Eurostat debt figures released, Irish debt/GDP at 108.2%

Details here. The deficit is now below 10%, which should if I’m right be the talking point on official press releases and the news tonight and such. The target in the budget (here, page 18) was 10.1%. The Budget target for debt in 2011 was and from the footnotes (remember Tom Waits’ quote about the small print):

Ireland: Eurostat is expressing a specific reservation on the data reported by Ireland, due to the fact that the restructuring plans of Allied Irish Banks and Irish Life & Permanent are not yet finalised. These restructuring plans have been used by the Irish statistical authorities to calculate in the reported figures a (deficit increasing) capital transfer element of 3.7% GDP arising from the July 2011 government injections into the two banks. Eurostat awaits the finalisation of the restructuring plans, including approval by the EU competition authorities, so that the amount of the capital transfer element can be confirmed.

Eurostat is also expressing a specific reservation on the data reported by Ireland, due to the statistical classification of National Asset Management Agency Investment Limited (NAMA-IL), which is currently classified outside the general government. Owing to the nationalisation of one of its previously private beneficial owners, whose interest is currently under a process of sale, NAMA-IL has been in majority public ownership since July 2011. Eurostat’s decision of 15 July 2009 on public interventions during the financial crisis specifies that majority private ownership is necessary for such an entity to be classified outside the General Government sector.

Another reservation might be with respect to nominal GNP, where the debt ratio now stands at roughly 131% (169/129).

Blanchard: Fiscal Compact a gateway to eurobonds

Olivier Blanchard is quoted in the press today:

“When there was no fiscal treaty nor budgetary and budgetary discipline instruments, the Germans had good reason to reject bearing the brunt of irresponsible policies by other states,” Olivier Blanchard told the Monday edition of Financial Times Deutschland.

“But now we have a fiscal treaty. The Germans should accept that the eurozone is going by way of eurobonds,” he added.

Presentation on European Crisis Countries

The 2012 Spring Meetings of the IMF and World Bank held a session yesterday that featured presentations on Greece, Portugal and Ireland.  A video of the session of available here. 

Ajai Chopra’s 15-minute presentation on Ireland begins at 31:20 in the recording.  The Irish Times have some coverage of the meeting here.

The presentation from Poul Thomsen on the overall roles of the ‘Troika’ in the country programmes is also of interest, including the remark [below the fold] from around 52:50 where he says that:

A Bedraggled ‘Celtic Tiger’ Struggles to Retrain Workers

The WSJ article is here.

IBEC: Driving Ireland’s Recovery

IBEC’s ideas are laid out here.