When The Levy Breaks

When the levee breaks, I’ll have no place to stay.
Mean old levee taught me to weep and moan,
Lord, mean old levee taught me to weep and moan

Source.

The new Programme for Government document contains the government’s last approach to convincing the Greens, and to a lesser extent the general public, that NAMA will not be a costly exercise for the tax payer: A commitment to include a post-dated levy in the NAMA legislation.

I’ll try to boil the problems I see with this approach down to four observations.

Guest Post from James Nix (Green Party)

James Nix from the Green Party has written the guest post below.

Greens Against NAMA Youtube Videos

The Greens Against Nama group have released a number of videos featuring interviews with various people who disagree with the Nama proposals. Link here. It looks like they may have more to upload but thus far there are a number of interesting interviews with people such as Ronan Lyons, Shane Ross and Peter Mathews, a former banker with ICC and currently an independent banking and property consultant.

Lenihan on Stiglitz

At Trinity College last night, Joe Stiglitz repeated his criticism of NAMA. The Irish Times reports:

He said Nama is likely to “burden this generation for 25-50 years or more. I am very uncomfortable with a government with such a minority support making such a decision.”

He said the view there is no alternative is “just wrong”.

“There is an alternative. Play by the rules of capitalism – if you can’t pay back your debt, shareholders and bondholders lose. If the Government puts in money, it needs to get control commensurate with the money put in. It also should get a return proportionate to the risk involved – in this case, it’s a big risk.”

The Minister for Finance has responded to Stiglitz’s criticisms. According to Bloomberg:

Lenihan pointed to the U.S. as an example of a rescue package that was attacked before succeeding.

“I simply do not accept his analysis,” Lenihan said. “As far as Professor Stiglitz is concerned, he made the same criticism of the U.S. bank package, which is now proved to be a tremendous success.”

Of course, the US TARP bank package, which Minister Lenihan is referring to as a tremendous success, started life like NAMA as a plan to overpay for troubled assets but was changed to become a plan in which the US government made equity investments in the leading financial institutions.

Stiglitz has argued that the terms of the TARP equity investments were insufficiently generous to the US taxpayer—see here for a report from TARP’s Congressional Oversight Panel which endorses this viewpoint. It would be misleading, however, to characterise the Stiglitz’s criticisms of TARP as being directly related to his views on NAMA. On this issue, see here for an interview with Joe from Feburary in which, among other things, he discusses proposals then being floated for the US government to purchase bad assets—he characterises Paulson’s orginal TARP plan as “cash for trash”.

TARP and Lending

I have noted before that even if one sets aside issues relating to fairness and cost to the Irish taxpayer, I don’t believe that NAMA will achieve what the government states is its purpose, namely “getting credit flowing again.”

In this context, it is interesting to see that there is a debate this week in the US, prompted by this government report, which focuses on, among other things, whether TARP increased lending at assisted institutions. Chicago’s Casey Mulligan writes about it here.

The report’s conclusions, on page 30, noted that there were US government officials who had concerns about the health of some of the banks being assisted and that statements that TARP was going to get lending going again created “unrealistic expectations.”

James Kwak of Baseline Scenario responds here that the politicians knew full well that TARP probably wouldn’t increase lending—that it was more an emergency measure to keep the banking system afloat—and that these claims were made simply to obtain the necessary political support for an unpopular measure. Sound familiar?