Good overall analysis there. You said,

“The Gardai cannot even close head-shops the proliferation of which is a very, very sad reflection on the state of this country. Ireland is a sad place right now and when Krugman was asked what did he envisage for the people of Ireland over the next 5 years he said i”n a word pain”. Personally, I think the pain will become too much and the country will convulse itself.”

Yeah, I hear what Karl Whelan is saying in relation to the Fintan O’Toole column in IT March 02nd 2010, on the other thread. But the fact is, it is so difficult for journalists to engage in debate properly, when the full facts are obscured by investigations, which seem to be dragging on for 18 months now. Especially, given that in 2008, an awful lot of the reality was becoming clear to me, and other people in our everyday affairs. I mean, I didn’t even follow the Taoiseach Ahern whole saga, and I couldn’t be even bothered an iota. I still couldn’t. But I do feel, to pick up on Mr. Paul Krugman’s point about Ireland - how could he utter anything else, when we cannot even come forth and hold public trials, of inquiry into the banks, name and shame individuals and promptly put them away? They had basic rules for the Dick Turpins in the past. That seems to have gone away with time however. I accept the legal system is there to protect us all. But it seems like a disproportionate no. of financial crooks, escape through the net. That is all I am saying, a disproportionate number. I know that modern cyber crime has exceeded the capabilities and resources of security forces to chase after, but still. Using old fashioned methods, there must be something we can get to stick? BOH.

There will be more of these to come:

http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/aib-boss-faces-quiz-over-8364774m-loan-to-tycoon-2085227.html

Robert Browne
You may also be accurate! This whole mess comes back to the voters who among others, elect that FG type in Tipperary, whose name I have thankfully forgotten and care less about. Rest assured that those who are members of certain societies will remain immune from any consequence, other than an early retirement.

I am astonished that posters have not gone into this issue but it will become more real as time and pain goes on.

Greg
Sorry.

The Gardai cannot even close head-shops the proliferation of which is a very, very sad reflection on the state of this country. Ireland is a sad place right now and when Krugman was asked what did he envisage for the people of Ireland over the next 5 years he said i”n a word pain”. Personally, I think the pain will become too much and the country will convulse itself.

What is plain to see is that the plan the “masters of the universe” have is that they will still be able to send their children to finishing school in Paris or America. We have just had 13 years of Tribunal mockery from the most privileged section of the legal glitterati. I know barristers and they might as well be on the dole because they are not in the inner sanctum.

As Brian Lucy remarked on the Front Line tonight with Pat Kenny (01-03-1010) “a lot of people think that NAMA is going to be a retirement home for barristers” and other so-called professionals. I agree. NAMA whether it works or not, and these people don’t care a whit whether it works or not, will deliver gobs of money to our professional classes and that is what it is designed to do.

While they waffle on about LTEV they will be milking NAMA for every cent they have and I believe they have already exceeded their legal bill for all of 2010 and we are only into March. Surprise, surprise.

This is not about getting credit flowing and it never was, this was always about conjuring up an SPV for the golden circle to carry them on the next leg of their selfish journey. It remains to be seen whether the EU will reign in NAMA with regard to valuations etc but even if it does, their attitude will be, who cares, as long as the Invoices are paid and the Irish tax payer services the interest on NAMA…. we are on the pigs back.

Where the whole thing will fall apart is if the Irish tax payer back is not broad enough to bear the weight of the deflationary government policies, which has trimmed it’s supports for sustaining jobs, has increased stealth taxes four fold, expects businesses to function without credit, runs up a Gross National debt of 110% of GDP, (was 25% end of 2007) blows the NPRF by way of recapitalising and nationalising insolvent banks (Anglo will never trade again) sucks every cent it can from the capital program. Does all this while ignoring the elephant in the room which is the next massive wave of defaults coming down the line (1) defaults on residential mortgages and BTL and (2) The problem with commercial premises from Athlone to Grafton street where businesses are queueing up demanding lower rent or we will hand back keys and fold. Problem there is, that many of these individuals and syndicates are leveraged up to the hilt and need the rent roll. So you can see the problems are piling high and the government are moving the deck chairs.

Listen Robert, we have no one to blame only ourselves. We still have nothing prosecuted, after more than 12 months of Gardai investigations. I already knew 12 months ago, that BUPA Ireland was raided by Taoiseach Ahern and his friends, at the same time they were doing their utmost to milk the DDDA dry also. The brief summary is here:

http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2010/03/01/the-economics-of-something-must-be-done/#comment-37835

The basic concept, or plan, was to ensure that made-up master(s) of the universe, the Irish build-er(s) were propped up, as phoney prize-fighter(s). Taoiseach Ahern’s only responsibility was to ensure, simple minded build-er(s) kept on believe-ing the fairy tale he spun for them. I think, the version of Rocky, where Bilbao realises he has defended against no one, since beating Apollo Creed, hits the nail on the head. BOH.

