Comments on: Moody’s “Negative to Stable” Comment Refers to the Rating Not the Economy http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2010/07/20/moody%e2%80%99s-%e2%80%9cstable%e2%80%9d-comment-refers-to-the-rating-not-the-economy/ Thu, 24 May 2012 02:47:45 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6.3 By: Robert Browne http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2010/07/20/moody%e2%80%99s-%e2%80%9cstable%e2%80%9d-comment-refers-to-the-rating-not-the-economy/#comment-61041 Robert Browne Wed, 21 Jul 2010 18:40:26 +0000 http://www.irisheconomy.ie/?p=7185#comment-61041 Fitch's view of Ireland needs to be revised. http://www.ntma.ie/Publications/2009/fitchRatings_November2009.pdf " Even assuming the government is able to consolidate the budget over the coming years, general government debt (official definition) will peak at 80% of GDP. Government liabilities rise to over 110% of GDP when fiscal funding for the carve out of bad bankassets is taken into account." Fitch’s view of Ireland needs to be revised.

http://www.ntma.ie/Publications/2009/fitchRatings_November2009.pdf

” Even assuming the government is able to consolidate the budget over the coming years, general government debt (official definition) will peak at 80% of GDP. Government liabilities rise to over 110% of GDP when fiscal funding for the carve out of bad bankassets is taken into account.”

]]> By: Mokabaybob http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2010/07/20/moody%e2%80%99s-%e2%80%9cstable%e2%80%9d-comment-refers-to-the-rating-not-the-economy/#comment-60981 Mokabaybob Wed, 21 Jul 2010 11:57:42 +0000 http://www.irisheconomy.ie/?p=7185#comment-60981 Are any of these rating agencies likely to survive the "DonK" Bill just passed in the US Congress? http://www.zerohedge.Dcom/article/did-credit-agencies-just-go-extinct Are any of these rating agencies likely to survive the “DonK” Bill just passed in the US Congress?

http://www.zerohedge.Dcom/article/did-credit-agencies-just-go-extinct

]]> By: Brian Lucey http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2010/07/20/moody%e2%80%99s-%e2%80%9cstable%e2%80%9d-comment-refers-to-the-rating-not-the-economy/#comment-60776 Brian Lucey Tue, 20 Jul 2010 15:44:48 +0000 http://www.irisheconomy.ie/?p=7185#comment-60776 I was in Newstalk this am (from sunny Italy) and commented on thus issue Ivan yeates and Gavin Duffy of dragons den were perfectly ok with the correction I gave them. I was in Newstalk this am (from sunny Italy) and commented on thus issue Ivan yeates and Gavin Duffy of dragons den were perfectly ok with the correction I gave them.

]]> By: Karl Whelan http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2010/07/20/moody%e2%80%99s-%e2%80%9cstable%e2%80%9d-comment-refers-to-the-rating-not-the-economy/#comment-60751 Karl Whelan Tue, 20 Jul 2010 14:30:43 +0000 http://www.irisheconomy.ie/?p=7185#comment-60751 @ JTO I'm all for a bit of ratings-agency bashing and do it myself from time to time. However .... one could say that the biggest mistake that ratings agencies made in the past was being too pessimistic, so it's easy enough to understand why Moody's would look to take a more pessimistic line on growth than the government. @ JTO

I’m all for a bit of ratings-agency bashing and do it myself from time to time. However …. one could say that the biggest mistake that ratings agencies made in the past was being too pessimistic, so it’s easy enough to understand why Moody’s would look to take a more pessimistic line on growth than the government.

]]> By: Ribbit http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2010/07/20/moody%e2%80%99s-%e2%80%9cstable%e2%80%9d-comment-refers-to-the-rating-not-the-economy/#comment-60750 Ribbit Tue, 20 Jul 2010 14:29:34 +0000 http://www.irisheconomy.ie/?p=7185#comment-60750 I think RTE needs to poach some economics heavyweights currently snoring away on the opposition backbenches of Dail Eireann to come and advise their journalists....oh wait, that already....aw forget it. I think RTE needs to poach some economics heavyweights currently snoring away on the opposition backbenches of Dail Eireann to come and advise their journalists….oh wait, that already….aw forget it.

