I posted before about David Bell’s analysis of the Scottish referendum bookies odds. The bookmakers seemed to do a good job not overreacting to the late poll numbers showing a marked swing to Yes. The days before the referendum were throwing up some dramatic poll results but the odds did not adjust as dramatically, implying the bookies were either temporally averaging across polls, had some priors about the quality of the polls, or were doing a degree of Bayesian updating or something similar. David has provided a nice piece here for those looking to keep track of bookies odds for Brexit. For now, it looks like Stay is the favorite by quite a margin and more than one would think just by looking at opinion polls.
Category: Uncategorized
Alex Arbuckle shows some fascinating pictures of evictions in Ireland, in the 1880s.
This workshop from UCC’s Dr. Aileen Murphy looks fascinating. Details are here (.pdf).
It is available at www.esr.ie/
Contents:
Vol 47, No 1, Spring (2016)
Table of Contents
Articles
ÉIRE Mod: A DSGE Model for Ireland
Daragh Clancy, Rossana Merola 1-31
Revisions to Macroeconomic Data: Ireland and the OECD
Eddie Casey, Diarmaid Smyth 33-68
Wagner in Ireland: An Econometric Analysis
Stephen Moore 69-103
Spillover in Euro Area Sovereign Bond Markets – Corrigendum
Thomas Conefrey, David Cronin 105-107
Policy Section Articles
Taxes, Income and Economic Mobility in Ireland: New Evidence from Tax
Records Data
Seán Kennedy, Yosuke Jin, David Haugh, Patrick Lenain 109-153
Searching for the Inclusive Growth Tax Grail: The Distributional
Impact of Growth Enhancing Tax Reform in Ireland
Brendan O’Connor, Terence Hynes, David Haugh, Patrick Lenain 155-184
Details of our 4th Irish Behavioural Science and Policy network meet-up are below. Sign up for the mailing list here. Sign up for the event itself here. Registration is free.
The fourth Irish Behavioural Science and Policy Network meet-up will take place on April 25th at 6pm in Dublin city centre (venue tbc). It will end at 8pm. Each meet-up is structured around a collection of short talks, where each speaker describes briefly an idea they are working on (or thinking about), followed by questions, potential suggestions for collaboration between members, and a group discussion on the collection of talks.
This session will focus on applications of behavioural science to public policy. including health applications and the role of design principles. Speakers will include Dan Hayden from UCD, Clare Delargy from the BIT, Eoin O’Malley from DCU and David Hevey from TCD.
All those interested are welcome to attend, so please do share this event information with anyone who you think would like to come along.
We look forward to seeing you on the 25th of April.