LONDON—The European Financial Stability Facility, the euro zone’s temporary rescue fund, plans to hold off on selling the €3 billion bond to fund the bailout of Ireland due to volatile market conditions, a person familiar with the situation said Wednesday.

While the proceeds from the deal will go to fund the bailout package for Ireland, the actual sale of the bond has very little to do with the status of the sovereign. The previous three bonds the EFSF sold this year have gone toward both the Irish and Portuguese aid packages.

http://professional.wsj.com/article/EUROPE_EP_SUB:SB10001424052970203716204577013403160651284.html

EFSF not big enough, need a plan for recaps, resolution, ring fencing not yet sick sovs

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c4886f7a-03d3-11e1-bbc5-00144feabdc0.html#ixzz1cSiOPx7W

Nice to see a bit of pushback on the neovictorianism . “The Greeks are liars and they deserve it” is very workhouse style .

No fly-zones around here.

@seafoid

Rest of EZ citizenry also shafted in favour of French banks …. but great to see Democracy breaking out …

“On the referendum …it appears 60% of greeks are opposed to the MOU”

Maybe the Troika could eventually come up with a deal that didn’t shaft the Greeks in favour of the French banks. The July deal was a disgrace. The people of Greece are not stupid .

Easier said than done.

Oil & Gas are a cause of war.

Break the contract get a visit.

then we steal it back immediately. Zero debt is a great place to be.

“Recent history would suggest that the outcome would be a Coalition of The Willing Vichy_ites and Quisling_ites and that they would continue to dump sh1te on, and expropriate the last schillings from, the supine citizen_serfs”

But they Vichy and Quislings can’t do it without contract.

Guess which Pot Bellied Socialist just gave away more or our Oil and Gas for 0 Cent?

It’s bad enough that we pay the debts of German and French Banks.

do we also have to give the entire Nation away for nothing?

Cicero would approve.

Recent history would suggest that the outcome would be a Coalition of The Willing Vichy_ites and Quisling_ites and that they would continue to dump sh1te on, and expropriate the last schillings from, the supine citizen_serfs.

Sometimes one has to fight ….

@All the “Cold Turkey” Spinners

Not so. You’re as bad as The Joe_McCarthy_ite_Aw-Gees - and I suspect somewhat latently strategic in your hidden interests: Blind Biddy remains in contact with the reasonably well heeled Wild Geese, and Patricia the Irish_Soveriegn_in_exile retains some global influence in influential quarters. The International Brigade hasn’t gone away u know!

@The Greeks

In Solidarity. Democracy OK.

“This is an artificial crisis to preserve commercial banks & their make believe assets.”

Or their Mark To Myth Balance Sheets.

The problem is derivatives, the shadow credit leveraging system, a rich vein of commission and bonuses. A lie that if you spread risk wide enough it disappears.

They created an entirely new money system and it went out of control in less than 20 years.

Too late.

Time for us to take what we can get from the broken camel and carry it home ourselves.

The Euro is dead.

We should be looking to survival options as a Nation.

Where is our Strategic Oil Reserve?

As a Nation where are our reserves of food?

In the words of George W Bush …..

“This sucker’s goin down”.

.

EFSF May Sell Short-Term Bills Amid Widening Debt-Crisis Role {NSN LTTC1P6S9732}

.

Regling Says EFSF to Take Junior Tranche of Debt Sold by SPV {NSN LTT4T36S9728}

.

Moody’s affirms EFSF (P)Aaa Rating, with a stable outlook Moreover, Moody’s has today also assigned a first-time provisional short-term rating of (P)P-1 to the EFSF’s debt issuance programme. Today’s rating action follows the completion of a ratification process for the amended EFSF structure .. The amendments do not apply retrospectively to outstanding issuances. ..
TRANSITION/DOWNGRADE RISK The potential risks that could negatively affect the creditworthiness of the programme include a potential deterioration in the creditworthiness of the participating euro area member states (as reflected in Moody’s ratings). Changes in the ratings of these countries could also result in downward pressure on ratings assigned to EFSF issuances. The creditworthiness of the programme would be particularly sensitive to changes in the ratings of Aaa countries with large EFSF contribution keys, i.e. Germany, France and the Netherlands. Moreover, a weakening of the euro area member states’ commitment to the EFSF could have negative rating implications. {NSN LTSTI43PWT1D}

.

S & P Affirms EFSF Rating At AAA; Outlook Stable {NSN LTSAXN3V2800}

.

