New from Department of Finance

Honohan: Adverse selection and moral hazard in forecasting and limiting arrears and loan losses on mortgages

here.

Two Views on Europe

A joint WSJ op-ed by a group of European officials here.

An FT op-ed by Tony Barber here.

Jobs without Growth?

The concept of a “jobless recovery” is well understood, by which employment growth lags output growth. Today’s ESRI QEC argues that the opposite pattern is currently evident in the Irish data, highlighting the adverse impact of the patent cliff on measured GDP and arguing that the underlying employment data tells a more positive story. See, in particular, this note by John Fitzgerald.

Yesterday’s presentation by the Department of Finance also provides a lot of interesting detail on the macro outlook – here.

Revisiting Sovereign Bankruptcy

Philip’s posting last week of the new report from the Committee on International Economic Policy and Reform, Revisiting Sovereign Bankruptcy, attracted little comment.   This is a pity as it is an impressive piece of work – clear and well argued.   The focus of the report:

This year’s CIEPR report argues that both the nature and our understanding of sovereign debt problems have changed in ways that create a much stronger case for an orderly sovereign bankruptcy regime today than ten years ago. 

Some belated and slightly wonkish comments after the break.