Sorry, I’m not in tune this afternoon. A turning point to what? Recovery? The next dip?

Lies proliferate, usually to the upside. Then they damage trust.

Some are also trying to pretend that things will recover. They have a material interest in that policy. Keeping an appropriate mien while in a crisis is fine, helps save lives etc. Lying to deceive others as their capital is wasted is not a crime, if sufficiently widespread! It is, in certain civil codes, say in France. Not in common law countries.

The overshoot danger is not yet at hand, I suspect. The brains trust on this site cpuld by now have attempted to publicize parameters wherebu we know we are reaching a bottom. Neglecting the IFSC and our FDI program. I am disappointed that no one has yet attempted to do this, despite the awards rightly given to Morgan K et al for warning what was going to happen.

The process will be rough and ready or can be refined but no one is attempting it. Such information would enable those who like me, know and say negative things, to actually point out that a turning point may be close. Hope will soon be a very valuable thing indeed. The deluded, deceiving, whatever, only obscure reality.

You have avoided answering my very direct question, posed earlier to you.

Thinking that one is on the inside may be the last mistake that one makes. Transparency and plutocracy are not compatible?

The economic structures are relatively simple. We now must do without banking, for some time to come. We have done that before. There is no complexity in a pyramid scheme!

Oh BUGGER! Someone has noticed? The problem with kleptocracy is that they frequently have allies who make out like bandits, until the thefts are noticed …. The yanks (we call ‘em septics (sic), here) have been rather clumsy. Their allies may now suffer ….. oh dear.

Do people not get it Pat? Or, they do, but are so immobilized by the prospect that they dismiss it as impossible (relative to their previous experiences, that is)?

I will assume, unless they inform me otherwise, that those on this blog advocating/promoting/predicting a return to +GDP are a tad badly informed about the fundamental characteristics of a Permagrowyh economy and need to engage in a considerable amount of re-evaluation of their economic Model-in-Use.

Some of you have alluded to ‘negativity’ by some commentators. For myself, I know, with a considerable level of ‘negative’ uncertainty, that our economy is firmly in the ‘negative’ direction - for a considerable time to come.

General Prices are increasing - but money supply, M, is also declining (for the moment): so M/P is … …?. Now what does this mean for interest rates? They are, stable? rising? Looks like the latter. So how to restore that Glorious (self-correcting) General Equilibrium of the mandatory, annual, incremental increase in Y*? Should be interesting.

And before you rush to reply: the global labourforce has increased by almost 3 billion! Supply and Demand? Real wages? Aggregate Supply?
Aggregate Demand? Labour supply and capital stock cannot re-locate to equilibrium - but capital, goods and services can! Think this might be a problem for some economies?

One economy’s production surplus shall be another’s consumption (at equilibrium). But the C seems to have taken a bit of a dive! Hmmmm.

Think Marginal. Increase in aggregate GDP requires an increase in both investment (lower interest rate and credit growth) + mandatory, parallel increase in energy use. Now I know we have a tad of a problem with both credit and energy. MP-credit is now ‘negative’. MP-oil (energy IN v energy OUT) is declining. Think these might have a ‘negative’ affect on GDP growth? Hmmmm.

B Peter

I am in favour of transparency, but I recognise the degree to which society and economy depends on complex technical systems. Experts often disagree. Our economic structures have advanced way beyond our capacity to process them politically.

Plutocracy undermines democracy. Powerful individuals and institutions are exploiting the political and regulatory deficit. Competition and predation is part of nature.

So is extinction, so these folk are not all that clever. To the extent that they abuse their insider position, they forfeit political capital. Trust matters. Read Ulrich Beck or Anthony Giddens.

You can concentrate on getting to the top of the tree or you can try to look after the forest. Analysing the economy is one thing, and competing in it is another.

Highly incompatible views can be expressed on this site. Some of the tension is inevitable, in that it arises from standpoint rather than subject matter. Anyone who is up a tree doesn’t really want to hear too much sawing down below !

Worst of all is to pretend that this is a temporary recession with normal economic activity resumed in a month or so. The glad handing rent seekers have an interest in distorting things to make more out of those who take what is in print as gospel.

I will not be a party to it.

Truth has many faces.

Why so you think we need this site ? Surely it’s to help us to establish what the relevant facts are, and then to work towards some consensus on how to interpret them. As you say, the bog is deep. Without patience, goodwill and co-operation, there’s no hope of getting out of it.

I am cynical. You are well rid of me.

Do not be so afraid of the truth. Consider that you have only so many years left. How do you want to spend them? Use emotion to power your reality, not the lies spread by the msm? The banking engine has been broken again. It is a regular, albeit two generational, happening. You are ignorant of what caused the “Great” Depression? History will enlighten. Check when the history was written. The role of banking has been disguised, for a reason. So it has recurred. You are alive. Act on the facts.

Who is this world bank and what do they know? The msm continue to lie by omission. DEPRESSION.Change your lifestyles.

While I wish you success with your business, I cannot see that ‘confidence’ or ‘optimism’ is the answer to our problems. As Pat was hinting, overconfidence and credulousness has led us to this situation. We need harder heads.

