Irish Times: “Overseas Deposits Increase Significantly”. Really?
This post was written by Karl Whelan
The lead story in today’s Irish Times carries the headline “Overseas deposits at Irish banks increase significantly”. Well, here’s a chart showing non-resident deposits for the three definitions of the Irish banking sector published by the Central Bank: All Banks, Domestic Group (which excludes IFSC banks) and Covered Banks.
How many of you can see the series increasing significantly at the last data point, in the usual sense of the word, meaning a large increase? It appears the headline reflects the following wording provided by Dan O’Brien (who would not have written the headline): “The small but significant increase in deposits …” In other words, Dan is saying that overseas deposits didn’t rise significantly but the small uptick could potentially be a good sign for the future.
Beyond the headline (sub-editor screwups seem to be very common at newspapers) what’s odd about the story is that even though the latest data on overseas and resident deposits don’t show much more than a continuation of recent trends, the rest of the piece treats the release as though something interesting has happened, including the obligatory crowing from Minister Noonan:
The Central Bank statistics on deposits point to a stabilisation of the Irish financial system. Responding to the developments, Minister for Finance Michael Noonan said the “deposit figures illustrate growing national and international confidence in the Irish banking system. It is particularly impressive that the deposit position of the Irish banks has improved at a time of such global uncertainty.”
He described the cash inflows as an “an endorsement of the Government’s restructuring of the banking system. This restructuring has reduced the cost of the banks to the State and has also seen the banks beginning to access international money markets without the benefit of the State guarantee.”
For those interested in actually seeing what’s going on with deposits (yes I know the chart above is rubbish — I don’t know how other people get decent quality graphs up on this site!) here’s a Powerpoint presentation (also here in grimer PDF) with charts for total deposits, non-resident deposits, resident deposits, and private sector resident deposits. In addition to the Total/Domestic/Covered breakdown, I’ve provided charts for an IFSC/Domestic Non-Covered/Covered breakdown.
I surmise from these charts that the non-resident withdrawals have largely tailed off and that the trend for resident deposits in the covered banks remains a downward one.
October 1st, 2011 at 4:50 pm
It’s a strange story to lead with alright. The quotes from Noonan are all the more incongruous given that non-resident deposits in the covered banks actually fell in the month, albeit from €70.9 billion to €70.5 billion.
October 1st, 2011 at 5:01 pm
That chart comes as a relief to me. When I saw the headline, I got the nasty feeling that we might be heading back to a situation where getting rid of the banks is unthinkable. Now that I see how things are shaping up, I can still hope that some kind foreign bank will do a National Irish on them. No harm they can inflict on Danish, Australian or Canadian taxpayers will intimidate me.
October 1st, 2011 at 5:33 pm
There should be a reinforcing feedback loop between gilt yields and the availability of bank funding - eg deposits. It is curious in a way that this hasn’t really happened, not yet anyway - even more so when Ireland is out of the news and the market is only interested in playing “guess which mainland European banks are really bust”.
The spinning in the press is, I think, the MoF “going for it”.
With the assistance of celebrity motor-mouth Wilbur talking his book at every opportunity (which doesn’t involve highlighting the decision to buy bank stock just before everyone else decided to sell them), the government sense they could be onto a roll it they could just get things moving.
October 1st, 2011 at 5:36 pm
The question is did this story start with Dan O’Brien noticing the figures…or some spin ghoul of the government’s. Given the government has been trumpeting our ‘economic improvement’ all week, it is very likely the latter.
Given that there is no significant domestic debate on the EZ crisis, it is very dissapointing that the Irish Times is choosing to focus on above inconsequential nonsense.
October 1st, 2011 at 5:37 pm
Independent headline…”Deposit outflows slow to €342m in August for domestic banks”
Examiner ……”Deposits from households, businesses, financial institutions and pension funds also fell in August at an annual rate of 10.4%, the same as in July.
