In early 2009, the Irish domestic banks had three critical problems: insolvency, distress, and a liquidity crisis. Only one of these problems, the liquidity crisis, was solved successfully at an acceptable cost, via ECB liquidity provision. This massive liquidity provision was one key motivation for the Financial Measures Programme (FMP), which lays out a plan the banks must follow to become liquidity self-financing. Now, through no fault of the Irish banks but because of the continuing financial crisis, the liquidity target plan in the FMP is looking much too optimistic and needs some adjustment.
- 1. The loan-to-deposits target date should be changed from 2013 to (end-of) 2015.
- 2. The ECB should make clear that their liquidity assistance to Irish banks is for a longer period than originally envisioned.
Without these adjustments, the Irish domestic banks will be incentivised to continue to starve the domestic economy of credit over the next few years.