Call for papers – conference on bank resolution mechanisms, Spring 2013

Call for Papers

Bank Resolution Mechanisms

A joint academic-practitioner conference with the theme Bank Resolution Mechanisms wil be held in Dublin, Ireland on Thursday May 23rd, 2013, organized by the Financial Mathematics and Computation Cluster (FMCC) at University College, Dublin and the Department of Economics, Finance & Accounting at National University of Ireland Maynooth. Continue reading “Call for papers – conference on bank resolution mechanisms, Spring 2013”

Turnover and Exports in Irish Pharma – guest post from Chris Van Egeraat

Last week The Irish Times published their annual TOP 1000 Companies list. The list includes figures on, amongst others, turnover. A quick inspection of the list and CSO export data would suggest that exports of Irish pharmaceutical companies account for 248% of turnover!

The turnover figure I took from the TOP 100 list. I added Pfizer, which was missing from the hard copy but included in the on-line version. I excluded companies in Northern Ireland. I also excluded pharmacy groups and national distribution/sales companies on the basis that most of these will export little. I also excluded a small number of companies that were erroneously listed as pharmaceuticals. The turnover of the resulting list of firms adds up to €20.9bn.

CSO export figures suggest that in 2011, Ireland’s pharmaceutical exports stood at €51.8bn [pharmaceutical sector is here defined as to include organic chemicals (= mainly active ingredients), pharmaceutical preparations and essential oils].

I can’t figure out the problem. The issue cannot be explained by adding the turnover of the sub-1000 companies. The smallest Top 1000 company has a turnover of €6m. You would need a lot of small pharmaceutical companies to cover the difference.

I thought the difference could be explained by the fact that some pharmaceutical companies (e.g. Pfizer) operate separate export companies. But, the (separate) table with top financial enterprises includes no pharmaceutical companies. Still, could it be that exports of these export units are included in the Irish pharmaceutical export figures but not in the turnover of the Irish operations?

I appreciate that the Irish Times TOP 1000 list may not be perfect (Dell Ireland is reported to employ 796 Irish employees while the Dublin unit alone employs 1000 plus!) Still, the difference between the two figures seems too big to be explained away by recording errors. Any suggestions welcome

Below I include a selection of the methodological notes included on page 27:
• Where companies filed consolidated accounts, the group turnover was taken.
• The Irish subsidiaries of multinational or overseas companies are included if they are significant employers. If no financial information is available for the Irish operations, then turnover is estimated by The Irish Times on the basis of revenue per employee as per publicly available figures
• If a multinational has several subsidiaries in Ireland we have where possible treated them as one entity grouped under the main Irish company. In some circumstances this was not possible and they appear separately

Is the housing crash over?

Journalists are going to have a field day with the latest residential property data from the CSO. Prices in Dublin seem to have risen slightly. Overall, house prices in Dublin are 55% lower than at their peak in early 2007. See the graph below.

CSO.ie

From the report:

In the year to May, residential property prices at a national level, fell by 15.3%. This compares with an annual rate of decline of 16.4% in April and a decline of 12.2% recorded in the twelve months to May 2011.

Residential property prices grew by 0.2% in the month of May. This compares with a decline of 1.1% recorded in April and a decline of 1.2% recorded in May of last year.

It’s important to have more data before before every auctioneer/journalist/commentator in the country starts calling the bottom of the housing market. We’re only talking about a few months of semi-positive growth. I don’t want to take away from the data, but interpreting these data points as proof the worst is over is premature, given the scale of the year on year change (about a 15% drop).

Depfa Bank collapse and the Irish taxpayer

There seems to be almost unanimous agreement within the Irish media that had the IFSC-based Depfa Bank not been bought by another German bank just before its collapse at the beginning of the financial crisis, the bill would have landed on the Irish taxpayer. Dan O’Brien repeats this view in an article in the Irish Times on Saturday.

I am not sure that the issue is as clearcut as is supposed. Willem Buiter (pages 9-11) suggests that we are in uncharted territory in these matters.

IMF Eurozone Concluding Mission Statement

You can find it here. They usefully distinguish between short run and long run responses to the crisis, and correctly stress the need to maintain aggregate demand in the short run.

As for the long run reforms: if the euro survives, there will have to be “a broad-based dialogue about what a fuller fiscal union would imply for the sovereignty of member states and the accountability of the center,” and we may as well start thinking about these issues in Ireland now.