Form at Sect 4 …. (c) “Who is the beneficiary?”

“Banks AIB, BoI, Anglo Irish Bank Irish Life and Permanent, Irish Nationwide. International bond holders and hedge funds and pension funds who’s asset values are to be re-inflated by NAMA using tax payer commitments lasting 15 to 20 years”.

(d) For what purpose was the alleged aid given (if known)?

“To remove toxic assets from bank balance sheets to get credit lending again to business. However, these banks are insolvent, will become much smaller and will spend years repairing their balance sheets.

Grounds of Complaint Sect 5
“The government in acting to prop up insolvent banks are wasting tax payer money are saving banks shareholders and bond holders. The government in creating a state monopoly property holding company called NAMA guarantees that no other company or individual within the state can compete on level terms. Having failed to regulate they now want to regulate by monopoly and granting of sweeping legislative powers. NAMA will end in state bankruptcy and will have major implications for monetary union”.

I believe the commission must refuse Anglo or as Morgen Kelly said, “Might as well take the money to Stephen’s Green and burn it”.

Thanks for the clarification. On front page of IT today: Anglo Irish Bank will report record losses of up to €12bn.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/frontpage/2010/0301/1224265372916.html

BTW, in my time-line blog piece, North Wall Quay Time Line, I was very careful to construct it, while on purpose, omitting NAMA and former Taoiseach Ahern from the time-line. Because they tend to over-shadow far too much. That is what grabs the media attention. I managed to do that, except, I had to mention that Bertie installed Sean Fitzpatrick as director in the DDDA, around the time Liam Carroll had gained control of Dunloe Ewart in 2002. When you consider that, former Taoiseach Ahern referred to Mr. Dunne, affectionately as ‘The Dunn-er’, and when you consider the relationship between Ahern, Fitzpatrick and Dunne - and between Carroll and Fitzpatrick, and Dunne and Carroll.

Well, you get the picture don’t you? It was effectively Ahern, Fitzpatrick and Dunne (who had ram-sacked the DDDA for what it was worth) against a single individual, Carroll, who was trying to operate the do business in the DDDA’s jurisdiction. None of this is interesting, except for the fact that DDDA and Anglo were joined together at the hip - and the taxpayer has pumped million(s) and billion(s) into both. What the media is so asleep on that, is beyond my comprehension. BOH.

“I have seen things you people wouldn’t believe, attack ships on fire off the shoulder of Orion, I watched Seabeams glitter in the dark near the Tannhauser Gate, all those moments will be lost in time like tears in rain, time to die .”

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NOW4QiOD-oc

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/frontpage/2010/0301/1224265372916.html

“Anglo’s new management team is taking an aggressive yet realistic view of the bank’s exposure to the collapsing property sector and wider economy. The bank plans to recognise higher losses on business loans.”

Time to Die

Fianna Fail and the Green Party have one time and one time only to explain why they are providing €15,000,000,000 to Anglo Irish Bank and Irish Nationwide Building Society, and why they are indebting the Irish People with that €15,000,000,000.

Time is running out on this farce.

The €7,000,000,000 cash given in Preference Shares to AIB and BofI is now known to be farce.

Time to Die

Add it up people.

Never mind NAMA. We’re already looking at €22,000,000,000 added to the National Debt.

For what?

“Greg says: “The book keeping will be done by the ECB.” I was throwing out some old newspapers this afternoon, and I came across Dan O’Brien’s article from the SBP, 10th Jan 2010.”

Brian,

I don’t think you understand me.

The “bookkeeping” I refer to is not that some French, Dutch, German or Turk is going to put manners on the “Irish” to make sure that they don’t “overpay” for Anglo Irish Bank.

What I mean is that the French, Dutch, German and Turks will make sure that “Ireland” overpays for Anglo Irish Bank.

That’s the “bookkeeping” Brian.

The “Irish State” must provide the Turks with €15bn to pay of the debts Anglo Irish Bank.

Again thanks for reminding me of Global Research.

http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=17736

The “Macro” “Economists” need to believe that the “State” will prove their philosophy correct, though I suspect most of them don’t know that they are the philosophers of their own destruction.

They expect “some state”, “some central bank”, “some king or queen”, “some messiah” to increase the productive capacity of the thing they observe.

