As the frantic build-and-sell progressed, the land areas became smaller (how is that possible? They were already the size of postage stamps!) and the houses built more poorly, but still the prices went up.

The residential property here, were one to apply any reasonable valuation, will likely not approach those unreal values for many, many years to come. NAMA thinks it can wait a little while; I think that the Government will end up being Ireland’s largest landlord, not peoperty seller.

The FF/PD governments from 1997 were active facilitators of this Ponzi culture with their tax breaks and light touch regulation.

Bertie, Charlie, Mary, Michael and Brian must all take a big share of the responsibility for this fine mess they have gotten us into. Their misguided and/or irresponsible approach to managing the Irish economy in the 1997- 2007 period rules them out of a credible role in sorting out this mess. I simply do not trust them. I suspect I am not alone in this.

The world has moved on. The external benign and supporting factors of the NICE (Non-inflationary, Constantly Expanding) era in the 1990s (that gelled with domestic reforms) no longer exist. While Ireland took the last decade out to gorge on property speculation, other small economies learned from Ireland’s experience in the 1990s and are now positioned to ride the next wave.

Ireland will muddle through, but at a huge cost in terms of blighted lives and crushed hopes. It is a recurrent cycle. We skinned the calves for de Valera in the 30s, built the motorways and airports for the Brits in the 50s and 60s, and put our shoulders to the economic wheels in Britain, the US and Australia in the 80s. All one is left with is fury at the avoidable waste.

But, is the property market in Ireland, considering its illiquidity, not potentially an asymmetric market?

By this I mean that because the market doesn’t currently exist - especially the ‘investment property’ market - that prices set in the market remain untested. The only information available is the asking price from the vendor, or the estimated market price decided by a valuation. Because there is no information from buyers, the market becomes asymmetric.

Most hypothesis require a transaction, to have both a buyer and a seller. A market that has neither willing buyers or sellers escapes traditional analysis.

So the government gets to guess the market value. Then they get to guess the ‘long-term economic value’. And pay somewhere in between.

I did say this before, but half of this guess-work could be eliminated if the legislation allowed NAMA to decide on a value between zero and the ‘long-term BS’.

If only Karl Whelan, Brian Lucey and Morgan Kelly could tune up their guitars , “NAMA’s a Bailout” could become a Summer 2009 hit!