]]> By: Scorpio http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2010/07/20/moody%e2%80%99s-%e2%80%9cstable%e2%80%9d-comment-refers-to-the-rating-not-the-economy/#comment-60746 Scorpio Tue, 20 Jul 2010 14:24:01 +0000 http://www.irisheconomy.ie/?p=7185#comment-60746 @Eoin - explaining things in full requires that the person has an understands of what needs to be explained. On the evidence we see every day RTE should invest in a bit of training. @Eoin - explaining things in full requires that the person has an understands of what needs to be explained. On the evidence we see every day RTE should invest in a bit of training.

]]> By: JohnTheOptimist http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2010/07/20/moody%e2%80%99s-%e2%80%9cstable%e2%80%9d-comment-refers-to-the-rating-not-the-economy/#comment-60741 JohnTheOptimist Tue, 20 Jul 2010 14:14:11 +0000 http://www.irisheconomy.ie/?p=7185#comment-60741 @KarlWhelan So, for what it’s worth, Moody’s are more pessimistic on growth in the Irish economy than the government. I'd say "for what it’s worth" is a very apt phrase. Its worth about as much England 2010 World Cup memorabilia. In May 2009, Moody's forecast that Ireland's GDP (repeat: GDP) would fall by 4.5pc in 2010 (on top of a forecast 9pc in 2009). The latest forecasts (not from Moody's) are for a rise in GDP in 2010 of about 1pc. So, even without any further upward revision to growth forecasts (very unlikely, in my opinion), their 2010 forecast looks like being out by 5.5pc. @KarlWhelan

So, for what it’s worth, Moody’s are more pessimistic on growth in the Irish economy than the government.

I’d say “for what it’s worth” is a very apt phrase.

Its worth about as much England 2010 World Cup memorabilia.

In May 2009, Moody’s forecast that Ireland’s GDP (repeat: GDP) would fall by 4.5pc in 2010 (on top of a forecast 9pc in 2009). The latest forecasts (not from Moody’s) are for a rise in GDP in 2010 of about 1pc. So, even without any further upward revision to growth forecasts (very unlikely, in my opinion), their 2010 forecast looks like being out by 5.5pc.

]]> By: Eoin http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2010/07/20/moody%e2%80%99s-%e2%80%9cstable%e2%80%9d-comment-refers-to-the-rating-not-the-economy/#comment-60740 Eoin Tue, 20 Jul 2010 14:10:18 +0000 http://www.irisheconomy.ie/?p=7185#comment-60740 @ Karl a German ex footballer with a scouse accent giving a credit outlook on the Irish economy? Nothing would surprise me these days... :D @ Karl

a German ex footballer with a scouse accent giving a credit outlook on the Irish economy? Nothing would surprise me these days… :D

]]> By: Eoin http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2010/07/20/moody%e2%80%99s-%e2%80%9cstable%e2%80%9d-comment-refers-to-the-rating-not-the-economy/#comment-60738 Eoin Tue, 20 Jul 2010 14:01:05 +0000 http://www.irisheconomy.ie/?p=7185#comment-60738 @ Karl im only messing. Simply noting that such mistakes are unfortunately common in the Irish media, and making sure you highlight the positive as well as the negative mistakes! If you ever read a Bloomberg story it goes into ridiculous detail at times, but at least you can't claim they don't explain things properly and in full... @ Karl

im only messing. Simply noting that such mistakes are unfortunately common in the Irish media, and making sure you highlight the positive as well as the negative mistakes!

If you ever read a Bloomberg story it goes into ridiculous detail at times, but at least you can’t claim they don’t explain things properly and in full…

]]> By: Karl Whelan http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2010/07/20/moody%e2%80%99s-%e2%80%9cstable%e2%80%9d-comment-refers-to-the-rating-not-the-economy/#comment-60736 Karl Whelan Tue, 20 Jul 2010 13:59:34 +0000 http://www.irisheconomy.ie/?p=7185#comment-60736 @ Eoin Wasn't Dietmar Hornung on the RTE panel for the World Cup? ;-) @ Eoin

Wasn’t Dietmar Hornung on the RTE panel for the World Cup? ;-)

