Comments on: De Volkskrant on Ireland

By: Paul

Paul — Thu, 26 Aug 2010 20:39:45 +0000

@Peter
Just look at the CDS market - Ireland’s debt is sinking like only bankrupt nations do. Today markets price a 25% risk we default within five years. The high cost of credit means every bank outside Ireland is going to try to reduce their Irish exposures due to the risk. This sort of credit tightening just bleeds an economy until it becomes unbearable due to unemployment, defaults, and social tension. This is going to be painful on its own but, ever more painful, we need large fiscal cuts. I figure we are past the point of no return in terms of making it without help/default. The key question now is whether the ECB will freely let Irish banks borrow the 50bn euros needed to get through the next few months, or, whether the ECB/Germans will balk and make us go to the IMF sooner rather than later.

By: seafoid

seafoid — Thu, 26 Aug 2010 16:14:32 +0000

@Peter

FF cleaned up on Dublin commuter votes during the tiger years. There are a quarter of a million people in negative equity who probably won’t be voting FF again for a while. That constituency is lost.

By: Peter

Peter — Thu, 26 Aug 2010 13:37:53 +0000

@ Stuart

I wouldn’t rule out that this government fancies it’s chances at getting back in. Lenihan has built substantial credibility with the people of Ireland over the last year and the international media are heralding the decision-making and leadership - not that they have the real inside track. His counterparts in opposition look pale.

If the 3% target (for 2014) is on course by 2012, then the government would naturally aim to stay in power to finish the job. By that time concerns will have moved onto more constructive issues like repairing the mess, as opposed to the blame game seen to date. Still, the unwinding of the bank guarantees will prove tricky.

This is a genuine incentive for FF to meet the budget targets this year….so as you say, it’s just a matter of how the savings will be achieved - and how extensive the list is. It’s hard to be optimistic.

By: Kevin O'Brien

Kevin O'Brien — Thu, 26 Aug 2010 13:11:23 +0000

Edward Hugh has posted stuff on his FB page this morning about Ireland. Why not have him contribute a post or two every so often on IE.ie.
Just a suggestion!

“Ireland does seem to have moved farther down the road than some in cleaning up the mess, so if you look at the spreads, it does seem others are being rewarded for leaving even more problems for later.” (E. Hugh)

What has the Irish government got to do with it?

By: Al

Al — Thu, 26 Aug 2010 13:03:56 +0000

@ KOB

If he wont take a cheque from Miliken then will he take one from the Irish government?

By: Kevin O'Brien

Kevin O'Brien — Thu, 26 Aug 2010 12:50:06 +0000

Would it possible to have Edward Hugh contribute posts to IrishEconomy.ie .

(New York times piece on him: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/09/business/global/09blogger.html?_r=1 )

By: Richard Tol

Richard Tol — Thu, 26 Aug 2010 12:03:25 +0000

@Stuart
The list is longer, in fact (water charges, privatisation), but not yet complete.

By: Stuart Blythman

Stuart Blythman — Thu, 26 Aug 2010 11:55:55 +0000

I too have concerns the government will not do what needs to be done at the next budget. We have already been promised
1. No property tax
2. No university fees
3. No tax increases
4. No PS pay cuts.

Doesn’t leave a lot except a bit of tinkering, some vague promises of savings in the PS a la Croke Park, and presumably hoping like mad for growth in 2011 which looking at the US and elsewhere at the moment may be misplaced. And if they’re thinking general election in 2011 why not leave it for the next lot?

By: Hugh Sheehy

Hugh Sheehy — Thu, 26 Aug 2010 09:54:37 +0000

The key phrase is that we need “nieuwe ingrijpende maatregelen”. Of course, the current government is quite likely to want to leave these “nieuwe ingrijpende maatregelen” to a new incoming govt in 2012, and not to have to do take them now.

The article also mentions that the Greens want to delay reaching a 3% deficit until 2020. Why do I suspect that they don’t understand the gaping financial pit this would leave the country in, in 2020 and for a long time afterwards, or that they don’t care.

I pity the poor taxpayers in 2020 and beyond that would have to pay that debt back. The term “financial oppression”would seem just about right and appropriate for that.

By: Richard Tol

Richard Tol — Thu, 26 Aug 2010 09:07:04 +0000

@Dreaded Estate
Recall that the Dutch have a Disease named after them.

By: Dreaded_Estate

Dreaded_Estate — Thu, 26 Aug 2010 09:04:01 +0000

@Richard Tol
“bezuinigingsmoe = tired of budget cuts”

There is a word for that!

By: Richard Tol

Richard Tol — Thu, 26 Aug 2010 07:01:38 +0000

bezuinigingsmoe = tired of budget cuts

By: seafoid

seafoid — Thu, 26 Aug 2010 06:37:12 +0000

The Irish are bezuinigingsmoe.What does that mean? I see that De Volksrant quotes EUR 90bn. That’s the number people are going to remember.

By: Mark Dowling

Mark Dowling — Wed, 25 Aug 2010 22:11:36 +0000

“Ireland was a role model for austerity at the start of the year, but is now a reason for concern.” Ireland didn’t have enough riots, it seems.

By: a punter

a punter — Wed, 25 Aug 2010 21:44:11 +0000

Looks like he has gone off to commit suicide. One wrist done - more to do.

By: Keith Cunneen

Keith Cunneen — Wed, 25 Aug 2010 21:36:19 +0000

Is that a large whiskey in that chaps hand ? - might as well enjoy myself while I still can attitude !

or is it ice tea - coolly appraising the nature of the shit hole he has just bought with no water, electricity or tele reception and most importantly he has just noticed via superior map reading skills that the pub is a good 2 hours walk from his humble abode.

By: colm mccarthy

colm mccarthy — Wed, 25 Aug 2010 21:28:22 +0000

Relax Richard, Ajax got through.