Categories
Uncategorized

Methodological Note: Reconciliation table from Exchequer balance to General Government Balance

here.

Categories
Uncategorized

Letter from Minister Noonan to Irish Fiscal Advisory Council responding to the council’s November 2013 Fiscal Assessment Report

here.

Categories
Uncategorized

Draghi: Der Spiegel Interview

This interview provides a useful end-of-year perspective on the current agenda facing the ECB: here.

Categories
Uncategorized

Christmas Economics Books

This Christmas, along with the usual socks, ties, and shoe polishing kits (no, not really), my presents given and received included quite a few economics books, and book vouchers. Here are the ones I got as presents–which ones do you think we should all look at in the next few months? Put a link (and just one link, as comments with more than one link need to be approved) in the comments.

The Battle of Bretton Woods. This book by Benn Steil shows us the story of how Bretton Woods negotiations evolved, how Keynes and US bureaucrat Harry Dexter White fought over the design of the post war international economy, and how White turned out, in the end, to be a Soviet spy. The book is riveting so far.

Political Arithmetic: Simon Kuznets and the Empirical Tradition in Economics. This book is a scientific biography of Nobellist Simon Kuznets and a trip through the development of national income accounting. The writing is somewhat turgid in places, but in fairness, it is hard to make the NIPA sexy.

The Economy of Prestige: Prizes, Awards, and the Circulation of Cultural Value. This is an attempt to understand why prizes proliferate in modern society, and why they are so important as signalling devices. The writing is great and it is an ambitious work of sociology.

Categories
Uncategorized

Jan 31st Conference on Economic Policy

On January 31st 2014, the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), the Department of Economics at the University of Limerick (UL) and the Geary Institute at UCD are hosting a conference on Irish economy policy at the Institute of Bankers.

The conference will explore current issues in economic policy in key areas:  Industrial Relations, Housing Debt, Banking, Fiscal Policy, Migration and the teaching of Economics. The outline programme is set out below.

The conference aims to provide a forum for discussion of new ideas on the conduct of Irish economic policy, including the extent to which economics and related disciplines can make a greater contribution to the conduct of economic policy in Ireland, and the extent to which policy can be designed more effectively. The speakers and chairs come from a range of institutions and disciplines and there also be online access to presentations to ensure to enable debate through blogs and twitter.  There will be a registration charge of €20. There is no charge for student participants. Coffee will be provided mid-morning and there will be a break at 12.45 to enable participants to take lunch.

Registration will open early in the New Year.

Irish Economic Policy Conference 2014

ESRI-DEW-UL-UCD Geary

Theme:           Economic Policy after the Bailout

Venue: The Institute of Bankers

Date: 31st January 2013

Programme

Session 1         9:30 – 10:50

1A.       The Impact of the Crisis on Industrial Relations

Chair:  TBC

Kieran Mulvey (DJEI)

Shay Cody (Impact)

Michelle O’Sullivan/Tom Turner (UL)

1B.       Economics: Teaching and Practice

Chair: Ronan Gallagher(DPER)

Brian Lucey (TCD): Economics and Finance Education Before and After the Crash

Liam Delaney (Stirling): Graduate Economics Education

Third Speaker TBC

Coffee

Session 2         11:20 – 1:00

2A.       Migration and the Labour Market

Chair: Philip O’Connell(UCD)

Piaras MacÉinri (UCC)

Peter Muhlau (TCD)

Alan Barrett/Irene Mosca (TCD)

2B.       Debt and Default

Chair:  Fiona Muldoon (CBI)

Greg Connor (NUIM)

Ronan Lyons (TCD)

Third Speaker TBC

Session 3         2:10 – 3:30

3A.       Health and Recovery

Chair: TBC

David Madden (UCD)

Charles Normand/Anne Nolan (TCD/ESRI)

Paul Gorecki (ESRI)

3B.       Fiscal Policy

Chair: Stephen Kinsella (UL)

Seamus Coffey (UCC): “The continuing constraints on Irish fiscal policy”

Diarmuid Smyth (IFAC)

Third speaker TBC

Coffee

Session 4         3:50 – 5:00

Plenary Session: Future of Banking

Categories
Uncategorized

An Irish Economy Christmas Carol by Gavin Kostick

An Irish Economy Christmas Carol

Part One

Old Trichet was dead. This fact must be distinct or nothing of the wonder of what follows is to be understood. As dead as the French Franc.

Ebeneezer Draghi certainly understood it. He had helped to carry Old Trichet’s coffin, had buried him and now had his picture on the wall in his cramped office at Frankfurt Towers.

It was a bitingly savage Christmas Eve, and outside the windows the winds howled and boomed like giants at some kind of utterly destructive, savage play.

The markets, thought Draghi gloomily, they don’t like Christmas. They don’t like the idea of a day off, why any moment now –

“Snr, Draghi?”

And there it was: Shay Crachit was looking up expectantly from his desk.

“What is it Mr Crachit?”