Household deposits were down 5.4% over the 12 months. This highlights that Irish consumers, companies and pension funds have been withdrawing cash from Irish-based banks over the last year.
Overall, deposits dropped by more than €1 billion in August alone, with household deposits down more than €500 million.
And now Noonan proposes to remove the guarantee for deposits in December as reported by the IT yesterday. Folly?
October 1st, 2011 at 5:47 pm
@CeterP
Meh…removing guarantee might mean the gap would be plugged by more cheap ELA ;-)… indeed it was amusing to notice the witterings about the interest rate on sovereign debt….given that the funding cost of banks, is actually fiscallyt more significant.
October 1st, 2011 at 5:54 pm
OK credit creation is still negative so you would expect resident deposits to follow that line.
But is state savings somehow increasing - subtracting from where once they went to bank deposits ?
The NTMA states that on 31 dec 2010 state savings schemes was a very considerable 12,680 million - is there any more up to date data ? or is that metric calculated on a yearly on quarterly basis.
The central bank needs to be commended for producing great credit statistics but I can’t find state saving statistics on their site.
Also just because commercial deposits are declining - that does not mean the wealth is fleeing abroad.
There are private deposit facilities outside the banking sector - but more likely the lack of credit creation simply means people collectively must run down their savings.
October 1st, 2011 at 6:11 pm
@Grumpy
As Paul Hunt reminds us regularly, we are continuously fed bs. The rubbish from MN that the banks will fund themselves without guarantees demonstrates this. BOI selling secured bonds with the help of Wilbur doesn’t amount to much. They had to offer extraordinary rates. Warren said during the week that he would not put any money into European banks…a pity, as he could probably recapitalize a few of them
October 1st, 2011 at 6:45 pm
If they could just break the money supply from bank “assets” this problem would end pretty quickly.
There is a huge spare capacity in the economy for rational physical utility investment.
This entire episode turns economics into a sick insiders joke.
October 1st, 2011 at 7:33 pm
@ Karl Whelan
“including the obligatory crowing from Minister Noonan:”
By all means call the Minister a twat: he’s just scoring government points after all.
But my impression is that you are labouring to get the best possible outcome from the situation for the people of Ireland.
IMO you are the most spot on and lucid economist within the ‘let’s make this work’ frameowrk.
If IMO (again) Philip Lane, who is clearly on fire, is a touch bland in his public statements which means there is a danger that he can be ignored, you are in danger of blowing your emotions at the expense of having traction.
Ask yourself: what outcome do I wish to see, and how will that happen.
October 1st, 2011 at 9:03 pm
@Gavin
Part of Ireland’s problem is that there is a reluctance among opinion formers and to some extent the public generally, to call a spade a spade. Have you ever been to Yorkshire?
The subconscious competition to be the most clubbable chap is not helpful to the state. It needs straight talking, more, not less.
October 1st, 2011 at 9:07 pm
The data is further complicated by the availability of State savings schemes.
In 2010 these schemes took in a net approx €3.4 billion or an average of almost 300 million per month.
Given the rates on offer, and the tax free 3% (no DIRT), it is likely than deposits are finding their way into these schemes at an increasing rate.
The NTMA annual report (Page 10) gives details of amounts for 2010.
http://www.ntma.ie/Publications/2011/NTMA_Annual_Report_2010_English.pdf
October 1st, 2011 at 9:52 pm
@ Gav
“you are in danger of blowing your emotions at the expense of having traction”
Nothing emotional about it. I just have a preference for reporting of economic statistics to be tell people what’s actually happening rather than to mislead them.
As for the Minister’s comments, I don’t have any great problem with them. One can only assume that he knows what the actual facts are. Deposits are not flowing out as they were late last year and early this year and he’s entitled to put a positive spin on that. But Irish Times readers will have been misled into thinking that he was commenting on some interesting new development and that’s just not the case.
October 1st, 2011 at 9:53 pm
This is a problem with the media in general. Google announced 30 jobs in a warehouse in Dublin and it becomes national headlines - why?
