Comments on: Latest EPA projections http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2010/04/29/latest-epa-projections/ Sun, 12 Feb 2012 15:08:12 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6.3 By: George http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2010/04/29/latest-epa-projections/#comment-48020 George Fri, 30 Apr 2010 09:56:30 +0000 http://www.irisheconomy.ie/?p=6521#comment-48020 @Eamon Keane Putting together emissions projections is a lengthy process which begins at the point that provisional energy balances become final, in this case around Autumn of 2009, so this more up to date information will feed into the next iteration of the process that begins again at the end of the summer. Re the data itself, and oil in particular, large fall in transport is not surprising. Its very closely correlated with economic growth and the price differential with the UK has closed considerably. Also the oil refinery seems much quieter. Its GHG emissions according to the CITL for 2009 were down about 14%. Only residential oil consumption has held up, no surprise given the poor winters we've had. The statistical difference for oil seems pretty big so I imagine there will be changes in the final balances. @Eamon Keane
Putting together emissions projections is a lengthy process which begins at the point that provisional energy balances become final, in this case around Autumn of 2009, so this more up to date information will feed into the next iteration of the process that begins again at the end of the summer.
Re the data itself, and oil in particular, large fall in transport is not surprising. Its very closely correlated with economic growth and the price differential with the UK has closed considerably. Also the oil refinery seems much quieter. Its GHG emissions according to the CITL for 2009 were down about 14%. Only residential oil consumption has held up, no surprise given the poor winters we’ve had. The statistical difference for oil seems pretty big so I imagine there will be changes in the final balances.

]]> By: Brian O' Hanlon http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2010/04/29/latest-epa-projections/#comment-47943 Brian O' Hanlon Thu, 29 Apr 2010 22:56:06 +0000 http://www.irisheconomy.ie/?p=6521#comment-47943 @ Richard Tol, Have you ever heard mention of this book? http://www.people.hofstra.edu/geotrans/index.html Available in print also by clicking on the link. I was flicking through the virtual pages this evening. I think a lot of the stuff there is mathematical language, for points the Green party were trying to make in political language in Dail debates. For instance, the 'answer isn't electric SUV's', as per a recent Ciaran Cuffe speech. BOH. @ Richard Tol,

Have you ever heard mention of this book?

http://www.people.hofstra.edu/geotrans/index.html

Available in print also by clicking on the link. I was flicking through the virtual pages this evening. I think a lot of the stuff there is mathematical language, for points the Green party were trying to make in political language in Dail debates. For instance, the ‘answer isn’t electric SUV’s’, as per a recent Ciaran Cuffe speech. BOH.

]]> By: Eamon Keane http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2010/04/29/latest-epa-projections/#comment-47934 Eamon Keane Thu, 29 Apr 2010 22:10:24 +0000 http://www.irisheconomy.ie/?p=6521#comment-47934 The figures are suspect, because they're based on SEAI's projections for 2009-2020. I'm surprised the EPA went with these, because they've already been shown to be way off. SEAI's projections, based on modelling, had Irish TPER declining by 1.2% from 2008-2012. Well the provisional energy balance for 2009 was out a few weeks ago and it showed that already, 2009 TPER was down 12% over 2008 (from 16.7Mtoe to 14.6Mtoe). http://www.seai.ie/Publications/Statistics_Publications/Energy_Balance/ The rundown was: Oil -18% Electricity -10% Coal -15% Natural Gas -4% Renewables +10% Have you any insight into the precipitous drop in oil consumption? Oil accounted for 85% of the drop in TPER. The figures are suspect, because they’re based on SEAI’s projections for 2009-2020. I’m surprised the EPA went with these, because they’ve already been shown to be way off.

SEAI’s projections, based on modelling, had Irish TPER declining by 1.2% from 2008-2012. Well the provisional energy balance for 2009 was out a few weeks ago and it showed that already, 2009 TPER was down 12% over 2008 (from 16.7Mtoe to 14.6Mtoe). http://www.seai.ie/Publications/Statistics_Publications/Energy_Balance/

The rundown was:
Oil -18%
Electricity -10%
Coal -15%
Natural Gas -4%
Renewables +10%

Have you any insight into the precipitous drop in oil consumption? Oil accounted for 85% of the drop in TPER.