“About tomorrow. Christmas Day.”

“What about it?”

“I was thinking perhaps I might have the morning off.”

“With pay I suppose.”

“It is customary, sir.”

“Certainly, Mr Crachit, now you mention it, you may have the whole day off.”

“Why thank you, sir.”

“And the whole week, and the whole month. I’m putting you on a zero hour contract.”

“What’s that, sir?”

“It’s what we’re giving everyone. No guarantee of work, no guarantee of pay, but you have to be available twenty four hours a day, seven days a week and no holidays. What do you say to that Mr. Crachit?”

“Sounds most fair sir, we workers must be grateful for what the bosses chose to create for us what with their creative ability to magic up wealth which we so sadly lack.”

“Less of the class politics, Shay. Besides, there’s no workers now.”

“Destroyed them all have we, sir?”

“No, we’re all taxpayers now. Except the bloodsucking idlers.”

Categories
Uncategorized

Irish Economic Association Annual Conference: Call for Papers

The 28th annual Irish Economic Association Conference will be held at the Castletroy Park Hotel, Limerick on Thursday May 8th and Friday May 9th, 2014. The ESR guest lecture will be given by Rachel Griffith (Manchester) and the Edgeworth Lecture by Jordi Gali (CREI). Submissions can be made through this site, the deadline for submitted articles is February 7th, 2014.

Categories
Uncategorized

IMF on Ireland: Twelfth Review Under the Extended Arrangement and Proposal for Post-Program Monitoring

Here.

Categories
Economic growth Fiscal Policy

Domestic demand in historical context

Today’s CSO readings are good news and should be seen in their recent historical context.

News headlines are pointing to the ‘domestic’ part of the economy experiencing an uptick. Let’s look at final domestic demand as one measure of this. The two figures below bear this out, with the latest data coloured in red, and the series indexed to 2008 Q1, the peak of final domestic demand. The first plots out the movement from 2002 until 2013 Q3, the second from 2010.

The clear uptick can be seen, but the economy is obviously still fragile and the uptick, in the context of a rather demand-depressed economy, shouldn’t be overstated.

Categories
Uncategorized

NEO

One of the data mysteries in Ireland in the last few years has been the accumulation of large “net errors and omissions” in the balance of payments in 2010-2012 (summing to €26.4 billion over that period) – the large measured current account surpluses should have a counterpart in large measured net financial outflows but these are not to be found in the data, with one interpretation that the net financial outflows has been of an “unrecorded” nature.  The data for Q1-Q3 in 2013 suggest that the NEO term this year should be small – but with no dent made in the large stock of NEO from the last few years.  (Usually,  negative NEO values are quickly followed by positive NEO values so that the accumulated stock reverts to zero.)

This matters in terms of understanding the overall international financial position of the economy, which is a key indicator for many investors and in relation to working out the repair of sectoral balance sheets in Ireland.

Categories
Uncategorized

New CSO Data Releases

Balance of International Payments Q3 2013
Quarterly National Accounts Quarter 3 2013

Categories
Uncategorized

Winter 2013 Issue of ESR

Categories
Banking Crisis

BOI downgraded by Moody’s

Yesterday Moody’s downgraded BOI, lowering deposits to Ba2 and senior unsecured debt to Ba3, with negative outlook.  These are the same speculative grades it applies to AIB.  The agency has PTSB lower with a B1 rating for deposits and B3 for unsecured debt.

The Moody’s report on BOI is here and gives some useful insights into the reasoning applied by Moody’s.  The rating on subordinated debt in BOI was raised from C to B2 with preference stock raised to Caa2 also from C. Senior bonds covered by the ELG remain at Ba1 with stable outlook.

This is a chart of Moody’s recent deposit ratings for BOI.

Categories
Uncategorized

“The Irish economy has turned the corner”

Details of the Winter 2013 QEC from the ESRI are here.

From the Executive Summary:

 

Also included the in the QEC are:

Categories
Uncategorized

MTES 2014-2020

The Medium Term Economic Strategy for the seven years to 2020 is available here.

The main projections are in this table

Categories
Banking Crisis

EBA Transparency Exercise 2013

A useful summary report is here.

Detailed results on the Irish banks involved are also available:

All the material published is available here.

Categories
Uncategorized

New IEA Website

Is here. We’ll be updating the content incrementally.

Categories
Uncategorized

St Gallen on the Irish Bailout

The WSJ covers this research paper in this article.

Categories
Uncategorized

Irish Economic Policy Conference 2014

Irish Economic Policy Conference 2014

ESRI-DEW-UL-UCD Geary

Theme: Economic Policy after the Bailout

Venue: The Institute of Bankers

Date: 31st January 2013

The conference aims to provide a forum for discussion of new ideas on the conduct of Irish economic policy, including the extent to which economics and related disciplines can make a greater contribution to the conduct of economic policy in Ireland, and the extent to which policy can be designed more effectively. The speakers and chairs come from a range of institutions and disciplines and there also be online access to presentations to ensure to enable debate through blogs and twitter.  There will be a registration charge of €20. There is no charge for student participants. Coffee will be provided mid-morning and there will be a break at 12.45 to enable participants to take lunch.