Because we are desperate for some good news.
Dan O Brien - take a walk along Abbey Street or Talbot street. Then you will see what economic decline is all about.
I’ve given up reading alot of the economic stuff in the Irish Times because it’s being used to peddle his blinkered ideology. It is a poor propaganda pamphlet at the moment.
BTW - nice to see the Occupy Wallstreet movement in the US - might not get anywhere but….wouldn’t it be nice if we even had something left to occupy!
October 1st, 2011 at 10:33 pm
Those are some of the worst explained graphs I have ever seen. A summary at the end of each might have saved a few of them. How in Gods name can anyone pull usable date from them.
October 1st, 2011 at 11:03 pm
The Irish Times must be on valium. But hey, if they can print favourable financial propaganda which manages to convince the hyperactive alpha gerbils in the markets to lend to Ireland again, should we really be complaining? Should the country really be above exaggerating the truth in order to save itself?
It’s not like Irish newspapers have ever been diligent seekers of the truth anyway.
October 1st, 2011 at 11:46 pm
@ Dork
State Savings has a net inflow of just over 1 billion for the first half of the year.
http://www.ntma.ie/Publications/2011/RtFundingQ2Version.pdf
October 2nd, 2011 at 3:35 am
I wonder what the 10 year rate would be if the IMF did not have super senior status?
October 2nd, 2011 at 8:04 am
“the rest of the piece treats the release as though something interesting has happened, including the obligatory crowing from Minister Noonan”
Er, Karl…. this is what’s known in the PR trade as ‘clutching at any straws available, even if they are drinking straws.’ I’m glad there are still some people around who can spot it and bring it to wider attention (e.g. your good self).
For a moment, before I read the article itself, I thought to myself, “Well, I suppose those withdrawing their money like crazy from French banks have got to put it somewhere.” But is anyone talking about the run on French banks?
The truth is out there.
October 2nd, 2011 at 8:58 am
Does ‘obligatory’ not imply that he was obliged to do it - the job of the FinMin is to spin the broad picture as positive.
@Gavin Kostick
Wishing stuff to be so is what got us into this mess. Better to be a hurler than a poodle.
October 2nd, 2011 at 10:26 am
Media organ publishes political apparatchik’s diktats for propaganda purposes.
We’re all communist monkeys now!
October 2nd, 2011 at 11:01 am
Yes. An alternative interpretation of those graphics ….
Overseas deposits increased significantly …. then we blew it all on a Triple_A Party ….
Andy Lee in Atlantic City last night …… atta boy Andy - don’t get mad - get even.
All the amateurs into the last 32 in the worlds ….. course the Azerbaijaniis do have a superior credit rating to us at the mo …
And the business done in fine style in Dunedin … if any of those loose forwards catch up with the idiots who downgraded NewZealand at this time we need never again worry about a bout of the Moody Blues or the Status Anxiety Fitches ….
… an Inda an da good boys an girls were all at home doin their homework …. get a life!
October 2nd, 2011 at 11:56 am
I suspect that this is the elevator music in the Irish times building now
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9lO7Oo7s0D0&feature=youtube_gdata_player
October 2nd, 2011 at 11:59 am
@Karl Whelan
If you really wish to do ‘emotional’ - read on ….
‘Whether the issue is currencies, taxation, or European integration, harmonization of fiscal policies, securities regulation, or the international financial system, intimate knowledge of the “political economy” of decision-making on both sides of the Atlantic will be the key to understanding what lies in store for both Europe and America, and how their decisions will affect the world.
[T]wo of the world’s most distinguished political economists, Michael Boskin, a former Chairman of the US Council of Economic Advisors and currently Professor of Economics at Stanford University, and Hans-Werner Sinn of Germany’s Ifo Institute and Munich University, have teamed up to provide Project Syndicate with exclusive monthly commentaries on Europe, America, and the world. Deeply informed and bracingly prescient, Boskin and Sinn are essential reading for anyone who wants to comprehend the complex relationship between political decisions and economic performance.’
http://www.project-syndicate.org/series/transatlantic_perspectives/long_description
How do they get away with it?
