Category: Economics

The ESRI forecast record

Post author By Richard Tol
Post date June 26, 2010

The ESRI macro-economic forecast record has attracted some attention this week.

The Indo is unfair to Frances Ruane. The ESRI has long tried and failed to fill the gap in its expertise in finance. In 2006 and 2007, it was nigh impossible to hire an economist. Part of the problem was/is that the data on the financial sector were/are so murky.

The Irish Times is fair in its critique.

For the record, the ESRI did predict the end of the housing boom (as did most others because it was fairly obvious) but we did not foresee that this would coincide with a major international crisis in finance (again, we were not alone).

Categories In Economics
43 Comments on The ESRI forecast record

As Science Evolves, How Can Science Policy?

Post author By Philip Lane
Post date May 24, 2010

Benjamin Jones of Northwestern University has written an interesting article on how the changes in the nature of scientific research pose challenges for science policy. You can read it here.

Summary:

Getting science policy right is a core objective of government that bears on scientific advance, economic growth, health, and longevity. Yet the process of science is changing. As science advances and knowledge accumulates, ensuing generations of innovators spend longer in training and become more narrowly expert, shifting key innovations (i) later in the life cycle and (ii) from solo researchers toward teams. This paper summarizes the evidence that science has evolved – and continues to evolve – on both dimensions. The paper then considers science policy. The ongoing shift away from younger scholars and toward teamwork raises serious policy challenges. Central issues involve (a) maintaining incentives for entry into scientific careers as the training phase extends, (b) ensuring effective evaluation of ideas (including decisions on patent rights and research grants) as evaluator expertise narrows, and (c) providing appropriate effort incentives as scientists increasingly work in teams. Institutions such as government grant agencies, the patent office, the science education system, and the Nobel Prize come under a unified focus in this paper. In all cases, the question is how these institutions can change. As science evolves, science policy may become increasingly misaligned with science itself – unless science policy evolves in tandem.

Categories In Economic Performance, Economics
Tags science policy
23 Comments on As Science Evolves, How Can Science Policy?

INFINITI 2010 Conference at TCD: International Credit and Finance Markets: After the Storm?

Post author By Philip Lane
Post date May 19, 2010

The largest finance conference in Ireland returns for its eight year; The INFINITI Conference on International Finance will be held at TCD from 14th-15th June.

In addition to the keynote and special sessions, there are over 166 papers being presented. Full details including registration are available here.

Highlights of the conference include

Opening address by Professor Patrick Honohan, Governor of the Central Bank of Ireland (Monday 14 June)
Roundtable on Property and Real Estate Investment, Monday 14 June, afternoon with lead speaker Professor Simon Stevenson, Director of Center for Real Estate Studies, City University Business School, London, and panel members Derek Brawn, Constantin Gurdgiev, and Peter Matthews.

Roundtable on Investment in a Post Crisis World, Tuesday 15 June, Afternoon. Sponsored by the CFA Institute Ireland, this roundtable features: “An Update on Latest Trends in Fund Offerings” by David Hammond, CFA, Bridge Consulting, “Major Challenges in Allocations to Irish and Emerging Markets’ Equities, Liquidity Risk and Product Innovation: The Perspective of a Pension Fund Trust” by Stephanie Condra, CFA, Invesco Pension Consultants, “An Update on Current Issues in the EU Government Bond Market” by Catherine McLaughlin, CFA, Irish Life and “Role of the CFA Institute and CFA Ireland in the Changing World” by Oliver McClure, CFA
Roundtable on The Structure of the Emerging Bond Market, organized by the OECD Development Centre in collaboration with the Pontifical Catholic University of Argentina Graduate Business School. It will bring together three recent papers on the micro-structure and pricing of emerging bond markets.

166 research papers on a vast array of international financial topics. Highlights include