Year: 2012

Mrs Merkel gives Ireland the perfect reason to postpone the referendum

In this interview, Mrs Merkel gives the forthcoming Irish referendum as a reason why the treaty should not be renegotiated.

Almost no-one in Ireland thinks this treaty is a good one, and that includes the people who believe that we have no realistic option but to ratify it. Indeed, almost no-one outside Germany seems to want it, including the governments who signed it. It follows that if M Hollande were to lead a push to have it renegotiated, we should support that effort. If our May referendum is an obstacle in the way of achieving that goal, we should postpone it.

Spain

The news that Spanish unemployment is now at 24.4% deserves a thread. It is the latest reminder of the complete and utter failure of the Eurozone’s absurd strategy of generalized, undifferentiated austerity for all, simultaneously. What is so frustrating is that it was obvious in 2010 that this would be the result, which is why some of us objected at the time to what was happening: you didn’t have to be a genius to figure it out. I don’t see any way that the Eurozone will survive in its current form unless the macroeconomic policy mix changes, and I’m not sure it will change, even if M Hollande gets elected.

Fiscal Responsibility Bill

The government has released the design of the FRB.

Information note here.

General Scheme of Fiscal Responsibility Bill

Publication of the General Scheme of a Bill to be called the Fiscal Responsibility Bill 2012

Current Account Imbalances in Europe; IEA Meetings

The revised version of my paper (joint with Barbara Pels) on current account imbalances in Europe (focusing on the pre-crisis period) is available here.

The current account was also the topic for the keynote Edgeworth Lecture delivered by Maury Obstfeld last evening at the Irish Economics Association annual meeting – his paper is here.

Today’s keynote ESR/DEW Lecture will be given by John Van Reenan on “Horrible Bosses? The New Economics of Management”.  He also has a VOX column today “Fiscal Consolidation: Too Much of a Good Thing?“

Speech by Patrick Honohan to the IEA

The address given this evening by the Governor of the Central Bank, Professor Patrick Honohan can be read here.