Moody’s: Mixed credit implications from EU Summit measures. The effect of capital strengthening and funding guarantees on European banks is likely to be marginally positive. For Spain and Italy, however, the measures are likely to be neutral, as it is unclear whether they will ease their market funding pressures. It is also neutral to negative for the Aaa-rated euro area countries facing the prospect of providing additional support. .. the increased exposure should first loss guarantees be called and the prospect of more support in the future implies a greater risk to creditors of the countries that ultimately provide support {NSN LTST5A3PWT1D}

.

EFSF’s Regling Says Yuan Bond Issuance Possible .. issuing bonds in yuan would be contigent upon approval by Chinese authorities and may be difficult. He also said the EFSF would only help eurozone member countries “buy time” to implement policy reforms at the national level but maintained that it was not a long-term solution. {NSN LTVCA43V2800}, {NSN LTTGGZ1A1I4H}

.

China Calls on EU to Treat Exporters Fairly After WTO Ruling {NSN LTTNRF1A74E9}

.

Europe will not offer China concessions for aid- Juncker http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/30/eurozone-china-juncker-idUSL5E7LU0KV20111030

.

Sarkozy Attacked in France for Seeking China’s Help for Europe. Martine Aubry, the general secretary of the Socialist Party, said “The Europeans, by turning to the Chinese, are showing their weakness. How will Europe be able to ask China to stop undervaluing its currency or to accept reciprocal commercial accords?” {NSN LTW2V10D9L35}, http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/30/eurozone-china-france-idUSL5E7LU04S20111030

.

China is no “saviour” for the European Union, though it is willing to help the single currency union through its current debt crisis, the official Xinhua News Agency said in a weekend editorial. The English-language piece didn’t stray from recent government rhetoric about Beijing’s role {NSN LTVDE83V2800}, http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/30/china-europe-idUSL4E7LU02820111030

.

IMF Policy Paper: 2011 Triennial Surveillance Review - External Study - An Evaluation of IMF Surveillance of the Euro Area Summary: External Study prepared by Jean Pisani-Ferry, André Sapir, and Guntram B. Wolff:

This report provides an independent evaluation of recent IMF surveillance in the euro area (EA). It focuses on the euro area as a whole and on four countries severely hit by the recent economic and financial crisis, namely Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain.

http://www.imf.org/external/pp/longres.aspx?id=4601

re half the country will be unemployed or underemployed at that point.

Sometimes I wonder if we are not at that “point” already.
Twenty percent (of the woking age group) derive most, if not all of thier income from Social welfare, the powers to be seem to think that we can get by with less public servants and we have an increasing number of middle aged “retired” public servants.

In addition to that we self employed/small business sector which seems to be primarily preoccupied with debt management and trying to coax payment out of equally cash strapped customers : “It is work Jim but not as we know it”.

@Dork

“pre-bone swap economics” (I wont forget that one in a hurry)

Correction. The misplaced sum in the ‘bad bank’ that took over Hypo is €55.5 billion. No less than 7,000 financial derivatives are in question.

http://www.stern.de/wirtschaft/news/55-milliarden-buchungsfehler-jeder-zeigt-mit-dem-finger-auf-den-anderen-1745745.html

Google Translate puts its finegr on the political implications, especially for Schaeuble.

“Not a cat. A big angry lion.”

But But.

It’s all part of the plan isn’t it?

Time to do the Derivatives Bunga Bunga.

Well at least the ISDA are playing ball by not recognising a Credit Event.

Of course the determination Committee are the same people who wrote the CDS in the first place.

Why should they recognise a Credit Event?

There may yet be a mutiny on the Derivative Death Star.

First sign of Hyperinflation?

Loss of faith in the currency.

And different from the 1930’s this time the “currency” is derivative.

Good Golly Miss Molly.

Well if €2bn is a problem.

“OK We have a problem here”

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0vZa7g14F-Y

MF Global is looking good though and I’m absolutely sure the the Greek people will vote for 20 years of internal devaluation.

Buy Buy Buy.

I am absolutely not advocating a cold turkey solution. But it would be the logical consequence of a failure of the EFSF as exit from the euro for Ireland would be a total disaster while cold turkey would be what the description implies; intense withdrawal pains followed by a hopefully rapid recovery. There is no minimum level for public service wages - and pensions - other than what the state can afford to pay.

On the mortgage issue, we have an appropriately named website in daft.ie. Thousands of properties sitting immobile on the site while the owners refuse to accept prices that would clear the market. I saw, however, one promising swallow with regard to Kerry where a house was advertised as “priced to sell” (at one third of the initial asking price).

Meanwhile, we have conferences about the issue when there is a continued refusal to release the data on the actual prices that houses are selling at!

This state of prolonged delusion - aided by madcap schemes such as that recently touted by NAMA - can only delay the eventual denouement. It is to be hoped that it will be less painful than that for Greece.

