Suffice to say for now that things are not getting any worse.

I’d say ‘not getting any worse’ is a resonable description of the current state of the domestic economy. Apart from car sales which are increasing rapidly, consumer spending is growing only slowly. Retail sales (excluding car sales) rose 1pc in Q1 and rose another 1pc in Q2. Nothing to get excited about. So, your ‘not getting any worse’ is a reasonable summary of the domestic economy. However, exports are a different matter. The May merchandise exports figures published last week, the Q1 service export figures, and this KPMG survey all point to exports roaring ahead. I can’t for the life of me see that the Central Bank forecast last week of just 3.3pc growth in exports volume in 2010 is remotely plausible. Its looking far more like 10pc now. This will scupper their GDP forecast of just 0.8pc GDP growth, even if consumer spending remains subdued. Their 3.3pc forecast for export volume growth in 2010 looks likely to win the ‘Worst Forecast of 2010′ competition, pipping my own forecast that Tyrone would beat Dublin by 17 points into second place.

Suffice to say for now that things are not getting any worse.

I’d say ‘not getting any worse’ is a resonable description of the current state of the domestic economy. Apart from car sales which are increasing rapidly, consumer spending is growing only slowly. Retail sales (excluding car sales) rose 1pc in Q1 and rose another 1pc in Q2. Nothing to get excited about. So, your ‘not getting any worse’ is a reasonable summary of the domestic economy. However, exports are a different matter. The May merchandise exports figures published last week, the Q1 service export figures, and this KPMG survey all point to exports roaring ahead. I can’t for the life of me see that the Central Bank forecast last week of just 3.3pc growth in exports volume in 2010 is remotely plausible. Its looking far more like 10pc now. This will scupper their GDP forecast of just 0.8pc GDP growth, even if consumer spending remains subdued. Their 3.3pc forecast for export volume growth in 2010 looks likely to win the ‘Worst Forecast of 2010′ competition, pipping my own forecast that Tyrone would beat Dublin by 17 points into second place.

perhaps when the helicopters return to Ballybrit we can say definitively that the ecoonomy is booming. Suffice to say for now that things are not getting any worse. Let us wait and see what the Exchequer numbers bring.

The attendances in Galway were up 5% as you say. We have reached a form of stability.

It might be advisable to see the increased attendances at Galway races in a wider context, one of increasing confidence in the economy. Latest KPMG survey just out. Confidence, optimism, and expectations for output in Ireland’s services sector the highest in EU. Has all the hard work of David McWillimas and Morgan Kelly been in vain?

http://www.businessandleadership.com/news/article/24703/leadership/confidence-in-service-sector-in-ireland-is-highest-in-eu-kpmg-survey

I would be surprised if the opening on new LR took much more than a fw hundred off the gate at Croker. North Dublin & nationalist Tyrone and Down do not do Rugby very much. Great to see the moaning minnies from Kerry and Tyrone going out. Mcikey & Jack will probably et a gig on RTE now or perhaps they could be guest moderators on this site.

The attendances in Galway were up 5% as you say but betting was down 1% over the Tote and the Bookies to 13.1 million euros ( that is millions Hugh). We have reached a form of stability.

I don’t have the exact figures but I think we’ll have to give you (JTO) a mulligan on the weekend attendances at Croker!

The attendance at Croke Park on Saturday was 62 thousand. This was less than the 80 thousand I thought would be there. But, what I was totally unaware of at the time, and totally failed to factor in, was that the Aviva Stadium opening also took place on Saturday afternoon, and the match there attracted 35 thousand. If it hadn’t been for the Aviva match, which many wanted to attend as it was the first ever at that stadium, a good chunk of those 35 thousand would have been at Croke Park. In total, 97 thousand attended matches within a mile of the GPO last Saturday afternoon, which is pretty huge for a country Ireland’s size. There should be 80 thousand for the Dublin v Cork semi-final, although I will certainly not be among them. More significant from the economy’s point of view, I see that attendances at Galway races were up by 6pc last week.

Over on the sporting front, about 25,000 went to the last day of the golf and 17,000 to the each of the first two days of the Galway Races.

Just think, if we got €1,000,000 from each and every one of those Galway punters we could just about eliminate the 2010 exchequer borrowing requirement.

@ Zhou

I think it’s more correct to say the Dubs are two games away from being World Champions. Baseball has the World Series, maybe we’re too parochial in labelling it the All-Ireland (don’t we let London and New York play?)

I have been to Powerstown Park many times for racing under rules and between the flags and for the doggies. Hopefully, I will go again unless the Watermelon Party bans another raft of field sports.

I don’t have the exact figures but I think we’ll have to give you a mulligan on the weekend attendances at Croker! Great to see the Dubs are only two games away from Europe

@tull

You should get in touch with your small-farmer roots and head down to Clonmel for the first Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday of February.

Maybe tomorrow. . .

So you finally admit that Tyrone is part of a foreign country??? No doubt that will make you very popular among the (perhaps) 80,000 in Croker.

