The next milestone in Ireland’s crisis resolution efforts will be the March 31st stress tests. In addition to revealing important information to financial markets, the results of the tests are likely to impact the political debate about the appropriate crisis resolution strategy, not least the contentious issue of default. At the moment, there appears to be a lot of confusion about what the stress tests are all about, which is important to clear up in advance to prevent the release being counterproductive in terms of the political debate. I offer some thoughts after the break, but I hope others will weigh in on the thread.
Here‘s an article by my UCD colleague Daniel Thomas that makes an important argument. If the Irish authorities are to get anywhere in relation to getting a better deal on issues such as the interest rates on official loans or dealing with our banking problems, they cannot rely on arguments based on narrow self interest.
Dan points to the dangers to the EU political reform process stemming from Ireland getting a bad deal. I think one can also argue that a deeper role for the EU in solving Ireland’s banking crisis can also be justified on the grounds that it can help to maintain financial stability throughout the Eurozone.
Via Namawinelake, here‘s the up-to-now secret “Blueprint for Ireland’s Recovery” that has been produced by a group that apparently call themselves Ireland First. As you’ve probably heard, the group includes businessmen like Dermot Desmond and Denis O’Brien as well as various grandees with links to Fine Gael (John Bruton, Frank Flannery, Peter Sutherland), Fianna Fail (Ray McSharry) and Labour (Dick Spring).
Naturally, given that it’s an economic recovery plan, there isn’t an economist in sight. And, as is often the way with non-economist plans, it’s mainly a long laundry list of stuff the group would like to see happen combined with ambitious claims and targets related to what might happen if the chosen policies were adopted. Many of the policies proposed are sensible, some less so.
I particularly disliked this bit: “There needs to be a positive engagement with editorial and ownership/senior management of media organisations in order to ensure we have balanced coverage and that good news stories are covered.” Ah yes, the meeja need to stop talking down the economy. Some things never change.
The Central Bank has published the macroeconomic scenarios for its 2011 Prudential Capital Assessment Review (PCAR).
The Commission’s new proposals for a Common Consolidated Corporate Tax Base (CCCTB) are available here.