Looks like him. Does he not know that empires come and empires go - trick is to learn from them …….. China is more than due, as is India - so lets do business …

(other links in ..er.. moderation; are we rationing links now? (-;)

Ulrich Beck not too impressed with his Chancellor - Le Monde [were Beck an economist, as distinct from a sociologist, he would walk the Nobel Prize for his work on Global Risk - these disciplinary boundaries are a bit of a nuisance anyway and a source of this risk ....... a complex world is interdisciplinary]

“Angela Merkel n’est pas Angela Kohl ou Angela Brandt. Le chancelier Kohl avait déclaré dans son programme de gouvernement pour les années 1991-1994 : “L’Allemagne est notre patrie, l’Europe notre futur.” Willy Brandt avait dit lors de la première session du Bundestag de l’Allemagne réunifiée : “Etre allemand et être européen, désormais, cela va ensemble et, espérons-le, à jamais.” La torsion à laquelle la chancelière Merkel a soumis cette profession de foi froisse un nerf sensible, et pas seulement chez les voisins européens.

Elle n’est pas non plus Maggie Merkel, soumettant d’une main de fer l’Europe à la logique du marché. Elle est Angela Bush.” OUCH!

http://www.lemonde.fr/opinions/article/2010/04/10/non-a-l-allemagne-du-repli-par-ulrich-beck_1331666_3232.html

& More on Greece and others not too pleased with Chancellor Merkel ……….

http://www.eurointelligence.com/article.581+M55f6b498f1b.0.html

But Barry Eichengreen thinks all OK. So all OK …

http://www.eurointelligence.com/article.581+M5960d8a6c59.0.html

Greece matters - Europe Matters: After the Sheeply Shopping spree in the Dail on Black Tuesday I’m going all-in on EU. No big Switzerlands or little Chinas a la Beck’s description of present German policy.

@Greg

an’ keep the Munster Soviet as a wild card …… we learned a few lessons from the last one - there won’t be a kleptocrat in sight during the next one ……. this is the universal nature of the serf-kleptocrat relation.

“I’m thinking of reforming the Munster Soviet”.

‘Twas far from Soviets I was raised. But at this stage it’s difficult to imagine that anything could be worse than the kleptocrats’ paradise that is this “Republic”.

“that guy in Trinity last nite thinks we should all just retire and die”?

This guy?

http://www.borders.com/online/store/TitleDetail?sku=0300154321

Will have a gander at your links.

Yes - I suppose not surprising to see Charlie McG popping up here - true to form.

On derivatives/CDS both Brookings paper and the EU report on similar wavelength ……. bit of reading between lines and one can ‘identify’ who ‘owns’ those CDSs ….. think Wall Street & Big European …. and the battle that Obams will probably lose looking at the power of trillions of dollars in the Derivatives Dealers Club ……… they picked off McGreevy very handily …….. Minister Lagarde seems to be leading here …….. & EU decision on Hedgies will affect IFSC ………. what do the serfs care? I’m thinking of reforming the Munster Soviet … just in case.

On Greece - Future of EU on the line here from its beginning (and riddled with these CDS’derivative) ………. but I’m more optimistic on EU than on PaddySerf-Land at the mo - although that guy in Trinity last nite thinks we should all just retire and die. Not yet … !

“In a sense, Greece is paying the price for the traditional work style of the former Commissioner for the Single Market, Charlie McCreevy, who was known for his close cooperation with the financial corporations.”

Now that Charlie McCreevy has retired maybe he could go into the export business. There seems to be a great need for “Green Jersey’s” in Europe.

From Evans-Pritchard in the Telegraph.

“The brief respite on Greek debt markets has already given way to fresh capital flight. Yields on 10-year Greek bonds surged yesterday to 7.11pc, higher than a week ago. Portuguese bonds began to wobble after Brussels called for more austerity.”

