Anglo Split Announcement

The statement from the Department of Finance is here.

A quick reaction. That the new bank isn’t making lending is a good thing. The bank didn’t have the capacity to transform itself into a small business lender or the other proposals that the management were floating. It will presumably need less money to be capitalised as a pure deposit-funding bank.  However, nothing in this statement about the bad bank gives us any reason to think that Anglo will cost the taxpayer less than the projections that have been floating around. That it is still going to be “a licensed regulated bank” (unlike, I believe, the Northern Rock equivalent) could be interpreted as a sign that all bondholders will get their money back, though that may be over-reading this (pretty minimal) statement.

INBS and the ECB

Today’s story about INBS issuing €4 billion in government-guaranteed debt effectively to itself (i.e. issuing it, then keeping it on the balance sheet to use for repo with the ECB) seems a bit strange. Indeed, normally the ECB doesn’t allow this kind of thing.  Page 39 of its eligible collateral documentation contains the following guideline:

Irrespective of the fact that a marketable or nonmarketable asset fulfills all eligibility criteria, a counterparty may not submit as collateral any asset issued or guaranteed by itself or by any other entity with which it has close links.

The INBS issue seems to be ok, however, because of the following qualification:

The above provision on close links does not apply to: (a) close links between the counterparty and the public authorities of EEA countries or in the case where a debt instrument is guaranteed by a public sector entity which has the right to levy taxes.

So the government guarantee appears to be what allows INBS to do this.

Business and Finance Interview with Anglo Management

Business and Finance have an interview with Anglo CEO and CFO, Mike Anysley and Maarten van Eden.

The Guarantee Extension Decision

Much of the reporting of yesterday’s guarantee decision (DoF press release here, explanatory notes here) seems to be a bit confused.

Most of the coverage has focused on something called “the guarantee”. However, there are in fact two separate state guarantee schemes. The original is the Credit Institutions (Financial Support) Act 2008 or CIFS, which was conceived on September 29, 2008. This covered essentially all liabilities of the covered banks apart from undated subordinated debt. However, the cover only extended to the end of September 2010, so that if a bank defaulted on any of these liabilities on October 1, 2010, the government would not have any responsibility. Because of this limitation, most of the bonds issued after CIFS was put in place matured in September 2010.

To allow banks to issue debt that matured later than September 2010, the government then put in place the Credit Institutions (Eligible Liabilities Guarantee) Scheme 2009 which is known as the ELG scheme. This allowed bonds to be issued with maturities of up to 5 years, with the bonds having the full backing of the Irish government out to their maturity. This scheme also guaranteed deposits and other short-term liabilities.

The ELG scheme was originally supposed to run out at the same time as the CIFS guarantee, so there was only a relatively short window in which bonds could be issued and still carry the ELG cover to maturity. Actually, there was some confusion in these parts about whether the ELG scheme was supposed to run out in June 2010 or September 2010. Whatever the original date, in June, the Commission allowed for elements of the scheme to be extended to December. As the DoF’s explanatory note states

On 28 June, the Commission approved the extension of the issuance window under the ELG Scheme from 29 September to 31 December 2010 for liabilities of between three months and five years duration (except interbank deposits) and retail deposits regardless of maturity (up to a fixed term of five years).

Yesterday’s announcement relates to the ELG scheme, not the CIFS scheme. What was announced was as follows:

This announcement adds the remaining liabilities under the ELG Scheme to the extension being short term liabilities (0-3 months) including corporate deposits and interbank deposits so that now all liabilities under the Scheme benefit from the full extension of the issuance window to 31 December 2010.

I have seen reporting today claiming that yesterday’s announcement is an extension of the CIFS guarantee with the exception of the removal of subordinated debt. That does not appear to be the case. It is not an extension of the original CIFS guarantee, though it does lead to deposits that had been covered under the CIFS scheme retaining their coverage, now from the ELG scheme.

Also, unless I’m misunderstanding something, it seems as though more than just subordinated debt is losing coverage. As the DoF note explains, in relation to bonds, the ELG only covers “specific issuances of eligible debt securities and deposits (of up to five years) placed during the relevant issuance period.” Based on this, my interpretation is that senior debt that is currently covered by the CIFS scheme but which has not been issued under ELG scheme will no longer have a state guarantee as of 1 October.

With all the acronyms and complications, I may be misunderstanding this. If so, please let me know and I’ll post a clarification.

New university rankings

The latest QS university rankings are out. The rules have changed, so comparisons to last year are nonsense.

Ireland has three universities in the Top 200: TCD (52), UCD (114) and UCC (184). The others require a bit of searching: UCG (232), DCU (330), DIT (395), Maynooth (401-450), UL (451-500).

It this good or bad? I counted the number of universities in the top 200. Ireland (4.4 mln people) does better than Austria (8.3 mln), Finland (5.4 mln), Greece (11.3 mln), Portugal (11.3 mln),  Norway (4.9 mln), Singapore (5.0 mln) and Spain (46.0 mln); about as good as Denmark (5.5 mln) and New Zealand (4.4 mln); but worse than Belgium (10.8 mln), Hong Kong (7.0 mln) and Sweden (9.3 mln).