October 2nd, 2011 at 12:22 pm
Namawinelake have the headline right….”Flight of private sector deposits from Irish Banks continues in August 2011.”
Easy to read tables…
http://namawinelake.wordpress.com/2011/10/01/flight-of-private-sector-deposits-from-irish-banks-continues-in-august-2011/#entry
October 2nd, 2011 at 6:18 pm
As said above, the provenance of the story is likely government spin, and I know Mr Kostick suggests being nice is more productive, but I think it needs to be pointed out just how weak this government is.
John McHale is a sound _fiscal_ council leader, but there is no such more general body for economics, nor are there anywhere near enough finance professionals (let alone accountants) in Dep Fin.
We’ve an ‘economic council’ led by Kenny and Gilmore with Noonan and Howlin as the juniors. Kenny has very little grasp of policy, Gilmore has a shockingly poor grasp of what’s what. Leaving Noonan aside, Brendan Howlin is proving a surpisingly good performer, though he probably faces an even steeper learning curve than the late Brian Lenihan.
The chief economic policy adviser, and secretary to the council is Andrew McDowell of FG, who was previously chief economist for Forfás. Long term readers of this blog will recall Karl Whelan ripping Andrew to shreds over his grasp of detail on the banking crisis. Also Andrew was the author of that godawful 4.5 page FG banking plan. He is a nice and capable man, but way outside his space.
Kenny has to rely on spindoctors for advice (e.g. Mark Kennelly (sp)) and is very weak…leaving Noonan as the only bulwark against financial and economic ignorance.
Now sure Lenihan did some astute appointments, bringing in Scott Rankin (ex davy) and Jim O’Leary…but Noonan hasn’t refreshed much, and his bringing John Moran (ex Zurich, ex CB) over from Dame St hardly gave us a new voice.
Nama seems to have no macroeconomic plan…despite being the largest ever public policy experiment in Ireland, and holding a market making portfolio of property. It is acting as a mere debt collection agency, and none of its actions will resolve the Irish property market and ensure price confidence+ liquidity.
The government trumpets the interest rate decreases…but they were nothing to do with us, rather were done in the interests of Ez Fin Stab.
And we’ve had zero domestic debate on the Ez crisis, despite it having massive political, cultural and economic implications for us.
At a time of great crisis, where epochal discrimen face us…is a time to bring in serious expertise, discuss the issues, and formulate policy options…rather than ‘keep the head down and spin the green jersey’
October 2nd, 2011 at 6:35 pm
@ Desmond Brennan, etc.
Nul points for me there.
I rather nicely put it to Gay Mitchell (clang) last week that he was mistaken on an aspect of an economic argument.
The fact that I spoke in reasonable manner meant that he was actually listening - but I don’t suppose it did a fat lot of good.
October 2nd, 2011 at 7:18 pm
Des,
Lots of namedropping there, but I contend that you know Jack S about what is going on or who is making policy in the govt. I venture to say that nobody (including me) who posts here knows who the main actors are.
October 2nd, 2011 at 7:40 pm
@Tull
I named what we have, and highlighted that I believe poor decisions are being made, if anyone can name
1) One ‘city of London’ grade finance professional in dept fin
2) Any senior accountants with private sector experience from past 10 years in mgmt accounting/business analysis
3) Any property economist in Nama
4) Any members of an economic advisory council to the govt
…..I’d be very surprised.
However, should I wish to, I can name hordes of private sector spin doctors working for the Govt.
The crisis shows no sign of abating, the Central Bank(including FR) have made dozens of worthy hires. Dep Finance is stuck back in the stone ages…and Nama has been castigated by its very architect, Peter Bacon.