“This court hearing is going to be very dangerous,” said Hans Redeker, currency chief at BNP Paribas. “It could lead to Germany itself being catapulted out of the currency union. Once investors begin to fear this, there will not be single euro in further financing for the EMU periphery.”

Dr Wilhelm Hankel, professor of economics at Frankfurt University ….

“In the end, the only way to save the euro is to shrink the eurozone. There are other candidates”.

Ouch. Who could he possibly mean?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/7591027/Greek-aid-in-doubt-as-German-professors-prepare-court-challenge.html

AN EU perspective - again just off the press - more ‘regulatory capture’
Chalie McCreevy, Financial Warmongers and Speculating on Greece; & NAKED CDSs! PDF available from link below ….

It’s interesting then to read Corporate Europe Observatory’s report Financial Warmongers Set EU Agenda out today which analyses the influence of significant lobby groups from the US and European Financial Services Industry on the EU’s new financial regulation policy.

“In a sense, Greece is paying the price for the traditional work style of the former Commissioner for the Single Market, Charlie McCreevy, who was known for his close cooperation with the financial corporations. In the very beginning, however, McCreevy sounded reassuring. When hell broke loose in the global financial markets in September 2008 (after a prologue in the USA in autumn 2007), he promised a careful and systematic look at the rules governing the derivatives trade in the European Union and to make a break from the previous “light-handed” regulation.

Just a few months later however, he chose the usual suspects as key partners in his work on reforming the derivatives market. The first meeting of the Working Party on Derivatives took place in November 2008, with the Working Party made up of “stakeholders”, by which McCreevy meant the key EU agencies plus all major financial lobby groups including the Alternative Investment Management Association (AIMA), European Banking Federation (EBF), and the International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA).

http://www.irishleftreview.org/2010/04/14/chalie-mccreevy-financial-warmongers-speculating-greece/

In extremis, one can eat leather, according to Hollywood. Hang on tight!

A shame to waste a good crisis even if it was “”"”unpredictable???”"”"!

The Derivatives Dealers Club

Robert Litan of Brookings wrote a paper on the derivatives dealers’ club — the small group of large banks that control most of the market for certain types of derivatives, notably credit default swaps. It’s a blunt analysis of how these banks can and will impede derivatives reform in order to maintain their dominant market position and the rents that flow from it.

http://baselinescenario.com/2010/04/14/the-derivatives-dealers%e2%80%99-club/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+BaselineScenario+%28The+Baseline+Scenario%29

Might find a few of them here - includes the link to Litan’s Brookings Paper … 5 Big Banks … re Buffet;s ‘financial weapons of mass destruction’

http://www.brookings.edu/papers/2010/0407_derivatives_litan.aspx links to the PDF

The Derivatives Dealers’ Club and Derivatives Markets Reform: A Guide for Policy Makers, Citizens and Other Interested Parties, Robert Litan (April 7, 2010)

“who holds the CDSs?”

Indeed. And is the unknown unknown of who is holding the CDS baby the real reason why no bank is allowed to fail.

Why has the IMF got NAB additional committments of a half a trillion dollars. Up from $50bn. Very odd.

I have always thought that French banks have a higher exposure.

There is also talk of Switzerland - no tears lost for Swiss banks in Germany as the German government has been trying to get the Swiss banks to reveal information about German tax dodgers - they have even paid for CDs with the names and account details in order to pursue tax dodgers!!!

Quite.

Greek ten year on the way back up.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=GGGB10YR%3AIND

I would expect that the EU funds will be called on shortly.

Would be interesting to know how much exposure French and German banks have to Greek debt.

Who is really getting bailed out?

http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23824376-greeks-buy-into-london-property.do

“Satyajit Das on Greece - sounds very German today” - does he read this blog?

Satyajit Das on Greece - sounds very German today ………

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2010/04/satyajit-das-new-old-greek-lessons.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+NakedCapitalism+%28naked+capitalism%29

He is not impressed at all at all ….

