This post was written by Philip Lane
Here are the estimates from Davy Research for the different types of property loans held by Irish banks. (Access, however, limited to customers of Davy.)
Their summary: “Gauging the appropriate haircut is a function not just of the asset value; rather, it also hinges on the original loan to value, the vintage of the loan and the provisions made. Our analysis suggests a range of mark to market haircuts: from as low as 5% for loans backed by UK commercial investment property to 44% in the case of loans backed solely by Irish development land.”
Bottom line in terms of state ownership: The base case delivers ownership by the state of 78 percent for AIB and 69 percent for Bank of Ireland.