October 2nd, 2011 at 7:45 pm
and to clarify on question 2 above…I’m well aware that Minister Howlin is getting some expertise like this via his policy of secondments…but that is early days, and such people only have soft power at best.
That said though, two thumbs up to him for trying (and anyone who reads my stuff here is likely aware that I am certainly no supporter of Labour’s policy platform)
October 2nd, 2011 at 8:11 pm
Everything must be grand in Ireland
http://www.rte.ie/player/#!v=1115051
12 minutes of sports news
October 2nd, 2011 at 8:20 pm
Re 1- There is at least one that I know of- ex UBS but there are others advising on a pro Bono, NFNF and paid basis.
I deduce that you think we should walk up to the Europeans & try the sheriff of rock ridge approach. However, that was a Mel Brooks comedy.
The current govt are gradually unlocking some of the worst of the troika deal by luck , skill & patient negotiation.
October 2nd, 2011 at 10:31 pm
@ Tull
“The current govt are gradually unlocking some of the worst of the troika deal by luck , skill & patient negotiation.”
Perhaps you could post your love letters on some other site …
Just pulling your leg Tull, but perhaps you might as well come out and admit that your fictional TD self is a Blueshirt.
October 2nd, 2011 at 10:38 pm
Karl,
Do you accept that the govt got a break on the interest rate. Moreover, do you also accept that it might have been the product of luck and skill.
Apologies for infringing the code of the site. I did not realise you had to be anti the govt. You won’t get on many quangos with that attitude. Only jokin
October 2nd, 2011 at 10:55 pm
@ Tull
Completely agree on the combo of luck and skill - luck that the crisis has gotten a he’ll of a lot worse, necessitating a bigger and better response from the EU, and skill in the softly softly approach taken when trying to extract a better deal for Ireland rather than the somewhat bludgeoning-style wanted by some of the more feverish commentators out there.
October 2nd, 2011 at 10:57 pm
@ Tull
Ok — humour doesn’t always come across well on de blog comments. In no way is opposition to the government a requirement, as I’m sure you realise.
Still, you’re probably right about me not landing on too many quangos. Not sure I’m the quango type.
As for “the product of luck and skill” — I’m already on the record as backing the former over the latter. FG were waving the white flag not long before the rate cut was achived.
http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2011/06/08/bailout-interest-rate-white-flag-department/
But feel free to explain to me the skill that was employed.
October 2nd, 2011 at 10:59 pm
What’s the problem?
Deposits?
Who needs deposits?
Dexia Banque Belgique
Dexia Crédit Local
Dexia Municipal Agency
But what the hell.
Why don’t we all just “deposit” our entire national wealth with Dexia?
They are, of course, allowed residence here by the Central Bank Of Ireland.
What could possibly go wrong?
http://www.centralbank.ie/polstats/stats/cmab/Documents/Credit%20Institutions%20resident%20in%20the%20Republic%20of%20Ireland.pdf
October 2nd, 2011 at 10:59 pm
Eoin,
Thanks for the support. However agreeing that a FG govt minister has a three figure IQ is likely to make people splurged into their cocoa round here.
October 2nd, 2011 at 11:04 pm
KArl,
Read Eoin’s post. I think it quite balanced. Maybe you favour the Blazing Saddles approach- don’t shoot or Paddy gets it”. That was Mel Brookes at his comedic best tho.
October 2nd, 2011 at 11:13 pm
@ Tullmcadoo,
This is what Eoin siad.
“Completely agree on the combo of luck and skill - luck that the crisis has gotten a he’ll of a lot worse, necessitating a bigger and better response from the EU, and skill in the softly softly approach taken when trying to extract a better deal for Ireland rather than the somewhat bludgeoning-style wanted by some of the more feverish commentators out there.”
I think that’s just plain old shit.
Why do you like it?
