John Cotter on the Irish Financial Crisis Post author By Philip Lane Post date May 19, 2009 John Cotter offers his views on the Irish financial crisis here. Categories In Banking Crisis Tags John Cotter 9 Comments on John Cotter on the Irish Financial Crisis ← Public Capital Spending in a Recession → Alan Ahearne Makes the Case for NAMA 9 replies on “John Cotter on the Irish Financial Crisis” Overall a very good article and a good summary. However ” Ireland does have a national pension fund (sovereign wealth fund) that was financed whilst we experienced our strong growth. The use of this pension fund is critical to support our ailing economy.” NPRF stands at 15b and falling; its 60% of one years deficit, not hurtloam…. How much of the NPRF has already gone into bank recaps? “Whilst we are not near the end of the cries, there is some evidence that the poor state of the economy will start to improve.” He mentioned that govt. borrowing is now slightly less expensive and that we have an educated english speaking work force but I dont see how this counts as “evidence that the poor state of the economy will start to improve” If he isnt going to even try to make a guess at when, then whats the point at saying it “will start to improve” , that is completely obvious. I mean we cant go down for ever. Other than the unfounded optimism at the end I thought it was good. @John – if you’re out there: Do you not feel there is a need to justify this statement with actual data given the importance of the observation: “Ireland became quite uncompetitive in export markets at the start of this decade…” While I am confused by: “…. through uncompetitive salaries and trading in strong currency markets (its two largest markets are the US and the UK)”. After a fairly doom and gloom article he must have felt he needed to throw in a glimmer of hope in the final paragraph! It doesn’t tally with this earlier paragraph. “There is no doubt that the Irish economy has taken a large hit from the global financial crisis. Many of the economic indicators have worsened considerably – forecasts suggest that things will get worse before they get better.” On a related note I will be interested to see the effect on the Irish psyche when they see their May payslips. One organisation where I look after their payroll will see their staff drop c3.5% of their net income in May. They’re mainly average paid staff. It works out about €80-€85 down for the month. my question: how much of the NPRF was ever likely to go to non state-employees? It was never there as ‘general fund’ it was there to meet the ongoing cost of our public sector primarily and anything after that was icing on the cake. If you check Garret Fitzgerald’s numerous articles on competitiveness you’ll see the figures are there to support that contention. It looks like the Euro will be moving lower against the US dollar over the next months and that should help. It all has to do with interest rate differentials and relative economic growth. There is a way to profit through from the ups and downs of the stock markets: use timing signals to figure out when to get in and when to get out. 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