More Human Economics

I wrote previously on the potential relevance of behavioural economics to policy. The programme for the AEA conference this year reveals the extent to which academic economics is attempting to augment traditional models with insights from psychology. Recent popular books such as Nudge by Thaler and Sunstein, Animal Spirits by Shiller and Akerlof and Basic Instincts by the ESRI’s Peter Lunn have served to bring these ideas into the public sphere. Another upcoming book by Akerlof and Kranton attempts to bring the literature they have developed on Economics and Identity more squarely into economic debate (see George Akerlof’s IDEAS page for many of the papers the book is based on). The drive to make economics a more human discipline is discussed briefly here as a positive development by Angus Deaton. Deaton primarily addresses the issue of cognitive biases and there is a growing consensus that information processing limitations should be worked into economic models. However, the challenges posed by integrating constructs from areas such as neuroscience and identity theory are theoretically more fundamental and practically more difficult as they involve languages that most economists simply have never used or considered relevant to their domain. My point in posting this brief post is to encourage people interested in how economics relates to policy to begin to consider these academic influences and what they may imply in Ireland. The economic response to the current recession in Ireland relies in no way at all on any of these new literatures and our approach to training economists and finance professionals has largely remained unaltered by them. A good debate about how seriously we should take these literatures for policy is timely.

Post-Budget Analysis from Minister for Hardship

Following a recommendation from some colleagues who lived through the last fiscal crisis, I went looking for this. Thankfully, someone has placed a classic address from the Minister on Youtube.

link here

Receipts and Expenditure Estimates 2010

Have been released by the Department of Finance. The toll of added social welfare and debt payments showing clearly through. I will let the comments decide whether the receipt estimates are realistic.

link here

Labour Budget Submission

The Labour Submission is here

Key points:

Spending
700 million jobs fund for employment subsidies and placement schemes
1.3 billion reduction in pay budget
1.3 billion reduction in capital spending through lower tender prices
900 million reduction in non-pay spending (list given at end of document)
Reinstate Christmas Social Welfare Payment (240 million)

Tax
Third rate of income tax (48 per cent kicking in at 100k for single and 200k for couple)
Abolition of a number of tax expenditures
Carbon Tax

TASC Pre-Budget Submission

TASC argue for savings to be made (approx 5 billion) from removing various tax breaks. The document contains a useful list of the large number of tax expenditures in the Irish system, taken from the Commission on Taxation report. They argue that reducing many of these breaks would be an equitable way of raising finance.

link here