]]> By: George http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2010/04/29/latest-epa-projections/#comment-47877 George Thu, 29 Apr 2010 16:01:34 +0000 http://www.irisheconomy.ie/?p=6521#comment-47877 Quite a few of our European neighbours have experienced gdp growth and emissions decline over the medium term. (Sweden, UK, Germany..) Ireland's experience to date has tended to have both indicators moving in the same direction (although not at the same pace thankfully). Then again we've never truly tried to rein in emissions growth before. I think banking of credits might be what the NTMA have in mind rather than burning. Even considering the possibility that burning them would be necessary though implies that Richard's (tongue in cheek) theory that reports reduce emissions has some element of truth. Or put more simply that we will actually hit the with additional measures scenario for the 2008-2012 period. Quite a few of our European neighbours have experienced gdp growth and emissions decline over the medium term. (Sweden, UK, Germany..) Ireland’s experience to date has tended to have both indicators moving in the same direction (although not at the same pace thankfully). Then again we’ve never truly tried to rein in emissions growth before.

I think banking of credits might be what the NTMA have in mind rather than burning. Even considering the possibility that burning them would be necessary though implies that Richard’s (tongue in cheek) theory that reports reduce emissions has some element of truth. Or put more simply that we will actually hit the with additional measures scenario for the 2008-2012 period.

]]> By: Mark Dowling http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2010/04/29/latest-epa-projections/#comment-47851 Mark Dowling Thu, 29 Apr 2010 14:19:23 +0000 http://www.irisheconomy.ie/?p=6521#comment-47851 If NTMA can't sell the credits (and the market value will decline as the recession bites further and industrial output dips) then the logical (albeit not exactly environmental sound) option would be to defer environmental measures which decrease carbon output below the amount permitted by the credits, in order of the most expensive per ton CO2e avoided. If NTMA can’t sell the credits (and the market value will decline as the recession bites further and industrial output dips) then the logical (albeit not exactly environmental sound) option would be to defer environmental measures which decrease carbon output below the amount permitted by the credits, in order of the most expensive per ton CO2e avoided.

]]> By: Brian Woods http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2010/04/29/latest-epa-projections/#comment-47828 Brian Woods Thu, 29 Apr 2010 13:17:35 +0000 http://www.irisheconomy.ie/?p=6521#comment-47828 Reduction in emissions (of fossil fuels) = neg GDP. So how do we Growth (all please bow) then? Logic deficit somewhere? B Peter Reduction in emissions (of fossil fuels) = neg GDP. So how do we Growth (all please bow) then? Logic deficit somewhere?

B Peter

]]> By: Pat Donnelly http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2010/04/29/latest-epa-projections/#comment-47771 Pat Donnelly Thu, 29 Apr 2010 11:21:56 +0000 http://www.irisheconomy.ie/?p=6521#comment-47771 Best not to buy anymore! Anyone believe that global cooling is a product of AGW, somehow? Best not to buy anymore!
Anyone believe that global cooling is a product of AGW, somehow?

]]> By: Brian O' Hanlon http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2010/04/29/latest-epa-projections/#comment-47751 Brian O' Hanlon Thu, 29 Apr 2010 10:18:19 +0000 http://www.irisheconomy.ie/?p=6521#comment-47751 Thanks for the update Richard, I was wondering where to locate stats on emissions etc. Can anyone tell me where is the best source of information, in basic format for Ireland's GDP. Probably the CSO website. Anyone have an exact link? Thanks for the update Richard, I was wondering where to locate stats on emissions etc.

Can anyone tell me where is the best source of information, in basic format for Ireland’s GDP. Probably the CSO website. Anyone have an exact link?

]]> By: Al http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2010/04/29/latest-epa-projections/#comment-47748 Al Thu, 29 Apr 2010 10:08:50 +0000 http://www.irisheconomy.ie/?p=6521#comment-47748 @ Richard Not quite the reusuable resource then! @ Richard
Not quite the reusuable resource then!

]]> By: JeromeK http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2010/04/29/latest-epa-projections/#comment-47739 JeromeK Thu, 29 Apr 2010 09:53:51 +0000 http://www.irisheconomy.ie/?p=6521#comment-47739 Trading CO2 - Anyone wanna buy a bottle of air? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7_TsPrlj7Zs this classic sketch is one I still remember from Sesame Street. Trading CO2 - Anyone wanna buy a bottle of air?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7_TsPrlj7Zs

this classic sketch is one I still remember from Sesame Street.

]]> By: Richard Tol http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2010/04/29/latest-epa-projections/#comment-47735 Richard Tol Thu, 29 Apr 2010 09:51:53 +0000 http://www.irisheconomy.ie/?p=6521#comment-47735 These permits exist in electronic format only. They cannot be burnt to warm the house. These permits exist in electronic format only. They cannot be burnt to warm the house.

]]> By: Al http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2010/04/29/latest-epa-projections/#comment-47733 Al Thu, 29 Apr 2010 09:49:53 +0000 http://www.irisheconomy.ie/?p=6521#comment-47733 So We have carbon permits that need to be used?? We could burn them??? So We have carbon permits that need to be used??
We could burn them???

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