Jagdip, as ever, has the story, check it out here. Anyone know who these investors are or might be?
Year: 2012
The Banque de France’s Financial Stability Review has a set of essays on this topic from a range of experts – here.
Details here. The deficit is now below 10%, which should if I’m right be the talking point on official press releases and the news tonight and such. The target in the budget (here, page 18) was 10.1%. The Budget target for debt in 2011 was and from the footnotes (remember Tom Waits’ quote about the small print):
Ireland: Eurostat is expressing a specific reservation on the data reported by Ireland, due to the fact that the restructuring plans of Allied Irish Banks and Irish Life & Permanent are not yet finalised. These restructuring plans have been used by the Irish statistical authorities to calculate in the reported figures a (deficit increasing) capital transfer element of 3.7% GDP arising from the July 2011 government injections into the two banks. Eurostat awaits the finalisation of the restructuring plans, including approval by the EU competition authorities, so that the amount of the capital transfer element can be confirmed.
Eurostat is also expressing a specific reservation on the data reported by Ireland, due to the statistical classification of National Asset Management Agency Investment Limited (NAMA-IL), which is currently classified outside the general government. Owing to the nationalisation of one of its previously private beneficial owners, whose interest is currently under a process of sale, NAMA-IL has been in majority public ownership since July 2011. Eurostat’s decision of 15 July 2009 on public interventions during the financial crisis specifies that majority private ownership is necessary for such an entity to be classified outside the General Government sector.
Another reservation might be with respect to nominal GNP, where the debt ratio now stands at roughly 131% (169/129).
I had an op-ed in yesterday’s Business Post, together with a raft of other pieces. The points raised should come as no surprise to those who read Morgenroth’s and my earlier blogs. Conor Pope independently confirms our numbers. Summary:
- The government plan for water meters is exceedingly expensive.
- Free water allowances are a bad idea, particularly if the allowance is per household (as is likely) rather than per person.
- Is Bord Gais up for this? Can the Commission for Energy Regulation cope?
The Sindo also wrote about Irish Water, which highlights another issue: Bord Gais is not fully state-owned. Employees own a fair chunk too. An uncompensated transfer of water assets from the counties to Irish Water would be a windfall for Bord Gais employees, a capital gain that will be taxable at some point in the future. It would be better if Irish Water would pay a fair price for the assets, funded by newly issued equity. The county councils would then be part-owner of Bord Gais, which would further complicate the planned privatization of part of the company.
Olivier Blanchard is quoted in the press today:
“When there was no fiscal treaty nor budgetary and budgetary discipline instruments, the Germans had good reason to reject bearing the brunt of irresponsible policies by other states,” Olivier Blanchard told the Monday edition of Financial Times Deutschland.
“But now we have a fiscal treaty. The Germans should accept that the eurozone is going by way of eurobonds,” he added.