Judging by the mood in Leinster House (post Oireachtas powers referendum) I am gald I am not a former senior Public “Servant”. Next time around I suspect that the electorate may well be asked to vote on a “clinically precise incision” rather than a confused “stab” .

Culturally the victms of the Vichy took revenge very quickly as soon as they had the chance but were quicker to forgive than the Quisling victims who tended to be slightly more restrained in their revenge but never forgot. This probably explains why Norway`s Scandinavian neighbours are not in the Euro and why France is in the mess it is.

I wonder what kind of regime certain Irish former senior Public “Servants” would like to be dealing with in the very near future? An enraged (but quick to forgive) former “Vichy” regime or a cold , clinical and calculated former “Quisling” regime.?

It will be interesting to observe how the failure of the former results in the determination of the latter in Ireland.

“This will put the cat amongst the pigeons”

Not a cat. A big angry lion.

Re the ‘going cold turkey’ option.

Given that way forward what happens to PS salaries ? 50% cuts?

On the basis of severe cuts to salaries what happens to the ongoing mortgage mess?

Don’t get me wrong I think there is merit in your argument as Morgan Kelly indicated some while ago but the wider implications on personal debt defaults means the Ray McSharry knife can’t realistically be taken from the drawer without another PCAR €25bn - or am I missing something?

http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite1_1_31/10/2011_412595

This will put the cat amongst the pigeons.

This is a artificial crisis to peserve commercial banks & their make believe assets.

from EFSF website on 13th Oct:

“Under the new structure EFSF is planning to issue one benchmark bond for Ireland for €3 billion before year end. Ireland was granted financial assistance on 28 November 2010, the terms and conditions of the financial assistance package were agreed by the Eurogroup and the EU’s Council of Economics and Finance Ministers. The issues initially scheduled in Q4, 2011 in support of Portugal’s financial assistance programme could now be issued in early 2012. Details will be disclosed in due time.”

If it gets to that point the entire euro game is over anyway. In which case, given that possibly half the country will be unemployed or underemployed at that point, we can have our Punt Nua central bank functioning as a CB should and providing all the money required, debt free, to revitalise our economy, without any risk of excess inflation.

In a somewhat haphazard way, this is exactly what China did late 08, early 09 & has maintained it’s pace of rapid growth following a mere downward ‘blip’.

With growth forecasts now dropping right across eurozone & elsewhere, (oh what a surprise! - not) more ‘austerity’ policies etc., the EU authorities & their economic advisers & their grasp of macroeconomics is going from bizarre to downright insane.

The ECB +must+ be brought in to play as a proper central back, to both back stop or supply required public sector debt relief & provide economic stimulus funds. All can be done debt free of course as the ECB is the +issuer+ of currency, not a +user+, or on some pretend gold standard.

The present course is analogous to a man trying to lift a bucket by the handle whilst standing in it.

I don’t hold out much hope that many here (apart from the obvious few) will bother to read an economist who actually understands macroeconomics properly, but here’s a link anyway, Prof Bill Mitchell.

http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=16685

Maybe if Ireland’s leading economists are so sure everything’s going swimmingly just now would just bookmark it for use a year or two down the road when the EMU & Ireland with it has failed disastrously?

Would the last one leaving please switch the light off, thanks.

If the state balanced its fiscal books while insisting that debt be paid we would be exchanging cows for pints.
Everybody in the domestic economy is dependent on someone producing money or credit here as money is at its core a mere utility to faciltate commerce.
If not ,all commerce would stop -therefore your living off the public purse argument is absurd.
It would mean every service / product provider in the land could not sell his services as no money would be available for exchange.
Thats Pre - Caveman economics , pre bone swap economics.
We are running a marginal current account surplus anyhow so whats your point ?

I would assume so!

The cold light of reality also seems to me to be about to break on the Emerald Isle in the matter of money borrowed, money still owed and money we would like to continue borrowing to keep us in the style to which we have become accustomed. I would agree with the position you take on various threads although I am no expert on the technical detail.

I re post here the link to the Liberation interview with a noted Greek professor of history. And they only had 400 years of Ottoman oppression! (Google Translate button will give the gist of it).

http://www.liberation.fr/economie/01012368435-la-dette-une-affaire-d-etat

In my last post (on this fast moving site) I was reacting to your link about a Greek referendum.

I also agree some “cold turkey” may well be on the menu for some time after this Christmas.
It will be interesting to see how many of our intrepid Public “Servants” will reach for their Golden parachutes as they prepare to exit and privately sneer at the rest of their colleagues who are actually doing a good (but expensive) job.