The latest exchequer returns are in, and are a bit down relative to trend and to target month-on-month. From the release:
July 2016 Outturn
|July 2016 Target||Excess/Shortfall (€m)||Excess/Shortfall (%)|
The two numbers everyone will focus on are the 13% drop in customs taxes and the 16% drop in corporation tax.
In terms of money in the door up to July, the State is still up 8.5% on last year, so we shouldn’t be too worried about the supply of sweeties come Budget day just yet. The other important thing to note is just how volatile these data are–they bounce around a lot, and you can read very little into one month’s data. So please, before everyone runs off saying Brexit is killing the Irish economy, it isn’t. Or perhaps more accurately, it isn’t just yet.
Another interesting piece of data shows Irish consumers are a bit put off but unlikely to develop Brexit flu from contact with their nearest neighbour.
While UK PMI data is nose-bleed inducing, the recently-released KBC consumer sentiment index shows that Irish consumer sentiment declined in July, but the scale of the drop was relatively modest when measured beside its UK equivalent, as the chart below shows.