CONFERENCE

at the University College Dublin Michael Smurfit Graduate Business School

May 27, 2009

The Global Finance Academy at the University College Dublin Michael Smurfit Graduate Business School would like to announce the 3rd Global Finance Academy Conference. The conference is a one-day event and our speakers include Don Bredin, Claudio Loderer, Philip Molyneux, Maureen O’Hara, Lucio Sarno, and Matthew Spiegel.