Further Reductions in IMF Rate Are Likely
This post was written by Karl Whelan
A reader has written to me about an important item missing from my briefing paper on the IMF-EU loans. I noted in the report that the amount of money that Ireland can borrow at cheap rates is three times our IMF quota and that this quota was about to increase. However, I did not mention that a much larger increase in Ireland’s quota is likely to occur over the next year or so.
On November 5th, the IMF concluded its 14th General Review of Quotas with the Executive Board recommending that the Fund’s Board of Governors adopt the proposed quotas. The proposals include a doubling of the total amount of quotas and review of each county’s share of the total. Ireland’s share is proposed to increase further from 0.528% to 0.724%). This means that Ireland’s IMF quota will increase to around SDR 3.45 billion, which at current exchange rates would translate to a quota for almost €4 billion.
If implemented, these proposals would allow Ireland to borrow almost €12 billion at IMF’s low interest rate (currently 1.38%) with the remaining €10.5 billion at the higher rate (3.38% for the first three years, 4.38% thereafter). Over a seven and a half year period, this would translate into a loan that had an average margin over the variable SDR base rate of 228 basis points, down from the 326 basis point margin associated with the IMF lending terms that prevailed at the time the bailout deal was increased.
To come into effect, the proposals must be approved by 85% of the IMF’s voting share and 113 member countries. It’s unclear how long this will take but it may take a year or so.
I think this adjustment of the IMF lending terms is an important point to keep in mind when considering the lending terms on the EU loans. The EU lending authorities have been keen to point out that, once compared in the appropriate fashion, their loans can be viewed as having equivalent cost to the loan that the IMF offered the Irish government in November. This is true. However, when compared against the terms that the IMF is going to offer Ireland in the near future, the European loans are a good deal more expensive.