October 2nd, 2011 at 11:17 pm
@ Tull & Eoin
Unemployment is at 14.7% (excluding the emigrants). Dublin city centre is now a dreadful dirty dump. There’s a lot of hopelesness and stuff out there.
I don’t blame the govt entirely and agree that they’re doing a good job when it comes to dealing with the Troika but I think that we have to look at how we measure the economy and our own quality of life. I’m not saying that it all has to be managed by changing economic tack but the government’s job is to govern - not just act as administrators for the occupying force of the Troika
October 2nd, 2011 at 11:19 pm
Your Lordship,
You are on the other side of the argument. That is your right. No doubt Prof Whelan would agree with you although in a more erudite manner.
October 2nd, 2011 at 11:38 pm
@ Tullmcadoo
Oh dear, does this mean things are getting more eruditer?
What was the argument?
More nonsense about deposits?
Where do you think they come from?
October 2nd, 2011 at 11:44 pm
@ Eureka
“I don’t blame the govt entirely and agree that they’re doing a good job when it comes to dealing with the Troika”
No offence but you cannot be serious.
Troika?
Is that like IKEA for messed up monetary unions?
Just go in and buy a new one?
The only way to deal with the “Troika” is to say that it doesn’t exist.
Either the IMF exists as the IMF or it does not.
Let’s deal with the IMF.
Either the EU exists or it does not.
Let’s deal with the EU.
The Troika is a disgusting creation of failed Central Banks.
They would be the ECB and the FED.
October 2nd, 2011 at 11:49 pm
@Tullmcadoo
I named names on the outside staff in our civil service/government advisers. Perhaps you might do likewise ?
Fact is bar the Central Bank, we still have the same low grade public service in Ireland. Risk averse, overly legalistic, and no exposure to vast swathes of life.
Then what we get are spindoctors and their lackeys, cheering on a jingoistic ‘green jersey’ agenda.
1)Nama is a total mess re the Irish property market
2) Youth unemployment (which causes massive human capital loss) is shocking, and the ‘intern’ scheme a poor response
3) No quality management information (financial or otherwise) is available in the PS. The effort to make the meagre troika MOU has been herculean, ridiculously so. The HSE is years from linking expenditure to clinical outcome…Capital expenditure financial control is awful etc
4) Our positions on the Ez crisis have been assinine…doubtless plotted byt the ‘comical Ali’ spin doctors of the present govt
I laid out above the poor quality of key economic, financial and accountancy staff in the top echelons in the govt. You, nor others, have been unable to defend this.
This country remains in crisis, with decisions in the importance of billions of Euro to be made.
Yet the government is spinning shyte to us via the faithful Irish Times ?
October 2nd, 2011 at 11:55 pm
@ Mr Wellington
We live in a republic and as such the “Lord” bit means absolutely nothing to me hence I will refuse to acknowledge it in your pseudonym (assuming that it is in fact a pseudonym!!)
So Mr Wellington the Troika does exist. It is an interim arrangement to act as a bridge between economic stability and the protracted global economic chaos that lies ahead.
The govt was already on that bridge thanks to the actions of the previous govt and that desperate bank guarantee. You can’t blame the govt for being on that bridge and walking gingerly upon it. That the bridge will eventually collapse is in no doubt but that’s not the point.
I wish that they would just have a look at real parameters of economic decline such as unemployment and emigration rather than the appeasement of this shambolic arrangement called the Troika. But they’re still not a bad government. We’ve had a lot worse
October 3rd, 2011 at 12:18 am
I wonder what was the history of Irish deposits in the summer months before we all started going on foreign holidays ? - say perhaps before 1994 -95.
If domestic credit production is negative only foreign tourists & export revenue can add to our deposits.
Me thinks we are suffering from the Greek disease - continentals & Americans cannot afford to spend as much money abroad now.
In the dark days of 1986 with its moving statues and the rest we could always reley on some dumb American tourist getting fleeced in Killarney - now not so much.
