730 days to go, and questions for us all. Worth putting up a thread on this today.
A colleague has pointed out this Economist piece on gambling to me. Check out the figures on average annual gambling losses per resident adult, and where Ireland comes in the list: am I the only one who thinks these numbers are enormous? Or that we should perhaps be worried about them — especially the very large online component?
(This also gives me an excuse to complain about the FAI’s League of Ireland streaming deal with an online gambling company.)
I have been working for a number of years on interwar trade policy, trying to see if using more fine-grained data will alter the consensus view that 1930s protectionism didn’t matter much for trade flows, in the context of everything else that was going on at the time. It is time-consuming work, but we are beginning to produce some results now, the first of which are previewed here. And I suppose that one upside of the time it has taken us to put the dataset together is that, in the meantime, Brexit intervened, which will hopefully increase interest in quantitative studies of trade policy!
The 2017 Cheltenham Festival ended last Friday and proved to be a remarkable four days for horse racing in this country. Irish trained horses won 19 of the 28 races, beating last year’s previous best of 15. For the second year running there were more Irish trained winners than English, which is all the more remarkable given that “15 Irish winners or more” could be backed at odds of 4/1 as late as Tuesday morning. Irish trained horses won 3 or the top 4 prizes, and Ireland also dominated the leading trainer and jockey tables.
Much of this success can probably be put down to state investment in the sport. From 2008 to 2017 Revised Estimates of Public Expenditure show that the Horse and Greyhound Racing Fund was allocated just under €650 million through the Department of Arts, Sports and Tourism and more recently the Department of Agriculture, Food and the Marine. Of this, Horse Racing Ireland (HRI) received just over €500 million.
While national hunt racing is just one part of the sport, the majority of this funding is used to subsidise prize money at the 26 race courses on the island of Ireland. HRI support equates to roughly two-thirds of the prize fund, with owners, sponsors, funding from Northern Ireland and the European Breeders Fund contributing the remainder. The HRI 2016 Factbook discusses the recent improvement in most indicators in the sport, with only the trend in on-course bookmaker numbers a current cause for concern. The reason for this is largely explained by technological innovations and the resulting rise in online gambling.
The funding of horse racing can be compared to all other sports. Sport Ireland (formerly the Irish Sports Council) is partly responsible for these (their website lists more than 60 sports) and received just over €550 million for the ten-year period from 2008 to 2017. This includes payments to the National Sports Campus from 2012. This equates to a 94 cent investment in Horse Racing Ireland (administering a single sport), for every €1 investment in Sport Ireland, which covers everything from angling to wresting.
While the 2017 Revised Estimates indicate the Horse and Greyhound Racing Fund will surpass its pre-crash allocation this year, Sport Ireland will experience a drop in funding year-on-year. If the country wishes to replicate the remarkable performance of Irish national hunt racing in other sports, further investment in Sport Ireland should be priority.
Continued success in the Cotswold can be expected in the years ahead.
The Central Bank and the European Investment Bank will jointly host a conference on “Investment and Investment Finance: Funding Growth and Recovery in Europe” on the morning of April 10th in the Bank’s new premises, North Wall Quay.
The following speakers are confirmed, and a full programme will be available on the Bank’s website in the coming days:
Further information is available here.
Friday, 12 May 2017
The fifth annual NERI Labour Market Conference will be held on Friday 12th May in association with Maynooth University’s Department of Applied Social Studies, the Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting and the Department of Sociology. The conference will run from 10:00am-16.00pm and will include research papers on various aspects of the Irish labour market and Irish labour market policy.
The NERI Labour Market Conference is intended to provide a forum for the presentation of research papers on labour market issues (North and South) and is held in May each year. Presentations from researchers, academics, and labour market practitioners are invited for this forthcoming conference. Those interested should submit a title and brief abstract (max 400 words) to email@example.com
Possible topics include but are not limited to:
• Employment and Unemployment
• Precariousness and Low Pay
• Earnings and Labour Costs
• Productivity and Human Capital
• Labour Market Participation, Demographics and Labour Supply
• Labour Market Institutions (Minimum wages and collective bargaining)
• Labour Market Transitions, Migration, Age and Gender
• Pensions and Pensions Policy
The conference is open to all who are interested and is free to attend. However, you must register your intention to attend the conference by contacting firstname.lastname@example.org
31 March 2017
5 May 2017
Notification of Acceptance:
14 April 2017
12 May 2017
The CSO is recruiting for permanent Statistician posts, details below:
T. K. Whitaker has been much eulogised over recent times, and rightly so. But, as he recognised himself in later life, he had not been infallible (is anyone, ever?) and others whom he opposed at the time deserved credit for their part in the outward re-orientation of the economy in the 1950s and 1960s. In an article just published in the Dublin Review of Books, I offer an assessment of his significance over the period.
