The readership may be interested in this new report.
Author: Philip Lane
My briefing note for today’s meeting of the Oireachtas Sub-Committee on the Intergovernmental Treaty is here.
The CSO released its Q4 2011 data on Ireland’ international balance sheet last week. Putting together the full-year data for 2011, Ireland’s net external position fell by 11.3 percent of GDP in spite of the small current account surplus.
In order to fully understand the sources of this measured decline, it would to good to know more about the relative contributions of valuation changes and data revisions to the 6.8 percent of GDP “stock-flow adjustment” component of the net decline and also possible explanations for the 4.5 percent of GDP “net errors and omissions” that drive a large wedge between the small current account surplus and large measured net capital inflows. (Unrecorded capital flight must be part of the explanation, which would suggest that the decline in the overall net position is overstated.)
The European Commission has published its new set of policy options here. There is now a four-week consultation period with key stakeholders.
I agree with Michael O’Sullivan (op-ed in today’s FT available here) that the Fiscal Compact should be debated in the context of a wider European reform agenda and that the Ireland should positively engage in the wider reform process. My view is that the implementation of the Fiscal Compact raises the probability that other reforms will be delivered; his ultimate position on the referendum vote was not obvious from his article.
(The FT also carries an interesting analysis article on the lessons from Iceland here.)