Many folk have been hit hard by the bust. The stuff that is coming out is appalling, so emotions are running high. Some of us tend to be a bit outspoken. It’s partly a personal style, but its also a reaction to the fact that we are where we are because others failed to speak up in time about what they knew. If there’s less covering up, the debate will be less tense.

There are huge issues around the viability of a global economic model which is based on ever-expanding consumer credit in the ‘west’ and underpaid labour and savings surpluses in the ‘east’. The fate of of GM and its consumer financing vehicle is instructive. Ireland’s fate is bound up with such processes.

One of the great things about the site is that it has a global reach. Feedback from Australia or anywhere else enriches the debate. We have suffered a lot in the past from the loss of talent which happens with emigration. We are seeing emigration again, and this sort of forum can help to reduce the loss.

As for “Fools” which our Aussie based contributor refers to me as I can only say that this country is surely lucky to be rid of your cynical ilk.

While we looked at the CSO figures for trends our own sales figures were the ones we went on. The headline is Feb 2010 is still down on Feb 2009.

@Margaret
There is economic uncertain “good” and economic uncertain “bad”. In the good things are flying but a prudent business person knows it’s not going to last and builds up reserves, doesn’t make stupid long term commitments. In bad sales are falling, no real sign of an improvement, ominous clouds on the horizon (rising interest rates, another harsh budget in 2010.) In this situation you live off those reserves but you also batten down the hatches, cut costs, reduce inventories. It is a brave person who decides to go on the expansion trail now. It may also be a good time to prudently expand, rents are falling and you could get a cost advantage over competitors. Assuming someone will lend you the money to do it.

In my own business I have a major decision to make in 2 years time, probably less. At the moment there is not enough happening for it to be a positive one. Hopefully that will change.

“‘the economic situation is still uncertain’ - was there ever a time that it wasn’t?”

Maybe in the Republic of Utopia, there is absolute certainty but yes, there have been times when trends - -short or medium term - - were more consistent across major regions of the world than currently.

Economists better or worse than me could have been taken to task on the same score!!

e.g. Galbraith’s “Age of Uncertainty” and Greenspan’s “Age of Turbulence.”

@ All

Private sector economists usually provide useful commentary on key Irish data releases.

e.g as reported here:

http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1019443.shtml

History trumps “science ” every time. Reread what happened in the runup to the first declaration of a depression!

When was it first called in the thirties and by whom? How long before the glad msm took it up?

Reality intrudes. Get used to it.

The CSO take account of virtually every shortcoming you mention. Just looking at two of these.

1. Seasonal Adjustment - all the reported series are seasonally adjusted based on patterns from January 2000 to the present. The Index itself has different weights for each category in each month to account for seasonal patterns in consumption across categories.

2. Differing number of days or weeks per month. Although produced monthly, the Retail Sales Index is actually a weekly average based on a four or five week period. The CSO had 13 weeks per quarter and divides those weeks between the three months in the quarter. The February index just released was based on a weekly average from five weeks of data.

The nerd in you can read the full details here.

I’m sure Brendan O’Connor thought it was all overdone in 2007
http://www.independent.ie/opinion/analysis/the-smart-ballsy-guys-are-buying-up-property-right-now-1047118.html

At some point the negativity will be overdone; we may be past that we may have some way to go… this piece of data today was a nice suprise and made me think… it can be excused away but facts are facts

I would love to be completely and utterly wrong…. I probably am :)

I know, the shame of it.

In my defence however Irish Times journalists are paid to write up such figures so should have higher standards than my carefree posts.

Been in retail since 1991. Firstly we never measure sales performance month to month, only versus last year. Most retail businesses are seasonal.

I was in the DIY sector for 15 years- February was always down on January and it will be that way for most retailers. The January sales are over, not much happens in February. I would have been quite happy to see Feb down on January but would want to see it up on last year. In 2010 January was white washed by the snow in the first week which is the busiest week.

Looking at DIY harware on its own, it was up 4% on January (unheard of in my experience) but down 15.5% on February 2009. That’s pretty miserable.

Better to use the 3 months comparisons to smooth out once offs, change in weekends etc. December through February (excluding cars and bars) was 8.8% down on last year in value terms with every sector down.

Also we’re still seeing some serious deflation. Looking at sales excluding cars and bars volume is down 2% on last Feb but value down 6.6%. Good news for the consumer and indeed the gap between North and South must have narrowed. Bad news for the retailer the margin earned is based on value. Expect a few more to go out of business in the near term.

By the way I’m still in retail on my own account so desperately hoping for recovery soon. But it has to be based on solid figures.

‘the economic situation is still uncertain’ - was there ever a time that it wasn’t?

On the substantive point of the post, I agree with Karl that it is good news. Purchasing big ticket items like cars show a degree of confidence on the part of consumers, and that the spending on cars wasn’t simply a substitute for other spending is perhaps surprising, and, if it is not just a one month blip, worth a quiet cheer.

The decrease in the differential in the VAT rates and the small change in the sterling euro exchange rate seems to be making a difference to the return from the Northern Ireland shopping trip - or in other words, the pull of purchasing power parity is operating, even if slowly.

Now what we have to hope for is a faster upturn in the UK and the US than in Germany, so that we can increase exports while maintaining low interest rates.