The Economics of “Don’t Scare the Horses”
This post was written by Karl Whelan
What it set me thinking about though was the following. As I’ve said, I think the statement in the article about the deficit is accurate and wholly defensible. However, what if it wasn’t? What if it was as badly thought out as Dr. FitzGerald seemed to think on Monday morning?
Would such an intervention actually cause problems for Ireland in the sovereign bond market as Dr. FitzGerald believes? The argument in favour of this position is something to do with its effect on “investor sentiment.” The argument against is that the sovereign bond market is populated by hard-headed individuals who rely on expert analysts that do their sums on revenues, expenditures and fiscal sustainability for every country and won’t pay any attention if some group of idiot economists put out a bad forecast.
I’d be interested in the thoughts of those who read this blog and have a closer connection to these markets than I do.
More generally, I do wonder whether “Don’t Scare the Horses” is just another version of the regular exhortation not to “Talk Down the Economy.” My feeling is that consumer and investor sentiment play a role in the economy but that this can never justify calls to limit free speech regarding economic fundamentals.
Update: A report on the latest Exchequer statement on the websites of both the Irish Independent and Irish Examiner states “The figures, published this afternoon, show a budget deficit of €18.7 billion for the first eight months of the year, compared to €8.4 billion for the same period last year.” Does this mean that the Independent and Examiner are now also being irresponsible and destabilising for referring to the Exchequer deficit as the budget deficit?
Tags: Garrett FitzGerald