October 3rd, 2011 at 12:35 am
@ Eureka
“We live in a republic”
Last time I looked it was a Kleptocracy. And that was the Late Late Show Presidential debate.
“It is an interim arrangement to act as a bridge between economic stability and the protracted global economic chaos that lies ahead.”
Are you entirely sure that it is not just the framework that allows the greatest transfer of wealth to the powerful in recent economic history?
“The govt was already on that bridge thanks to the actions of the previous govt and that desperate bank guarantee.”
What makes you think there is any difference between the “govt” you mention and the previous “govt” you mention?
Are they not one and the same? Are they not doing the same thing? Have they not been ordered to do the same thing by the ECB and the EU?
If you can see the difference you have better eyesight than I.
“I wish that they would just have a look at real parameters of economic decline such as unemployment and emigration rather than the appeasement of this shambolic arrangement called the Troika. But they’re still not a bad government. We’ve had a lot worse”
Indeed.
Though perhaps economists should stop talking about “deposits” and “job loss” or “job creation” and accept the truth.
This is Globalisation. It was and is planned.
You can have your Call Centre jobs today but they’ll be gone tomorrow.
You might want to get used to calling you betters “Lord”.
They are about to come visit.
National Sovereign Economies are a plaything of your past.
Your “govt” has been bought and sold so many times you don’t even know why it exists.
I thought it marvellous that the Labour Party put the icing on the Fianna Fail cake by declaring without debate that all of the gas and oil of this Nation is the property of foreign corporations.
You really have to hand it to the potbellied socialists.
They know which side their prawn sandwich is buttered on.
October 3rd, 2011 at 12:53 am
@Lord Wellington
Our humble and supine regards to Lord Salisbury. You might mention to him, over the port, that his sheep are thriving famously.
October 3rd, 2011 at 1:06 am
@ David O’Donnell
Fond memories.
Where would we be now without his Trojan work at the Congress of Berlin?
October 3rd, 2011 at 1:31 am
… looking at a map of Africa, without all those silly straight lines that have caused such angst, and trying to figure out where to seek out The Lost Tribe of the Celts - Zimbabwe comes to mind; so does Bosnia.
October 3rd, 2011 at 1:38 am
“Deposits?
We aint got no deposits.
We don’t need no deposits.
I don’t have to show you any stinkin deposits.”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nsdZKCh6RsU&feature=related
October 3rd, 2011 at 1:42 am
@ David O’Donnell
Libya. Iraq. Iran.
I’m lovin it.
Still. Let’s pretend that Central Banks managing “demand” is meaningful. At least until reality kicks in.
October 3rd, 2011 at 12:30 pm
The Irish Times is little more than an Irish version of Pravda at this stage. In this, it fares no better than any other national print publication, with the possible exception of the Sunday Business Post.
October 3rd, 2011 at 12:54 pm
Off topic.
Efsf and Pimp-My-Efsf fans should note German cds starting to widen today.
October 3rd, 2011 at 2:40 pm
@omf
thanks for the ” possible” exception
October 3rd, 2011 at 4:29 pm
@Obsessive
At least Pravda was free.
October 3rd, 2011 at 5:44 pm
@grumpy
“Pimp-my-EFSF”
I love it. Wish I had thought of that one.
October 3rd, 2011 at 10:32 pm
RTE Nine O’clock News tonight, deposits going up! Yes Sir, only good news these days. Is there an election on ?
@OMF agree about The SBP.
October 4th, 2011 at 6:52 am
Greece payment postponed? Is this true?
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2011/1004/breaking2.html
October 4th, 2011 at 10:41 am
Dexia’s midnight runners. Come on Eileen
Belgian cabinet to discuss break up of bank
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/1eabef1c-ee5e-11e0-a2ed-00144feab49a.html
Presumably they will keep belgium intact for the moment
October 4th, 2011 at 10:52 am
Hedge funds eye outright bet against France
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/f92841b2-eddd-11e0-a491-00144feab49a.html#axzz1Zi6XgIZV
Tax the b*st*rds.
