“If they saw the enormity of it upfront . . . they might decide they have a choice”

The Irish Independent carries the story of recorded conversations in 2008 between Anglo Irish executives. The tone of the calls is really shocking, leading to widespread domestic opprobrium. The international reaction has been split. Jamie Smyth in the FT makes the case for a banking inquiry, while Sam Cage at Reuters pushes the party political angle. Listening to the tapes, it’s hard not to get very annoyed. Here from the FT article is an excerpt of the conversation. The bankers are discussing how best to extract the maximum monies from the State.

“The strategy here is you pull them in, you get them to write a big cheque and they have to keep – they have to support their money,” Mr Bowe said in the recorded call, when explaining why the bank had asked Ireland’s Central Bank to provide €7bn in aid when, in fact, he believed Anglo Irish required much more.

“If they saw the enormity of it upfront . . . they might decide they have a choice,” said Mr Bowe. “They might say the cost to the taxpayer is too high.”

They might have indeed.

The Anglo tapes, in one sense, describe nothing new: we already knew bankers were aware of the possible losses at Anglo, and mislead senior policy makers in 2008 as to the extent of the losses. What we didn’t know—and still don’t—is how common this reprehensible behavior was across our banking system.

Anglo is the bad boy of Irish banking, but readers should remember it was bailed out with money borrowed by the State at ECB rates. AIB, which swallowed almost as much capital as Anglo, did so at a much higher relative cost to the taxpayer in terms of cost of capital. Were executives at AIB, Bank of Ireland, and other banks, similarly aware of possible losses in their banks around the same time as these tapes were made? If so, did they deliberately mislead officials when meeting them over a possible bank guarantee? Were any officials within the Department of Finance, or the Department of the Taoiseach, similarly aware of a divergence between what the banks were saying around this time?

These and other questions have not been answered. We have had three reports into what happened in the lead up to the collapse, each giving possible reasons for why the banking collapse happened. Each report has been excellent within its limited terms of reference. Despite these reports, we have not had any satisfactory answers to simple questions revolving around a central theme: who knew what, and when?

Andrew Crockett Memorial Lecture by Raghu Rajan

Here.

Tax Conference

The Department of Finance organised a conference on taxation earlier this week.

The conference materials are here;  the opening speech by Michael Noonan is here.

Economic and Social Review: Summer 2013 issue

available here.  Includes two policy essays:

The Small Public Service Vehicle Market in Ireland:Regulation and the Recession

Paul K. Gorecki

ESR Vol 44#2 page 247

Growth and Adjustment Challenges for the Euro Area

Philip R. Lane

ESR Vol 44#2 page 273

Mortgage Arrears Q1 2013

It is a little later than usual but the first quarter mortgage arrears statistics have been published by the Financial Regulator.

There is one additional element in today’s release which is in relation to restructured mortgages.

A total stock of 79,689 PDH mortgage accounts were categorised as restructured at end-March 2013. This reflects an increase of 1.8 per cent from the stock of restructured accounts reported at end-December 2012. Of the total stock recorded at end-March, 53 per cent were not in arrears. Restructured accounts in arrears include accounts that were in arrears prior to restructuring where the arrears balance has not yet been eliminated, as well as accounts that are in arrears on the current restructuring arrangement. New data collected this quarter indicate that 76 per cent of restructured PDH accounts were deemed to be meeting the terms of their arrangement. This means that the borrower is, at a minimum, meeting the agreed monthly repayments according to the restructure arrangement. Meeting the terms of the arrangement should not be interpreted as a measure of sustainability, as not all restructure types represent longer-term sustainable solutions.

The 76% figure is broadly in line with statements made by representatives of AIB and BOI to the Oireachtas Finance Committee last Autumn. 

AIB: “Between 69% and 70% of our 33,700 customers who are in forbearance are affording the new restructured loans we have put them into.”

BOI: “Some 86% of those customers who are subject to forbearance or restructuring are fully meeting the revised arrangements.”

If the restructure is a payment moratorium or a payment less than interest-only then meeting the terms of the restructure is not an indication of long-term sustainability as stated in today’s release.

The number of early arrears (less than 90 days) fell very slightly in the quarter.  The was also small drops in the bounded categories between 90 and 180 days and between 180 and 360 days.  This suggests a slow-down in the number of cases falling into arrears but the number of long-term arrears cases continues to rise.  To convert mortgage accounts to households note that there is an average of around 1.27 mortgage accounts per household in the series.

The total stock of residential mortgage debt continues to fall.  It was €118.6 billion when the series began in September 2009 and now stands at €109.9 billion.  Over the same period the total amount of arrears has increased by €1.5 billion.  The proportion of debt in arrears of 90 days or more now stands at 16.5%.