Central Bank workshop on macroprudential policy

The Central Bank will host a workshop entitled “Evaluating the effectiveness of macroprudential policies” on Wednesday February 8th in the Institute of Banking in conjunction with the European Central Banking Network and the Centre for Economic Policy Research. A description of the event is outlined below.

Macroprudential policies to mitigate structural and cyclical systemic risk are now in operation in a number of countries.  Assessing the impact of these policies on the resilience of the financial sector and the wider economy is at the core of research and policy activities following the crisis.  Given the multi-faceted concept of financial stability that these policies are meant to contribute to and the still emerging theoretical framework, a number of analytical approaches have been advanced for policy evaluation and design.  The workshop will bring together the policy and academic communities to consider these evaluation approaches covering the use of macro models, time series techniques and the analysis of micro data. Of particular interest are those policies aimed at enhancing the resilience of banks, households and other sectors of the economy through building up structural capital buffers (e.g. G-SIB, O-SII, SRB) and enacting borrower-based measures (e.g. Loan-to-Value and Loan-to-Income limits).

Programme: 

08:45 Coffee and Registration

09:15 Session 1 Policy Panel – Chaired by Fabrizio Coricelli (Paris School of Economics and CEPR) with Vice-President Claudia M. Buch (Deutsche Bundesbank), Governor Boštjan Jazbec (Banka Slovenije), Governor Philip R. Lane (Central Bank of Ireland)

10:00 The use and effectiveness of macroprudential policies: New evidence – Eugenio Cerutti (International Monetary Fund)

10:50 Coffee

11:10 Inspecting the mechanism: Leverage and the Great Recession in the Eurozone – Philippe Martin (Science Po Paris and CEPR)

12:00 The impact of bank capital on economic activity – evidence from a mixed-cross-section GVAR model – Christoffer Kok (European Central Bank)

12:50 Lunch

14:00 Capital inflows – the good, the bad and the bubbly – Dennis Reinhardt (Bank of England)

14:50 The impact of macroprudential housing finance tools in Canada: 2005-2010 – Tom Roberts (Bank of Canada)

15:40 Coffee

16:00 Objective-setting and communication of macroprudential policies – Jochen Schanz (Bank for International Settlements)

16:50 Closing remarks – Governor Philip R. Lane (Central Bank of Ireland)

The workshop is hosted by the Central Bank of Ireland as part of a series of annual events organized by the European Central Banking Network (ECBN) in cooperation with CEPR.

To register for the event or for any queries, please email fsdadmin@centralbank.ie by Friday 3rd February 2017.

Venue: The Institute of Banking, Citi Building, IFSC, 1 North Wall Quay, Dublin 1, Ireland – https://goo.gl/maps/aLj85WQdjWu.

Launch of World Wealth and Income Database

Readers might be interested in the new World Wealth and Income Database, which was just launched at the American Economic Association (AEA) annual meeting in Chicago.

It is coordinated by a small core team located at the World Inequality Lab at the Paris School of Economics.

The presentation slides from the AEA are available here and the corresponding explanatory paper is visible here.

The database aims to offer open access to the most extensive available database on the historical evolution of the global distribution of income and wealth, both within and between countries.

From an Irish perspective, what’s most notable is the paucity of data on the distribution of income and wealth, something that Patrick Honohon commented upon as governor of the central bank in 2014.

However, there does seem to be updated data (most likely from Brian Nolan), on the top 1% income share from 1938-2009.

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Celtic Phoenix or Leprechaun Economics?

Readers might be interested in this UCD Geary working paper, which was featured in the Sunday Business Post yesterday. The title of the paper is “Celtic Phoenix or Leprechaun Economics: the Political Economy of an FDI-led Growth Model in Europe”.

Our core argument is that Ireland’s post-crisis economic recovery was driven by foreign direct investment (FDI) from Silicon Valley, and whilst this growth model was made possible by Ireland’s low corporate tax rates, it was also a result of inward migration, with these firms using Ireland to directly access the European labour market.

We also demonstrate that Irish fiscal and wage policies have not redistributed gains from the FDI recovery to the broader population. As a result, the economic recovery has been most actively felt by those in the FDI sectors, including foreign-national workers from the EU and beyond.

We suggest that this experience indicates that Ireland’s FDI-led growth model has created clear winners and losers. The FDI growth regime been made possible by inward migration and European integration, but given the unequal distribution of the economic benefits that this generates, it is unlikely to be politically, or electorally, sustainable.

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2017 WINIR Conference – Call For Papers

The 2017 World Interdisciplinary Network for Institutional Research Conference will be held from Thursday 14th to Saturday 16th of September 2017 in Utrecht University, Netherlands.

The conference welcomes contributions from any academic discipline that address the challenges and dynamics of the economic, political, legal and social institutions of our time. Submissions on any other aspect of institutional research are also welcome.

Organisers are requesting abstract submissions (300 words max.). All submission must be about institutions, organisations and/or institutional thought.

Keynotes lectures, representing three academic disciplines, will be given by Johanna Mair (Hertie School of Governance), James Robinson (University of Chicago) and Juliet Schor (Boston College).

The conference will also feature a round table on “ICT, Open Societies and New Institutions” with José van Dijck (Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences), Haroon Sheikh (Dasym Investment Strategies) and Fredrik Söderqvist (Unionen), and will be preceded by a PhD workshop.

The abstract submission deadline is Monday 13th of March 2017. More information can be found here.

Reminder: Irish Economic Association Annual Conference 2017 call for papers

The 31st Annual Irish Economic Association Conference will be held in the Institute of Banking in Dublin on Thursday May 4th and Friday May 5th, 2017.

Frank Walsh from the school of economics UCD is the local organiser

Conference email: ieaconference2017@gmail.com

The ESR guest lecture will be given by Professor Deirdre McCloskey (University of Illinois at Chicago) and the Edgeworth Lecture by Professor John Muellbauer (University of Oxford).

The Association invites submissions of papers to be considered for the conference programme. Papers may be on any area in Economics, Finance or Econometrics.

The deadline for submitted articles is the 7th of February 2017 and submissions can be made through https://iea2017.exordo.com

Please circulate the call for papers amongst your colleagues especially younger researchers who may not be on the mailing list.

http://www.iea.ie/

Trade Surpluses and German Economic Nationalism

Sone readers might be interested in this excellent blog post by Thomas Piketty on the alleged asymmetry between Germany and France.

The core takeaway is that both countries have similar levels of productivity – measured in terms of GDP per hour worked.

The difference between Germany and France is that they use their high-levels of productivity in very different ways. France consumes and invests what it produces. Germany sells it abroad.

The excessive and persistent trade surpluses in Germany (outside small oil producing states and tax havens) “are unprecedented in economic history”. Europe has a German problem.

Labour productivity (GDP per hour worked) 1970-2015

Domestic consumption and investment in % of GDP (1970-2015)