Martin Wolf
“Presumably, an effort would be made to build a firewall between the exiting country and other vulnerable countries. But it would be tested to destruction.”
October 4th, 2011 at 11:14 am
More core and German widening today. If this continues you can forget about much in the way of flash rims and two-tone go-faster stripes for the Efsf.
October 4th, 2011 at 11:23 am
This bit is a classic:
RTRS-DEXIA SA HAS LIQUIDITY PROBLEM, NOT SOLVENCY PROBLEM – FRENCH GOVT SOURCE
RTRS-DEXIA CAPITAL INJECTION NOT CURRENTLY UNDER CONSIDERATION – FRENCH GOVT SOURCE
RTRS-DEXIA ASSET SALE PROGRAMME PLANNED, NOT BREAK-UP – FRENCH GOVT SOURCE
So Dexia has effectively gone sovereign as widely anticipated.
PRGuy has Socgen scheduled for this week!
October 4th, 2011 at 12:24 pm
@Seafoid
Good article in the Sunday Times …from the book by Michael Lewis due out this week (I think) about a trader (hedgie) based in Dallas who made a fortune on the sub prime debacle…the interesting thing is he is currently betting against France and Japan.
Whatever about France, Japan is interesting. They are worse than Greece with 200% debt/GDP.
October 4th, 2011 at 2:05 pm
@grumpy
“PRGuy has Socgen scheduled for this week!”
http://www.moneymorning.com.au/images/mm20111004a_lge.jpg
Would you put your money into Soc Gen (or BNP Paribas for that matter) looking at that above? I’m pretty sure I know which way the hedgies are betting on some French banks at the moment.
But sometimes, the best way of dressing up the word ‘failure’ is by replacing it with the word ‘merger’
I may be a bit ahead of the curve though. I thought there would be more/deeper stress Monday/Tuesday this week but the last time I looked, FTSE was only down to about 4,900 which is still relatively calm waters. Too busy with work this morning… Has Dexia been nationalised yet or are they still trotting out the line about it being a liquidity problem (now, where have I heard that before)?
@Ceterisparibus
Yes, I saw that interesting article in the Sunday Times - read it last night.
I will be meeting the fragrant Minister Joan Burton at a book launch later on today. Anyone got any questions they would like me to put to her? How’s that jobbridgey, interneyship thingy going? Any raise on your prediction of half a million emigrating? Will you have a ministerial role this time next year? etc.
Anyone else going to it? I will stand you a pint.
October 4th, 2011 at 2:35 pm
@PR Guy
1. The Dexia subbies are now interesting.
2. “Hi Joan. Has there been any significant budgetary deterioration since March 2010?” [Ref 1.28; CP Agreement]
October 4th, 2011 at 6:36 pm
@Grumpy,PR Guy.
Shure all is well. A little problem with a few small banks in Europe according to Mickey Noonan the banking guru on RTE news…and on IT site…
“Minister for Finance Michael Noonan said: “I think it’s apparent that some European banks will have to be recapitalised but the initiative has to come from their own governments and their own finance ministers,”
“I think there are some small banks in Europe certainly that need to be recapitalised. That was clear from the latest round of stress tests, but that’s a matter for the individual governments and for the monetary authorities,” he told reporters as he left the two-day meeting in Luxembourg.”
DEXIA and SOC GEN and Maybe BNP….Mickey mouse banks.
And we only borrowed 20.66 billion so far this year. That’s after decimating your pension by half a billion or thereabouts. And we are now only borrowing a billion a month. Talk about progress..growth of 1% and now your barrister won’t have to wear a wig so you should get more competitive refresher rates if you end up in the four goldmines.
November 22nd, 2011 at 9:20 pm
[...] above) of over €150 billion from the ECB and the Irish Central Bank as bank deposits have fallen steadily. If Ireland were to try and return to the private financial markets, it could probably [...]