An Irish Economy Christmas Carol by Gavin Kostick

An Irish Economy Christmas Carol

Part One

Old Trichet was dead. This fact must be distinct or nothing of the wonder of what follows is to be understood. As dead as the French Franc.

Ebeneezer Draghi certainly understood it. He had helped to carry Old Trichet’s coffin, had buried him and now had his picture on the wall in his cramped office at Frankfurt Towers.

It was a bitingly savage Christmas Eve, and outside the windows the winds howled and boomed like giants at some kind of utterly destructive, savage play.

The markets, thought Draghi gloomily, they don’t like Christmas. They don’t like the idea of a day off, why any moment now –

“Snr, Draghi?”

And there it was: Shay Crachit was looking up expectantly from his desk.

“What is it Mr Crachit?”

“About tomorrow. Christmas Day.”

“What about it?”

“I was thinking perhaps I might have the morning off.”

“With pay I suppose.”

“It is customary, sir.”

“Certainly, Mr Crachit, now you mention it, you may have the whole day off.”

“Why thank you, sir.”

“And the whole week, and the whole month. I’m putting you on a zero hour contract.”

“What’s that, sir?”

“It’s what we’re giving everyone. No guarantee of work, no guarantee of pay, but you have to be available twenty four hours a day, seven days a week and no holidays. What do you say to that Mr. Crachit?”

“Sounds most fair sir, we workers must be grateful for what the bosses chose to create for us what with their creative ability to magic up wealth which we so sadly lack.”

“Less of the class politics, Shay. Besides, there’s no workers now.”

“Destroyed them all have we, sir?”

“No, we’re all taxpayers now. Except the bloodsucking idlers.”

Irish Economic Association Annual Conference: Call for Papers

The 28th annual Irish Economic Association Conference will be held at the Castletroy Park Hotel, Limerick on Thursday May 8th and Friday May 9th, 2014. The ESR guest lecture will be given by Rachel Griffith (Manchester) and the Edgeworth Lecture by Jordi Gali (CREI). Submissions can be made through this site, the deadline for submitted articles is February 7th, 2014.

IMF on Ireland: Twelfth Review Under the Extended Arrangement and Proposal for Post-Program Monitoring

Here.

Domestic demand in historical context

Today’s CSO readings are good news and should be seen in their recent historical context.

News headlines are pointing to the ‘domestic’ part of the economy experiencing an uptick. Let’s look at final domestic demand as one measure of this. The two figures below bear this out, with the latest data coloured in red, and the series indexed to 2008 Q1, the peak of final domestic demand. The first plots out the movement from 2002 until 2013 Q3, the second from 2010.

The clear uptick can be seen, but the economy is obviously still fragile and the uptick, in the context of a rather demand-depressed economy, shouldn’t be overstated.

NEO

One of the data mysteries in Ireland in the last few years has been the accumulation of large “net errors and omissions” in the balance of payments in 2010-2012 (summing to €26.4 billion over that period) – the large measured current account surpluses should have a counterpart in large measured net financial outflows but these are not to be found in the data, with one interpretation that the net financial outflows has been of an “unrecorded” nature.  The data for Q1-Q3 in 2013 suggest that the NEO term this year should be small – but with no dent made in the large stock of NEO from the last few years.  (Usually,  negative NEO values are quickly followed by positive NEO values so that the accumulated stock reverts to zero.)

This matters in terms of understanding the overall international financial position of the economy, which is a key indicator for many investors and in relation to working out the repair of sectoral balance sheets in Ireland.