Housing the Homeless

James Surowiecki has an interesting piece on housing the homeless here.

Symposium at NUI Maynooth: “Can Social Investment Save Social Europe?”

On Thurs., 29th of May, a special seminar on Social Investment in Europe will be hosted by the Department of Sociology/ NIRSA, Political Economy and Work Cluster and the New Deals in the New Economy project. The seminar will run from 9.30 to 1.30 and will be followed by the launch of a new MA in Sociology (Work, Labour Markets and Employment) by Minister Joan Burton.

‘Social Investment’ focuses on investing in people’s skills and capacities and supporting them to participate fully in employment and social life (EU Commission). Does ‘social investment’ lead to a renewal or an erosion of the welfare state? Will ‘social investment’ support economic and social recovery?

The event will start at 9.30 with registration and coffee followed by the seminar at 10.00 in the Phoenix building on the North Campus in NUIM keynoted by Prof Anton Hemerijck, VU University Amsterdam and Prof Brian Nolan, UCD, and chaired by Prof. Seán Ó Riain.

Following a break for coffee there will be a roundtable discussion with: Rossella Ciccia (NUIM), Tom Healy (NERI) and Rory O’Donnell (NESC), chaired by Mary Murphy (NUIM).

See more at: http://www.nuim.ie/sociology/news/can-social-investment-save-social-europe

Please register for seminar by emailing newdeals@nuim.ie before May 26th, 2014

Survey on Income and Living Conditions

The results from the 2012 wave of the EU-SILC have been published by the CSO.

There had been some difficulties with the statistics estimated from the survey in previous years which may account for the lag in getting the 2012 data published.  The data was collected between January 2012 and January 2013.

The main results are summarised in this table.

Of the reported 2012 changes in the poverty and income inequality measures, only the change in the deprivation rate is reported as being statistically significant.

The average weekly net equivalised disposable income for the bottom decile was €118.55 in 2012.  Income decile data was not provided in the 2011 release and the 2010 figures were withdrawn.  In the 2009 release, the average weekly equivalised net disposable income for the bottom decile was €160.05.

Comparable figures for the top decile are €1,041.71 in 2009 and €958.44 in 2012.  It should be noted that possible differences in the composition of the deciles between years make such changes difficult to fully interpret.  The income shares by decile are provided in this table.

The first table here shows that average equivalised disposable income for the population fell by 10.5 per cent between 2009 (€23,326) and 2012 (€20,856).  The second table shows that the share going to the bottom decile fell by 16.7 per cent between the same years (from 3.6 per cent in 2009 to 3.0 per cent in 2012). 

There is more detail in the full publication.  The Department of Social Protection have issued this press release.

Doublespeak of the day

According to the Irish Independent, Minister Noonan was worrying in public last night about the shortage of family homes in the Dublin area. But he also apparently said:

“We need to get property prices up another bit.”

To which the only possible response is: “why”?

If you are stuck in a malfunctioning currency union and can’t devalue, then don’t you want to get all costs down as much as possible, especially if they are going to feed into wage demands? Why interfere with the market in this particular case?

Q4 2013 Mortgage Arrears Statistics

The Central Bank have released the Q4 2013 update of their mortgage arrears statistics

For Primary Dwelling Houses (PDHs), 12.6 per cent of accounts are in arrears of 90 days or more.  This compares to 11.4 per cent of accounts in similar arrears in the unaudited monthly data for December published by the Department of Finance

The Department of Finance figures cover the six banks operating under the Mortgage Arrears Resolution Targets (MART) process.  These banks (ACC, AIB, BOI, KBC, PTSB, ULSTER) provide 90 per cent of mortgage lending in Ireland so it is clear that the remaining 10 per cent of mortgages (from the former BOSI and INBS as well as the various sub-prime lenders) have a far higher arrears rate – somewhere around 23.5 per cent.  The 90-day arrears rates for the INBS and subprime mortgages are greater than 50 per cent.

In today’s Central Bank statistics we see the total number of PDH accounts in arrears continue to fall and for the first time there was a decline in the number of accounts 90 days or more in arrears. 

However, the situation of those in existing arrears continues to deteriorate with yet another significant increase in the number of accounts now 720 days or more in arrears (31,834 to 33,589). 

On average the accounts greater than 720 days in arrears are just under €42,000 in arrears.  Across the statistics there is an average of roughly 1.25 accounts per household.

The outstanding balance on mortgages in arrears fell from  €25.6 billion to €24.4 billion of which €18.2 billion are in arrears of 90 days or more.  The total amount of arrears rose from €2.17 billion to €2.24 billion.

The total amount of PDH mortgage debt continues to fall and is now at €107.4 billion, compared to €118.6 billion when the series began in September 2009.  However, it should be noted that the release mentions “asset sales” that took place over the quarter but it is not clear what impact these have on the figures.  The sales refer to mortgages that were sold by one of the reporting institutions, and are therefore no longer included in the statistics.

At the of December there were 84,053 restructured PDH accounts and 79.3 per cent were deemed to be meeting the conditions of the restructure.  There is a new table providing these rates by each type of restructure.

Reduced payment less than interest only (4,264) and arrears capitalisation (18,516 accounts) are the worst performing restructures for PDH accounts.  There were only 14 accounts granted a permanent interest rate reduction.

As expected the number of split mortgages continues to grow rapidly.  It increased from 1,154 in Q3 to 3,268 in Q4 and, with 96.3 per cent compliance, it is the best performing restructure for PDHs.  This is likely linked to the incentives built in to the restructure.  There are likely to be many more split mortgages coming through as there are 9,722 restructured accounts classed as “Other” most of which are “accounts that have been offered a long-term solution, pending the completion of six months of successful payment.”

There were 63 forced repossession in the quarter and 105 voluntary surrenders.

Court proceedings were initiated in 1,491 cases.  Up to Q2 2013 the average number of proceedings issued per quarter was around 250.  This increased massively in the second half of 2013.  During Q4, 258 court proceedings were concluded and 82 court orders for repossession were granted.  Of the 176 concluded by other means it is  probable that many of these see the borrower and lender enter a new arrangement through a restructuring of the original loan agreement with others ending by way of voluntary surrender/abandonment.

Data on the Buy-to-Let sector are also included in both releases.