There are at least three reasons why I think an “off the cliff” Brexit is the most likely outcome.
First, and most importantly, an “off the cliff” Brexit is what the hard Brexiteers want: a break with the EU that is as clean and as unambiguous as possible. And they are currently driving the show. Arguments about economic interest have no impact on this group: for them, it is all about sovereignty, as they see it.
Second, the key Brexit ministers are clearly not on top of their brief. They assure us that jumping off the cliff will be fine, and then it emerges that they haven’t studied what its consequences would be: it is surreal stuff. Check out this clip of Brexit minister Davis, if you haven’t already, and remember: this is the man tasked with negotiating Brexit.
Third, while UK civil servants are very competent, there are only so many of them. If all off the shelf transitional arrangements are ruled out on theological grounds (having to do for example with the ECJ) then it is hard to see how bespoke arrangements can be sorted out within two years, even if ministers understand what needs to be done, and even if they want to do it.
Hopefully I will be proved wrong, but we have to assume the worst and prepare for it. That means not putting all our intellectual, political and administrative energy into fighting amongst ourselves as to what the best deal should be: there may not be one at all, simply because the UK doesn’t want one or isn’t capable of delivering it. It means thinking about the people who will be hurt — people working in small businesses exporting to the UK, primarily, but also people living in border regions — and about how the State and the EU can help them to adjust.* It means targeting every British food processing firm that may find itself at a competitive disadvantage in the EU post-2019 and seeing if they can be induced to invest in Ireland (outside Dublin, which is where we will need the jobs). It means becoming more granular: listening more to the industries involved, and solving specific problems one at a time. It means the rest of us abandoning the “I’m alright Jack” mentality that often pervades Irish discourse, and all of us realising that we really are in this together.
*And, even though I guess it is special pleading, spare a thought for cross-border workers. The pre-1973 CTA won’t be enough, I imagine, to replicate current arrangement.
Update: Wolfgang Münchau takes the polar opposite view, here. Hopefully he is correct!
The Financial Stability Division currently has two openings for applied economists.
The Fiscal Council are seeking to recruit a Research Assistant. The position is on an initial two-year basis with full details available here. The closing date for applications is Friday 21st April. The start date is negotiable, particularly for candidates completing studies.
This is a very helpful little document that readers worried about border formalities may find helpful.
The Miriam Hederman O’Brien Prize is awarded by the Foundation for Fiscal Studies (http://www.fiscal.ie). The prize was launched in 2013 and you now have an opportunity to nominate candidates for the 2017 prize.
The purpose of the prize is to recognise outstanding contributors to matters relating to fiscal, economic and social policy. The winner will be awarded a prize of €1,000 together with a commemorative Gold Medal.
Nominations are invited for work completed during 2016 that has added to the public knowledge or understanding in areas such as taxation, public expenditure and other related fiscal policy topics.
Details of the prize, entry criteria and submission details are contained here. You can nominate your own work or work by others.
The closing date for nominations is 30 April 2017.
This conference may be of interest:
Europe’s Changing Workplaces
April 3rd 2017
National University of Ireland Maynooth
New Deals in the New Economy Project
Political Economy and Work Research Cluster
MUSSI and the Department of Sociology
Behind the deep economic troubles and political turmoil of the current era is a profound uncertainty about working life and employment – while some experience precarity and marginalisation, others work for significant rewards but at the cost of intense and intrusive work commitments. For almost all, ‘flexibility’ is an everyday reality at work – although flexibility can take many forms, for better and for worse.
- What are the patterns of work in Europe today?
- Where is work changing, and how?
- Are there the seeds of a new ‘European model’ of work and employment?
- What are its contradictions, challenges, conditions and prospects?
