Germany’s Bad Bank Plan

The German government announced a plan last week for dealing with problem assets on the books of its banks.  This plan has been compared favourably to NAMA by a number of Irish commentators but I’m not really sure why.

The essence of the plan, as described by the Wall Street Journal, is as follows

banks will have the option of putting structured products, such as mortgage-backed securities, into special-purpose vehicles at 90% of their present book value, which is often far above the assets’ likely market value if sold today.

In return, the vehicle would give its parent bank a note promising to repay it an equivalent amount in up to 20 years’ time. The German state would guarantee the repayment in exchange for a fee from the bank, which would free up capital by swapping toxic assets for a risk-free note.

In addition, the bank would have to pay the vehicle the difference, spread out over as long as 20 years, between 90% of an asset’s book value and its estimated ultimate value when it matures. If an asset’s ultimate value turns out to be less than auditors’ estimates, the bank will have to pay dividends to the German state instead of to shareholders until the full loss is covered. If assets perform better than expected, the bank gets the upside.

Plans for the Banks

Brian Lucey provides a critique of the various banking plans here.

.

Bubbles

Courtesy of Mark Thoma, here is a nice graph with house price-rent ratios for five countries, including Ireland.

Competitiveness

At a time when the country is trying to regain competitiveness, it is worth pointing to areas where we are extremely competitive. €150 will get you in to the rest of the season’s home league games at Shamrock Rovers, and you can add kids to the half season ticket at €25 a pop. How much change would you have out of €150 after a Ryanair flight to Old Trafford, a match ticket there, and a couple of prawn sandwiches?

Other League of Ireland clubs also offer good value. So get out and support your local club!

Quotes for the day

Simon Johnson is having fun with the sayings of Peer Steinbrück over at the Baseline Scenario, but the German Finance Minister is facing stiff competition from Franz Muentefering, who apparently showed up at an unemployment rally simultaneously saying that “We must do all we can at the moment to protect jobs” and that “There will be no third stimulus package”. Talk about chutzpah.

Speaking of stimulus packages, the latest IMF Regional Economic Outlook for Europe makes some interesting points about the size of fiscal multipliers at times like this: