Morgan Kelly: warns our real economic crisis will begin if ECB credit stops

Morgan’s latest Op-Ed is here, following his UCD lecture linked to by Seamus here.

The latest national accounts data

I have been waiting for someone else to post on the national accounts data for 2013, available here, but no-one has yet, and it deserves a thread.

Real GDP, which as we know is mis-measured as a result of transfer pricing, declined 0.3% in 2013. Real GNP, which we learned last year has its problems too, was up by 3.4%. Nominal GDP rose by just 0.1%, which is not good for the debt to GDP ratio. Nominal GNP rose by 4%.

I guess that a marketing problem the government faces is that if it plays up the GNP numbers too much as being clearly superior, which I suppose we still believe they are (?), someone out there may start dividing our debt by GNP.

Q&A: Thomas Piketty on the Wealth Divide

Here.

International Financial Flows and the Irish Crisis

The readership may be interested in my new paper: here.

FMC Seminar

FMC Seminar: Fear and Loathing in the Housing Market: Evidence from Search Query Data

Speaker: Dr. Stuart A. Gabriel (Professor of Finance at UCLA & FMC2 Collaborator)

Date: Wednesday, March 12th 2014 at 6:00 PM (All are welcome to attend free of charge)

Location: Clarion Hotel, Excise Walk, IFSC , Dublin

For further details and to register please visit the seminar webpage. http://fmc-cluster.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=224
Refreshments will be available from 5.30pm. For catering purposes please register.

Summary:
In this presentation Professor Gabriel will outline a Big Data approach to determining levels of housing distress. Using Google search data the presentation will document a broad-based and real-time index (the Housing Distress Index (HDI)) of housing distress. The presentation will detail the characteristics of the HDI, how it compares to other indicators of housing distress, and its predictive power in determining the extent of housing distress.