Jamie Smyth writes on this topic in the FT here.
Month: December 2011
This report is available here.
We have reached the long-awaited “patent cliff”. Lipitor, which Pfizer produces in Ireland, has just gone off patent and others are set to follow shortly. Big Pharma’s new product pipelines are sparse. Bloomberg reported on this a few weeks ago here.
I don’t think Chris Van Egeraat is quite as pessimistic as he appears to be in the article, and he tells me that the figures quoted come from Bloomberg’s database rather than from him.
Furthermore, Big Pharma is fighting back. And we know that mergers and acquisitions in the sector have increased in recent years, against trend, as the pharma companies diversify into biotech, from which the new innovations are likely to emerge. (See the section on pharmaceuticals, pps. 16-17, here).
But worrying all the same!
As chairman of the Limerick Branch of the McCarthy fan club, I hereby point you towards yesterday’s Sindo column where The Colm describes a new strategy for negotiating with our overlords cousins in the EU.
From the column:
The reported ECB attitude on Irish debt relief should come as no surprise to anyone. Taking one for the team will not go unpunished in the new European order.
Here’s an alternative negotiating strategy. The key premise is that debt relief cannot be confined to Greece, a centerpiece of the most recent deal in Brussels. This is, of course, a matter of judgement, but it is the judgement of the bond market, the one that matters in the end. The debt relief currently contemplated for Greece is inadequate, so there will be more. Debt relief will be required also for Portugal. If Ireland is to repay its core sovereign debt, there needs to be a deal on sharing the bank-rescue costs. Otherwise, Ireland will either join Greece and Portugal in sovereign default or will be reliant on official lenders indefinitely.
It follows that the number of European sovereign defaults can, with luck, be confined to two, but only with a deal on sharing some of the Irish bank-rescue costs with those who insisted that they be incurred.
Three questions immediately present themselves:
- Is this strategy realistic? Assuming it is, then:
- Assuming we adopt the strategy, how will our EU cousins react?
- Will the outcome in terms of debt sustainability be better or worse under the new strategy if it is successfully carried out?
The fourth in the series of sessions on the Irish economy will take place on January 27th. The venue is the Radisson Blu Royal Hotel Dublin City Center. It will take place between 9.30am and 5pm. Co-organisers are Liam Delaney, Colm Harmon and Stephen Kinsella. RSVPs to Emma.Barron@ucd.ie A full programme will be posted here shortly. There will be approximately 20 talks on a range of issues relevant to the current economic situation.