Comments on: July Live Register Figures

By: Ronan L

Ronan L — Mon, 10 Aug 2009 16:06:11 +0000

Did a whole pile of comments disappear from this blog post?
Or am I going loo-lah? (Even more so.)

By: Brendan Walsh

Brendan Walsh — Sat, 08 Aug 2009 15:40:05 +0000

@Niall
While the figures for the total Live Register are seasonally adjusted, the figures in the Charts are not.
I tend to agree with you that historically-based seasonal adjustments are not likely be to too relevant during the current turmoil in the labour market.

By: Niall

Niall — Sat, 08 Aug 2009 12:31:22 +0000

Can I suggest that there is a far simpler explanation - emigration. Those under 25 are more likely to leave than older people who are have family and other commitments. Also I fail to see the relevance of seasonally adjusted figures. Are all those season public service jobs going to be filled in September? I think not!

There was a post on progressive economy some weeks ago, which used mobile phone numbers to suggest emigration was back with a vengence.
http://www.progressive-economy.ie/2009/07/where-have-all-people-gone.html

By: Conor McGarry

Conor McGarry — Sat, 08 Aug 2009 00:45:00 +0000

Here is a chart showing the monthly changes in the total live register (seasonally adjusted) figures:

From Live Register

By: Kevin O'Reilly

Kevin O'Reilly — Fri, 07 Aug 2009 22:39:55 +0000

The same phenomenon appears to be happening in the US according to Floyd Norris, the chief financial correspondent of The New York Time.

http://norris.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/08/07/not-as-bad-but-not-good/?hp