Programme

9:15 – 10:45: Plenary: The Impact of the Crisis on Industrial Relations

Chair:  Aedín Doris (NUI Maynooth)

· Kieran Mulvey (Labour Relations Commission) Prospects for Pay and Industrial Relations in the Irish Economy

· Shay Cody (IMPACT Trade Union) The impact of the crisis on industrial relations – a public service focus”

· Michelle O’Sullivan/Tom Turner (University of Limerick) The Crisis and Implications for Precarious Employment’”

10.45-11.15: Coffee Break

11:15 – 12:45:  2A. Migration and the Labour Market

Chair:  Philip O’Connell (UCD Geary Institute)

· Piaras MacÉinrí (UCC) ‘Beyond the choice v constraint debate: some key findings from a recent representative survey on emigration’

· Peter Muhlau (TCD) Social ties and the labour market integration of Polish migrants in Ireland and Germany”

· Alan Barrett (ESRI & TCD) and Irene Mosca (TCD) “The impact of an adult child’s emigration on the mental health of an older parent”

2B. Economics: Teaching and Practice

Chair: Ronan Gallagher (Dept of Public Expenditure and Reform)

· Brian Lucey (TCD): “Finance Education Before and After the Crash”

· Liam Delaney (Stirling): “Graduate Economics Education”

· Jeffrey Egan (McGraw-Hill Education) “The commercial interest in Third Level Education”

12:45 – 1:45: Lunch Break

1:45 – 3:15: 3A. Health and Recovery

Chair: Alex White, TD, Minister of State

· David Madden (UCD) “Health and Wealth on the Roller-Coaster: Ireland 2003-2011”

· Charles Normand TCD) and Anne Nolan (TCD & ESRI) “The impact of the economic crisis on health and the health system in Ireland”

· Paul Gorecki (ESRI) ‘Pricing Pharmaceuticals: Has Public Policy Delivered?”

3B. Fiscal Policy

Chair: Stephen Kinsella (UL)

· Seamus Coffey (UCC) “The continuing constraints on Irish fiscal policy”

· Diarmuid Smyth (IFAC) ‘IFAC: Formative years and the future’

· Rory O’Farrell, (NERI) “Supplying solutions in demanding times: the effects of various fiscal measures”

3:15 – 3:30: Coffee Break

3:30 – 5:00: Plenary: Debt, Default and Banking System Design

Chair: Fiona Muldoon (Central Bank of Ireland)

· Greg Connor (NUI Maynooth) “An Economist’s Perspective on the Quality of Irish Bank Assets”

· Kieran McQuinn and Yvonne McCarthy (Central Bank of Ireland) “Credit conditions in a boom and bust property market”

· Colm McCarthy “Designing a Banking System for Economic Recovery”

· Ronan Lyons (TCD) “Household expectations and the housing market: from bust to boom”

Categories
Uncategorized

EC Autumn 2013 Review

The latest European Commission staff review of the EU/IMF programme is here.

UPDATE: Here is one chart from the review.  There are many others.

Categories
Uncategorized

Irish Debt Trio Eased the Way to Bailout Exit

This Reuters/NYT article highlights the role of NTMA roadshows in the return to market access – here.

Categories
EMU Fiscal Policy

Nick Crafts on debt and the ECB

Here.

Categories
Inequality Social conditions

ESRI Studies on Taxes and Transfers

Here are links to two studies released through the ESRI this week.  One chart is taken from each but there is much more detail in both particularly the second.

Distributional Impact of Tax, Welfare and Public Service Pay Policies: Budget 2014 and Budgets 2009-2014

   

Social Transfers and Poverty Alleviation in Ireland

Categories
Uncategorized

Winter 2013 QEO from NERI

Available here.

Categories
Uncategorized

Minister Noonan at Bloomberg

Yesterday’s Irish Times covered an appearance by the Minster for Finance at Bloomberg with ‘Noonan vows to end cycle of boom-and-bust economics’.

A recording of the short address given and the subsequent Q&A session is available here.

Categories
Uncategorized

Data releases

Live Register here.

Fiscal update:

Categories
Uncategorized

Banking Union Speeches

From today’s IIEA event:

Categories
Banking Crisis

Balance Sheet Assessments

AIB and Bank of Ireland have released statements (one somewhat shorter than the other) following the results of the balance sheet assessments carried out by the Central Bank.

UPDATE: The statement released from PTSB at 11am also reflects a paucity of information.

Categories
Uncategorized

Consumption and credit constraints during financial crises

ESRI researchers (Petra Gerlach, Rossana Merola and Conor O’Toole) have a new VOX article here.

Two other new VOX articles are also of note –  on migration flows here;  on Italian productivity (co-authored by my TCD colleague Fadi Hassan) here.