]]> By: Gavin S http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2010/07/20/moody%e2%80%99s-%e2%80%9cstable%e2%80%9d-comment-refers-to-the-rating-not-the-economy/#comment-60734 Gavin S Tue, 20 Jul 2010 13:58:22 +0000 http://www.irisheconomy.ie/?p=7185#comment-60734 Who does? I prefered the days when words like ratings, CDO's, CDS, Derivatives, Haircuts, Long term economic value etc etc were not used on the front page of the newspapers or on news programmes. Actually heard someone discussing it in the pub last night. Who does? I prefered the days when words like ratings, CDO’s, CDS, Derivatives, Haircuts, Long term economic value etc etc were not used on the front page of the newspapers or on news programmes. Actually heard someone discussing it in the pub last night.

]]> By: Karl Whelan http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2010/07/20/moody%e2%80%99s-%e2%80%9cstable%e2%80%9d-comment-refers-to-the-rating-not-the-economy/#comment-60733 Karl Whelan Tue, 20 Jul 2010 13:55:03 +0000 http://www.irisheconomy.ie/?p=7185#comment-60733 Eh, actually, Eoin, as specifically noted above, in each case the RTE reporter discussed how the "outlook" for the economy was "upgraded from negative to stable." I would have absolutely no problem with them referring to comments about the economy stabilising but it's clear that the comments have simply misunderstood language used in relation to the rating. The comment you noted about S&P further illustrates that they don't understand ratings-speak. Eh, actually, Eoin, as specifically noted above, in each case the RTE reporter discussed how the “outlook” for the economy was “upgraded from negative to stable.” I would have absolutely no problem with them referring to comments about the economy stabilising but it’s clear that the comments have simply misunderstood language used in relation to the rating.

The comment you noted about S&P further illustrates that they don’t understand ratings-speak.

]]> By: Eoin http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2010/07/20/moody%e2%80%99s-%e2%80%9cstable%e2%80%9d-comment-refers-to-the-rating-not-the-economy/#comment-60729 Eoin Tue, 20 Jul 2010 13:37:09 +0000 http://www.irisheconomy.ie/?p=7185#comment-60729 @ Karl eh, actually, this is what is being attributed to Moodys Vice President Dietmar Hornung yesterday: "More positively, Mr Hornung opined that the Irish economy was stabilising and that the country had “turned the corner”. Its unknown is Herr Hornung was wearing a green jersey at the time, however... On another note, can we open up another dedicated thread to correct a related error that appeared in the story published on the RTE website dealing with the Moodys decision, when it stated that: "rival S&P....maintains a negative outlook for the country". No they don't, they maintain a negative outlook on the credit rating of the country. This off-teal jersey-wearing attitude is what got us into this mess in the first place... @ Karl

eh, actually, this is what is being attributed to Moodys Vice President Dietmar Hornung yesterday:

“More positively, Mr Hornung opined that the Irish economy was stabilising and that the country had “turned the corner”.

Its unknown is Herr Hornung was wearing a green jersey at the time, however…

On another note, can we open up another dedicated thread to correct a related error that appeared in the story published on the RTE website dealing with the Moodys decision, when it stated that:

“rival S&P….maintains a negative outlook for the country”.

No they don’t, they maintain a negative outlook on the credit rating of the country. This off-teal jersey-wearing attitude is what got us into this mess in the first place…

]]> By: Brian Woods II http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2010/07/20/moody%e2%80%99s-%e2%80%9cstable%e2%80%9d-comment-refers-to-the-rating-not-the-economy/#comment-60723 Brian Woods II Tue, 20 Jul 2010 13:13:32 +0000 http://www.irisheconomy.ie/?p=7185#comment-60723 The key speculation is was this gaffe on RTE's part due to (a) ignorance (b) wishful thinking or more ominously as suggested by others (c) a conspiracy by the State organ to put an optimistic spin, knowing it to be misleading. Not a conspiracy theorist myself so I put it down to a combination of (a) and (b) The key speculation is was this gaffe on RTE’s part due to (a) ignorance (b) wishful thinking or more ominously as suggested by others (c) a conspiracy by the State organ to put an optimistic spin, knowing it to be misleading.

Not a conspiracy theorist myself so I put it down to a combination of (a) and (b)

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