German Economist to Challenge Greek Plan

Joachim Starbatty, a professor at Tuebingen University and prominent euro sceptic, was quoted by the Rheinische Post paper as saying the aid package breached the EU’s Maastricht Treaty. “We will file a suit at the Constitutional Court against the credit from euro states,” Mr Starbatty told the paper. Several other academics and constitutional lawyer Wilhelm Hankel, who failed to prevent the introduction of the euro in 1998 at the Constitutional Court, are working with Starbatty. [...] Ms Merkel and other top conservatives were reluctant to agree on aid before a vote in the state of North Rhine-Westphalia on May 9th which could see her centre-right coalition lose power there and rob it of a majority in the federal upper house. [...] Handelsblatt attacked politicians for hypocrisy in failing to describe the deal as a bailout.

“The founders of the European currency excluded the possibility that the euro zone members would take on each others debt. Bailouts are banned. But that isn’t stopping the euro zone. They are simply avoiding the term. The deception of the public continues,” the paper said in an editorial.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2010/0414/breaking25.html

Bit of tongue-in-cheek on the 60% - imho Financialization globally out of control for over 20yrs since the first derivatives equation written ……….. capital delinked from capitalism …….. The Matrix is the metaphor that comes nearest …. look around at the mo … Check out The Frankfurt School ……..

And we have just committed 1.885Bn in IMF SDR’s .

Say €1.7bn.

Let’s hope no one makes that call.

http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2010/pr10145.htm

Nevermind that at national debt levels above 80% of GDP a debt trap tends to follow, and the ESRI is not worried about the cost of the bank bailout adding to national debt. Strange country Ireland.

Yes.

Lifestyle changes or migration.

Food disruption? Analyse what is needed for 90 days that cannot be sourced locally, in abundance.

Fuel disruption? Instal a secret tank or two. Fill them.

Pray. Get to know your neighbours real well.

GREEK 52-WEEK T-BILL YIELD 4.85 PCT (PVS 2.20 PCT), BID-TO-COVER RATIO AT 6.5 (PREVIOUS 3.05)

GREEK 26-WEEK T-BILL YIELD 4.55 PCT (PVS 1.38 PCT), COVER RATIO 7.7 (PREVIOUS 4.87)

Very high bid/cover ratio (actually, seems a little bit TOO high - did they really get bids totalling 7.5bn a day after they almost went bust?) but the rates are pretty ugly.

@David O’Donnell - “there is simply too much debt in the global economy, and succinctly suggests wiping out 60% of it on a pro-rata basis globally” - I doubt that those who hold the debt would find this such an attractive option. It might be interesting to look at who ultimately holds the debt.

Yes Al, one of your great moments. A reverse takeover of the United Kingdom - what a coup! We’ll get a few bob from 2_of_7 at Anglo and get the ball rolling! And we’ll get that bit of Fermanagh thrown in as well …

Seriously, there are still a lot of fragile dominos around - within the EZ, eastern Europe, the Baltics, the ex-soviets, the US, the UK, and so on.

Long ways from EZ-street yet. I expect a good bit of summer madness …

Do you have an opinion
about what is going to happen to AIB when 280 million preference share dividend falls in May ( only 3 weeks away). At current share price of 1.50 and EU forcing government to be paid in ordinary shares, surely this is BAD news for AIB shareholders- or am I wrong.

B Peter.

Yes - the colonels, I assume, are not impressed.

@Brian Woods

The Ferengi Brief, in brief, argues that there is simply too much debt in the global economy, and succinctly suggests wiping out 60% of it on a pro-rata basis globally. Referred to as the 5th Protocol in the corridors of power, its mere mention strikes fear into the hearts of all … and joy in the hearts of many, who have yet to hear of it. Paddy the Sovereign must have the inside track because he is covering everything in sight 100% at the moment - how else can we explain such actions? Paddy must have The Brief!