Drawing conclusions from the announcement of OMT

Following the influential work of Paul De Grauwe and Yuemei Ji, the idea that bond yield crises in the eurozone reflect liquidity (i.e. multiple equilibia) rather solvency has taken hold.   (See, for example, Paul Krugman linking to a post by Joe Weisenthal.)  The main evidence is the synchronised fall in yields when the ECB strengthened the LOLR regime with the annoucement of Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT), and also (indirectly) with the LTRO programme.   This leads to the view that the tough fiscal adjustment programmes are not required for countries to regain creditworthiness.   Here is Joe Weisenthal’s conclusion:

So we can trace the two peaks of Eurozone debt stress directly to two times the ECB intervened. Austerity has had nothing to do with the improvement in borrowing costs.

But is this account too simple?   In one sense I would possibly go even further than De Grauwe and Li: in the context of monetary union, vulnerable countries will not be able to avoid the bad equilibrium without a credible LOLR.   However, I also think it is important to recognise that what is fitfully emerging is a conditional LOLR.    Countries will only get support if they are undergoing required adjustments (OMT description here).   The announcement of OMT would then not help a country if investors believed it would not take the actions that would make it eligible.   The LOLR and the adjustments are then both necessary to prevent or reverse the slide to a bad equilibrium.   

Of course, it could still be argued that the explicit or implicit conditionality is inappropriately demanding (e.g., focusing too much on reductions in the actual deficit as opposed to the structural deficit).    But given the regime as it is, the existence of OMT does not obviate the need for fiscal adjustments to steer clear of the bad equilibrium trap.

Central Bank Announces Pilot Scheme for Consumer Multi-Debt Restructuring

The new pilot scheme by the Irish Central Bank, specifying the claim priority of residential mortgage debt and unsecured consumer debt, is worth a brief mention here. It alters the features of Irish consumer debt contracts in terms of security and seniority. I have no legal training and I am unsure of my interpretation, so comments are welcome.

Successful Completion of Tenth Review of Troika Programme

In a statement issued at the end of this Review yesterday, we were given the by-now familiar plaudits for achieving various benchmarks. Going forward, ‘strict implementation’ of this year’s budgetary targets is urged.

The gravity of the unemployment situation is acknowledged. ‘Swift action needed to deal with unemployment’ the newspaper headlines proclaimed. The onus for this is placed on the Irish government and a familiar list of policies proposed, including for example ‘the need for enhanced engagement with the unemployed and the opening up of competition in sheltered sectors like legal services’.

I wonder how much our readers think increased competition between lawyers will contribute to lowering our unemployment rate.

ECB Monthly Bulletin

The new bulletin is out, with the following special articles:

  • 09/05/2013 – Publication: Article, Monthly Bulletin, May 2013, pp 71-83, An assessment of Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections, 423 kb, en
  • 09/05/2013 – Publication: Article, Monthly Bulletin, May 2013, pp 85-101, Country adjustment in the euro area: where do we stand?, 326 kb, en
  • 09/05/2013 – Publication: Article, Monthly Bulletin, May 2013, pp 103-114, Target balances and monetary policy operations, 631 kb, en

Blanchard and Leigh: Fiscal Consolidation: At What Speed?

Olivier Blanchard and Daniel Leigh provide a good account of the trade-off facing policy makers in identifying the optimal speed of fiscal adjustment.   See also Chapter 2 of the IMF’s recent Fiscal Monitor.   Reasons for slower adjustment include time-varying multipliers, the danger of “stall speed” where adverse feedback loops kick in at low or negative growth rates, and hysteresis effects from fiscal contractions that are worse when the economy is already in recession.   The main reason for faster adjustment is the danger of falling into a bad equilibrium with high interest rates and high expectations of default, especially where it is difficult to credibly commit to future adjustments.  

Simon Wren-Lewis gives a sceptical response here.  Paul Krugman responds here, here and here.  

The debate focuses mainly on the trade-off for a country such as the UK that retains its own independent monetary policy.   In contrast to the uncertainty that surrounds such empirical questions as the size of fiscal multipliers or the causal link from debt to growth, recent experience in Ireland and elsewhere shows that the risk of falling into a “bad equilibrium” is not hypothetical for a high-debt country within EMU.   For fragile EMU members, an additional factor is the existence of a conditional lender of last resort, where one of the conditions for support could be a forced restructuring of privately held debt (PSI).   (I make an initial stab at integrating a conditional LOLR into a model with possible multiple equilibria here)