Year: 2010

2009 Exchequer Deficit

The December Exchequer returns have now been published. The Exchequer deficit for 2009 was €24.6 billion, almost twice the level recorded in 2008. That said, the figures came in a bit better than most people expected a number of months ago, which is good news.

As an aside, I’d note that this outcome clearly falls somewhat short of the “close to €30 billion” deficit mentioned in the letter signed by the 46 economists in August. As I noted at the time, I think this was pretty reasonable in the context of what was known then. Of course, this figure was not an important part of the letter. The substance of the letter related to NAMA and the only point of the deficit references, as I understood it, was to put the risk of NAMA losses in a context.

I have little doubt now that the comments section here will soon contain denunciations of the famed “46” declaring them to be all sorts of evil. But then flame-throwing trolls are an unfortunate part of any blog that allows comments.

Iceland’s President refuses to sign Icesave deal

Iceland’s president refuses to sign the Icesave deal, which would pave the way to reimburse Britain and the Netherlands for nearly €4bn lost in a failed Icelandic bank. According to the FT he took this decision as it was “in the interests of democracy to put the legislation to a referendum, given the importance of the issue to Iceland’s future”.  NAMA would seem to be similarly important to Ireland’s future?

Low Quality of Irish Universities Confirmed

I’ve been patiently waiting for a response to, or even a report in Ireland of, the  publication of the 2009 Shanghai  Jiao Tong Academic Ranking of World Universities.  See http://www.arwu.org/indexs.jsp.  Could this possibly be a case of socioanalytic denial? 

This is by far the most widely used ranking in the world for three reasons.  It is almost impossible to ‘game’. It is used as an information tool by internationally mobile students.   It is designed to honestly assess the evolution of the relative position of Chinese Universities: we know it’s honest because they don’t score well.  

There have been enthusiastic references in the Irish media and in this blog to other university rankings.  This is because some Irish universities appear to be important in these.  But you should be suspicious: they also rank many British universities well above obviously superior US institutions.  The apparent success of some Irish Universities is a by-product of this ludicrous outcome.

Go on:  check it out.  Has the Portarlington Institute for Science and Society got the recognition it deserves?

Insider Stories from Iceland

The literature on the Icelandic crisis is growing.  While the report of the ‘Truth Commission’  is eagerly awaited, it is also very interesting to read insider accounts of the crisis.

I found Why Iceland?: How One of the World’s Smallest Countries Became the Meltdown’s Biggest Casualty by Asgeir Jonsson to be an excellent read.  Jonsson was the Chief Economist at Kaupthing Bank.

A new release is Frozen Assets: How I Lived Iceland’s Boom and Bust, which is written by Armann Thorvaldsson, a former CEO at Kaupthing in the UK.

While it is illuminating to read such insider accounts,  it is also important to recognise the inherent trade off:  such individuals have access to non-public information and can provide a unique perspective; however, by the same token, the interpretations offered in such books are not necessarily fully balanced.

Still, it would be very helpful if senior figures in the Irish banks provided such insider accounts of the boom and bust in the Irish banking system.

Statement from Minister of Finance

Brian Lenihan has released a statement about his health status: you can read it here.

There is a lengthy and wide-ranging interview with the minister on the News At One: you can listen here.

With best wishes to the Minister for a speedy recovery.