Course outlines of the great economists

Irwin Collier has a fascinating blog with archival materials on the kinds of things the great economists taught via their course outlines. He has other stuff up there, but I know readers of this blog will enjoy this site. There’s some Irish work of interest here too: You’ll find references to Cairnes in Orcutt’s 1950 Empirical Economics courses, the work of UCD’s George O’Brien work on mediaeval economic thought appears on the Harvard reading list c.1950, and more.

The Economics of City Regrowth – Trinity College Dublin PhD Grattan Scholarship

The Department of Economics at Trinity College Dublin invites applications for a Grattan Scholarship at PhD level, starting in September 2016, on the economics of city regrowth. The funding includes all fees, an annual stipend of €20,000 and a budget for research expenses, over a four-year period. In return, Scholars are expected to undertaking teaching and research assistance as required. Interested applicants are requested to contact Ronan Lyons (ronan.lyons@tcd.ie) by Monday May 16th.

More information is available at this link: The Economics of City Regrowth – Grattan Scholarship 2016-2020

Barrington Medal and JSSISI call for papers

The Statistical & Social Inquiry Society of Ireland is entering its 170th year – which surely means it must rank among the oldest societies of its kind on the planet. As it enters a new year, I would just like to draw the attention of this blog’s readers to the following two notices:

  1. The Barrington Medal, 2016/17, abstract due by end-July.
  2. A call for papers for the Society’s journal, with submissions due by early August.

Draft SPU Update: Risks

The Department of Finance has released a Spring-less Statement (.pdf), showing some interesting debt dynamics projections and a really nice risk-assessment section (see page 26) and their likely impacts on the Irish economy. Brexit figures highly, as one might imagine, but so do other external demand shocks and domestic issues, and the fiscal risks associated with not meeting our climate change targets. The Department writes:

There are fiscal risks associated with a legally binding EU Effort Sharing Decision on climate change covering the 2013-2020 period. Ireland is obliged to achieve a 20 per cent Greenhouse Gas emissions reduction (compared to 2005 levels) in certain sectors. Current EPA projections estimate that Ireland will not achieve this reduction and failure to comply may incur costs of hundreds of millions through the purchase of carbon credits until such time as the target is complied with. Similarly, further new costs may arise in the context of a new EU climate and energy framework for the period 2020-2030, which will set new emissions reduction targets.

Scary stuff.

Lecturer in Economics, Queens University Belfast

The Queen’s Management School, at Queen’s University Belfast, is hiring a Lecturer in Economics. The School is particularly keen to attract those with expertise in macroeconomics; public economics; health, education and welfare economics; and labour economics. More details here. The closing date is next Monday, 25 April 2016.

Macrofinancial History and the New Business Cycle Facts

Jordà, Schularick and Taylor have produced a must-read paper, summarising the results of a decade-long research effort to create a long-run macro-financial data set for 17 countries. The paper is here (.pdf) and they provide some new stylized facts they document should “prove fertile ground for the development of a newer generation of macroeconomic models with a prominent role for financial factors”.Screen Shot 2016-04-17 at 21.57.06

In particular, they document a ‘hockey-stick’ effect of private sector creditto GDP for a range of economies, and one of the hockey sticks can be seen in the figure below. After about 1950, for most of the elements the authors study, finance and leverage takes a more and more central role in the development of modern economies.

PostDoc on the Economics of Flooding at UCC

UCC’s Dr Tom McDermott is looking to hire a post-doc to work on a project on the economics of flooding (with an Ireland focus). The project is funded by the EPA, and involves collaboration with Swenja Surminski in the Grantham Research Institute, LSE. The job advert is here and closes May 3rd.

(Link updated, thx Enda H.)

Maintenance & Upgrade Time

The site will be down this coming Sunday morning  Saturday afternoon for maintenance and upgrading. After backing up the database, etc., we’ll be moving the design of the site to the Twenty Sixteen default, which is much better for viewing on phones, tablets, and other devices. We’ll also be adding more features for posters on data and images as well as other upgrades.

There will be more changes coming in the next few weeks, so please bear with us.

Odds on Brexit

I posted before about David Bell’s analysis of the Scottish referendum bookies odds. The bookmakers seemed to do a good job not overreacting to the late poll numbers showing a marked swing to Yes. The days before the referendum were throwing up some dramatic poll results but the odds did not adjust as dramatically, implying the bookies were either temporally averaging across polls, had some priors about the quality of the polls, or were doing a degree of Bayesian updating or something similar. David has provided a nice piece here for those looking to keep track of bookies odds for Brexit. For now, it looks like Stay is the favorite by quite a margin and more than one would think just by looking at opinion polls.