And when it is no longer capable of their observation they will plead to their Gods and beg indulgence.

And their Gods will say “Thanks for believing, your State is lost, your Money is worthless, your Government lied, your Messiah is crucified”.

And the Macro Economist said to the Lord, “Why did you do this Lord”.

And the Lord said, “Because you believed”

The other six directors were Mary Moylan from the Department of the Environment; Declan McCourt, a director of Bank of Ireland; Angela Cavendish, of Alexsam Corporate Finance; accountant Donall Curtin; Niamh O’Sullivan of Arup, consultant engineers employed on the Irish Glass Bottle (IGB) site in Ringsend; and Joan O’Connor, an award-winning architect.

It should be noted here, that Joan O’Connor, member of the executive board on the DDDA, was the cheer leader for developer Mr. Sean Dunne’s and his famous ballbridge project. Mr. Dunne, being the man who took the DDDA to court, about the planning permission for the North Quay Investments project (owned and operated by Liam Carroll).

BOH.

To me, it seems very simple. Liam Carroll owned 15 acres next door to the Irish Glass Bottle site, and would have both the IGB site too, only that Anglo put it beyond his reach, at the €412 million price tag. One must remember, Carroll owned a large chunk of North Wall Quay, huge tracts of the North Lotts, Ringsend and had the shareholding in Irish Ferries. The idea of having McNamara in the joint venture was arranged, so that two of the best build-er(s) in the city got into a stand-off. If you ever watch kids fighting in a school yard, there is always one smart-alec standing up against the wall, smiling away, who managed to start it. (That was Anglo btw)

Nick Webb and Louise McBride, did an article in the Sunday Independent, February 15 2009, Lifting a lid on Anglo’s links to the docklands, which explores all of the connections between Anglo and the DDDA. Effectively, the DDDA was a non-state funded, state owned planning authority, which was under Anglo dictatorship for much of its existence. Indeed, the two organisations grew up together from childhood. One is a twin of the other. I haven’t a huge problem with that, except that an all financial dominated executive board, didn’t understand the planning side of what was going on - namely, the ‘revised scheme’ for North Lotts and Ringsend, which DDDA senior management had undertaken. BOH.

Thanks for the link. It will be interesting to see what ‘value’ Nama will place on the toxic loans to the Becbay consortium. Some are estimating the writedown at over 80%. With the EU in charge this may be nearer the mark for the overall writedown, rather than the 30% as mooted by Lenihan. Majority ownership of the banks by the state is inevitable.

Much is known already about the Becbay debacle. More will be added by the reports when published. Cowen has questions to answer.

“What the directors agreed that morning is regarded as so ruinous for the taxpayer that there are rumblings that it could topple the government.”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/ireland/article7043853.ece

Opps.

Time to die.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/ireland/article7044032.ece

If you are interested, the Sunday Tribune had the best article probably, which reveals the actual time-line of all dealings to do with the Irish Glass Bottle factory site.

http://www.tribune.ie/business/article/2010/jan/17/mcnamaras-next-battle/

BOH.

“This is in keeping with a long-term trend that has seen the commission become one of the most aggressive competition authorities in the world, as some of the planet’s largest companies, which have been on the receiving end of its zeal, can attest. Intel, Microsoft, Sun Microsystems and GE have all either been fined hundreds of millions of euro for anticompetitive behaviour or have had their takeover plans thwarted.” BOH.

O’Brien wrote: “If policymakers in Dublin do not concern themselves with moral hazard, their counterparts in Brussels see it as the most important issue beyond the firefighting stage of the crisis. All banks that have received significant state aid will have to submit business plans to the European Commission.”

http://www.sbpost.ie/commentandanalysis/banks-eu-to-call-the-shots-46640.html

BOH.

Thanks for the link. Haven’t looked at Global Research in a while.

@ Joseph

“whatever happened to the original objective of NAMA - getting credit flowing into the economy?”

It was propaganda. Did you actually believe it?

The NAMA money will never see the inside of an Irish bank vault.

The bookkeeping will be done by the ECB.

http://designcomment.blogspot.com/2010/02/ryanair-to-fail.html

But the key issue is, that Lemass created something at a time in Irish history, when people still wanted to believe. They may not have believed, in the 1950s, as UCD historian Tom Garvin would recall. But the point is, they wanted to believe, and many gained some faith, when Lemass became Taoiseach. By the time of the Celtic Tiger however, after the 1980s, I think many of those people had lost hope again. One has to place NAMA in the context of all of that social history. The most interesting one, is how Vincent O’Brien, horse train-er salvaged some the indigenous horse industry, and brought it back from the brink. There is something interesting there. The show jumper(s) for instance were exported for profit, (and lost for good) by our government agencies. BOH.

