@David in Dublin - I would not focus on the deficit figures for Ireland, as I wrote above there are all kinds of vagaries about what is in or out etc. What is important is that the exchequer returns are in line with forecasts so at last we are starting to get to grips with our massive problems. We are doing our bit, the rest is out of our control.

()…… another thread - I should have said the mother of all depressions.”

Unhhh? You agree with me? This will last decades? Who else agrees?

Have we magically avoided the need for any more taxes or cuts this December - or do I need to return to Hogwarts for further training?

Are you happy with an economic system which permits the private appropriation of speculative gain while socialising the losses ? There is, of course, fierce competition among the predators, but the capital markets generally tranfer wealth from the less powerful to the more powerful. It’s rigged.

Gambling with OPM is great fun, maybe, but it has dangerous consequences, as the Greek situation illustrates. As I understand Brian’s position, he would simply like to see some reasonable deterrents for the most gratuituous offenders.

No guillotines or defenestrations, just a few meaningful consequences in the pocket. That seems entirely fair.

“Fake it till we make it?”

Absolutely. Better than simply holding our hands up and letting the markets tear us asunder. I know you’re all in favour of rewriting the socioeconomic/political makeup of this country via some agressive treatment of bank and sovereign creditors, but the EU, the ECB, the IMF and Brian Lenihan quite clearly aint.

Or take it till we cake it?

Or bake it (cook the books) till we rake it?

Crikey is it that bad? Is that why they forecast Greece’s GDP to decline by 3% this year so that they could say “Look at Ireland, they’ve cut their public expenditure and raised taxes and now look at them - their economy will grow by 3% next year” - Neat symmetry, +3% responsible Ireland, -3% irresponsible Greece.

As for the masses, what are they (we!) going to do? Riot? Strike? Withdraw our cash from the banks?

Both INBS and Anglo produced their accounts for year (in Anglo for 15 months) ended 31 Dec 2009 and both include the most recent govt injections (€2.7bn INBS and €8.3bn Anglo). The accounts were published at the end of March 2010. However if they hadn’t been given the injections prior to that (by way of committment or promissory note or cash) then they would have been insolvent to a significant degree. To read the EU report you would get the impression that these injections were contemporaneous with the EU report being written - they weren’t, they must have been known about for at least three months, otherwise the government was operating Anglo on an insolvent basis.

So I just don’t think the EU forecast is credible in that regard.

The report on Ireland finishes with the following:

“On 30 March 2010, the authorities announced the transfer of a first tranche of loans to NAMA and the likely need for further capital injections into some banks. An effect of such capital injections on public finance
developments within the forecast horizon cannot be excluded. However, in the absence of detailed information on the nature and size of these
operations, the forecast does not include any impact.”

The bank recap money will be added but they are ignoring if for now. Expect that 11.7% figure to be much much higher when they do start to take account of the recaps.