No, I don’t. It is the same country. As I’m sure you are clever enough to have guessed, I was being sarcastic and taking the p*ss out of Brian Lucey’s comments last week. The only cultural deffierence between the Tyrone and Dublin fans today will be that all the Tyrone fans know the words of Amhran na bh

@zhou_en_lai

As for 80,000 turning up on Sunday, this must be your first outing of the year if you think you will get a crowd that big. I hope this doesn’t taint your reputation for brilliant contrarian predictions!

In 2008, almost 71,000 attended the Tyrone v Dublin quarter-final, the same stage as today’s match. And, it poured torrential rain all day. Plus, the match was seen in advance as a ‘no contest’ which may have kept the crowd down, with the RTE panel of ‘experts’ voting unanimously by 10 to 0 on the morning of the match that Dublin would win easily and that Tyrone were wasting their time turning up. Tyrone won 23-9.

Regarding contrarian forecasts, today’s contrarian forecast is tomorrow’s mainstream forecast. This time last year the Dept of Finance, ESRI and the Central Bank all forecast that GDP would fall by 3pc in 2010. I forecast that it would rise by 2.8pc. That was seen as contrarian at the time, but no longer. Now, all three have moved their forecasts to GDP growth of near 1pc in 2010 (the Central Bank just yesterday), so they’ve almost caught up with me. By, the end of the year they will have.

@Kevin O’Rourhe et al

With regard to domestic soccer, I am not against it, I sometimes go to see Derry City play. I would like to see a decent soccer league in Ireland. But, the truth is soccer league football on the island of Ireland is abysmal. Even tiny Cyprus (population 400k) got a team into the Champions League this season and they did well, running Chelsea close in two games. My opinion is that most domestic soccer followers and administrators on the island of Ireland have an ultra-partitionst mentality, which is the root cause of why league soccer in Ireland is so abysmal. There is a golden rule with regard to sport in Ireland: those sports that are organised on an All-Ireland 32 county basis are extremely successful, both in sporting terms, in terms of attendances, and financially - for example: GAA, rugby, golf, horse racing, boxing, even cricket is doing well; but those sports that are partitioned have an abysmal record in terms of sporting success, attendances and financially - for example: soccer, athletics. The obvious solution is that the gvernments north and south should only put money into sports that are organised on an All-Ireland basis.

Since this is an economics website, we could look at the impact of the various sports on the economy. Through the success of the northern teams in recent years, the economy south of the border is raking in millions. I reckon 50,000 will travel from north of the border to Dublin today to follow Tyrone and Down. Not all will go to the match, some will just be up for the craic afterwards. But, if we assume reasonably a 100-euros average spend on all items (tickets, meals, petrol etc) by each of those 50,000, that is 5 million euros in services exports earned by the economy south of the border today, purely because of the quarter-finals. Were Tyrone and Down to win, that 5 million in services exports would be repeated in a few weeks time at the semi-finals stage. So, the economy south of the border would benefit by Tyrone and Down winning today, which factor will I hope be taken into consideration by the referees. In fact, since 2000 I reckon the econonomy south of the boeder has earned about 100 million euros in services exports from Tyrone and Armagh fans alone coming to Dublin for big matches. In contrast, domestic soccer makes no contribution to the economy south of the border. In fact, its responsible for a massive drain. Because of the failure to organise a decent domestic league on the island of Ireland (for the reasons I outlined above), most soccer fans follow English teams and travel in their thousands to London, Manchester, Liverpool and Birmingham ever week. I’m not criticising them, as I do that myself occasionally. But, if there was a decent domestic league on the island of Ireland, far fewer would travel to England at weekends and there would be a far smaller drain on the economy.

Loads of fun.

Fair enough, different strokes for different folks.

I would’nt cross the road to watch a Munster hurling final & if a LOI game was being played in the front garden, I would close the curtains. Spare me the Heino Cup, now that is really makey up stuff, a club from Limerick called Munster and a club from south Dublin called Leinster along with the rugby playing wing of the UUP.

Zhou, spare me the claptrap. I just do not like Munster Hurling, LOI …is that ok. Road Bowling beats all, but not the Nordie version.

The average attendance of ALL championships matches is actually quite low (10,000-20,000) . For every Dublin Game there are three or four lower profile matches e.g Sligo V Roscommon, that would only draw about 10,000.

I am a hurling Fan first and foremost, but I deplore the ill informed rants levelled at Irish soccer

It is distressing how people are trying to pit one side against each other in this national debate. Creating division between soccer fans, coursing enthusaists and gaelic games fanatics is not helping matters. We are all comrades-in-arms in this sporting.

It is by no means a zero sum game as all increase in support for sports lifts the national spirit.

The inward looking 1950s protectionist mentality being espoused by some GAA supporters would have Lemass turning in his grave. It could have the effect of turning people off all the sports bodies involved therefore leading to an aggregate decline in sporting activities.

It is not clear whether this is an international phenomenon but it is noted that the influx of foreign sporting spectators has been limited to areas around Killarney and Tallaght over the last while. The prize money in Tallaght is not expected to remain in the country after the weekend. This means the Domestic Sporting Product may be distorted and Super Hoops Sporting Product may be a better measure.