Admission is free but Registration is required. To view detailed programme and to register please go to:
Cork University Business School and the Department of Economics
are pleased to invite you to the
First Annual Longfield Lecture in Economics:
Philippe Legrain, Senior Research Fellow, London School of Economics
“Immigrants: Your country needs them”
Wednesday 22nd March 2017 at 5pm
Venue: Boole 3, UCC
All are welcome
Author’s Bio: Philippe Legrain is Senior Research Fellow at the London School of Economics. He was formerly special adviser to the Director-General of the World Trade Organisation, independent economic adviser to the President of the European Commission, and head of the team that provided him with strategic policy advice. He is the author of European Spring: Why Our Economies and Politics are in a Mess – and How to Put Them Right, Aftershock: Reshaping the World Economy After the Crisis, Immigrants: Your Country Needs Them, and Open World: The Truth about Globalisation. He is a frequent media commentator and contributor. You can get more information about Philippe at http://www.philippelegrain.com/
The Longfield Lectures: The purpose of the annual lecture series is to invite eminent speakers to address contemporary economic issues for a general audience, to contribute positively to public discourse. This is an important mission for us as an institution and as academics, and all the more with current global and local challenges. The lecture is open to all. It is organised in association with the Economics Society.
The lecture series is named after one of Cork’s foremost economist, Samuel Mountiford Longfield (1802 -1884), who was born in Desert Serges, near Enniskeane, in West Cork. He was appointed the first Whately Professor of Political Economy at Trinity College Dublin in 1832. According to his entry in Encyclopaedia Britannica he “rivalled [David] Ricardo’s influence, especially Ricardo’s notion that value is determined by the labour required to provide a good or service”. Joseph Schumpeter claimed that Longfield provided “a reasonably complete and reasonably correct theory of distribution based upon the marginal productivity principle, not only the marginal cost principle”, which means Longfield was an early forerunner of marginalism.
In addition, Longfield challenged the Malthusian idea that wages would remain stuck at a subsistence level and, optimistic about future economic growth, he presciently argued that innovation in agriculture would offset the effects of increased population. Longfield was actively engaged in policy advice and argued for the introduction of a Poor Law in Ireland that would be based along the lines of the 1834 English Poor Law.
We are very happy to highlight the contribution of this Cork-born economist and celebrate his achievements in his native place.
More information on Longfield is available at http://www.mruniversity.com/courses/great-economists-classical-economics-and-its-forerunners/mountifort-longfield,https://www.tcd.ie/Secretary/FellowsScholars/discourses/discourses/1982_A.A.%20Tait%20on%20M.%20Longfield.pdf,https://www.britannica.com/biography/Mountifort-Longfield, and https://www.jstor.org/stable/40607755?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents.
Writing about the shortcomings in the Gardaí’s treatment of whistleblowers, yesterday’s Irish edition of The Times commented:
The problem with the organisation as it is currently configured is that all senior posts are filled by members who have spent their entire careers in the force. Under that system, there is very little opportunity for critical self-examination. It is about time this changed.
In fact, this same ‘closedness’ is widespread throughout the Irish public sector – in the civil service, the semi-states, the regulatory agencies and so forth. While these bodies may not be quite as sealed as the Gardaí are, true outsiders are rarely found.
One result is what Dan O’Brien calls the ‘decent skin’ problem – excess sympathy for under-performers. A given manager/CEO is acknowledged to do their job poorly, but as they are a decent skin on a human level, there is reluctance to judge them too harshly.
A second result is ‘capture’, in its many manifestations. Concerning the regulatory aspect, recruiting a proportion of high-quality foreign staff is a substantial barrier to capture generally as well as, in my experience at least, adding to what The Times called a culture of ‘critical self-examination’ in an agency. Even if the persons concerned struggle to pronounce some phrases (e.g. Aer Rianta, An Bórd Pleanála).
A tiny society, where practically everyone is someone’s cousin, on a tiny island, where practically everyone is someone’s neighbour, is at risk of a culture where the indigenous flinch from holding failures to account.
One way to compensate for the costs of smallness, capable of reasonably rapid application, would be to aim to have a minimum proportion of senior managers in key organisations recruited from abroad. Outside the central bank it is hard to think of examples where this has happened.