All the real capital, that underpins banks and stock exchanges, has been lost in bad investments. It cannot be recovered. Where a physical asset stands then good it has some but far less value. Where we had promises on paper, well they are worth maybe 1% or soon will be. Loans are assets to banks. But no one will borrow as they will be unable to pay back, even if the bank was able to get cash for that purpose. Cash will be getting short now. Instant cash in the states in one nation wide bank has recently been made subject to a possible one week delay. Remember that Argentina destroyed all deposit accounts? Don’t worry, it will only affect the middle class. They will have very little left.

TPTB are aware of Minsky. When all the actors in the sytem stick to their lines, it can totter along for a while. It all started for the west, in 1999, but Japan, a very homogenous society, has had it for longer. Some CEOs in the states have decided to call it a day, and their banks are also losing old hands. I doubt that anyone wants to be near the system as it falls over…… any volunteers?

A recap for those like PropertyGal who is no longer reading this blog…
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=17736

“The Irish Times broke a story recently about the IMF telling Brian Lenihan last April that it would not achieve its objective. Sadly, it hit the front page of the paper on the same day that George Lee resigned and was washed away. I also note that the actual IMF guy who told him this is joining the NAMA board.”

Isn’t that the truth. But how much, of the story in general, would wash away - had it not been for a bunch of concerned economic professors, who devoted much of their unpaid time, to the act of getting the story some air time? That is the real question, unfortunately. What the entire NAMA affair should draw into very sharp focus, is the reality, Ireland is a sleep-y nation. Che Gavara, once said to a soldier, a country which cannot read or write, is easily fool-ed. We know in Ireland, that a country which has no economists employed in its civil service (permanent government), and no desire or will to install any, is easily fool-ed also. This is the lasting legacy of my own parents generation - and Willie O’Dea’s generation - which my generation will have to live with. Perhaps it is the fact, that so many of my parents generation emigrated from this country, that people lost all and any focus on domestic matters. In other words, the kitchen larder was wide open for anyone to help themselves. That is precisely what happened. Tighten our belts, and all of that. BOH.

“If Willie O’Dea = intellectual capacity then heaven help us if the rest of the cabinet are below that standard.”

That is exactly the point I wanted to stress. When you look at the Willy O’Dea affair, after all of the rumpus has died down now, you balance up whether the cabinet is better or worse, in matters of NAMA and the economy - and the shocking realisation is, the cabinet is worse of. That puts a heck of a lot into perspective, doesn’t it? BOH.

Sovereign Minsky moment?

More delay is a “Good Idea”. The international, sovereign and banking markets are being targetted now by speculators, who have decided to help speed up matters. The disruption will slow matters down as it will make it clear that credit is scarcer than most think. Much scarcer, as those who were swimming naked are shown up. Buffets business partner Charles Munger has already sounded the death knell of the US economy in SLATE.com. All the signs will be negative very soon, like the Titanic becoming vertical, yet somehow staying out of the water, until…..

Taking on ballast or millstone grit, at this time by borrowing for any but the most urgent of purposes, is sheer folly. There is no r.o.i. on borrowings, even at 0% rates, if asset deflation is running at 10% pa. Iceland? JAPAN!

On this site neither the orthodox nor the heterodox need the IMF to tell us what is patently in front of our eyes …………. check back. Mind the black hole. Black day. The Con-Job of the century on a oh so supine citizenry. 57 seconds to meltdown. I’m off to the rugby - to vent some frustration and lividity; more civilized than a bazooka but almost certainly not as effective.

@Brian O’Hanlon - “The loss of Willy O’Dea’s ‘financial brain’, saw the removal of a substantial amount of the intellectual capacity, from the FF/Green cabinet.”

If Willie O’Dea = intellectual capacity then heaven help us if the rest of the cabinet are below that standard.

@Everyone interested in NAMA

But more to the point, whatever happened to the original objective of NAMA - getting credit flowing into the economy? We seem to be in an even worse place now with many of the smaller banks looking to disengage from Ireland.

The Irish Times broke a story recently about the IMF telling Brian Lenihan last April that it would not achieve its objective. Sadly, it hit the front page of the paper on the same day that George Lee resigned and was washed away. I also note that the actual IMF guy who told him this is joining the NAMA board.

I never saw any follow up of the story in the IT (were they nobbled and told not to pursue it?) and - perhaps I missed it - there doesn’t seem to have been much mention of it on this site.

Any thoughts out there?