John Cotter on the Irish Financial Crisis

John Cotter offers his views on the Irish financial crisis here.

9 replies on “John Cotter on the Irish Financial Crisis”

Overall a very good article and a good summary. However ” Ireland does have a national pension fund (sovereign wealth fund) that was financed whilst we experienced our strong growth. The use of this pension fund is critical to support our ailing economy.”
NPRF stands at 15b and falling; its 60% of one years deficit, not hurtloam….

“Whilst we are not near the end of the cries, there is some evidence that the poor state of the economy will start to improve.”

He mentioned that govt. borrowing is now slightly less expensive and that we have an educated english speaking work force but I dont see how this counts as “evidence that the poor state of the economy will start to improve”
If he isnt going to even try to make a guess at when, then whats the point at saying it “will start to improve” , that is completely obvious. I mean we cant go down for ever.
Other than the unfounded optimism at the end I thought it was good.

@John – if you’re out there:

Do you not feel there is a need to justify this statement with actual data given the importance of the observation: “Ireland became quite uncompetitive in export markets at the start of this decade…”

While I am confused by: “…. through uncompetitive salaries and trading in strong currency markets (its two largest markets are the US and the UK)”.

After a fairly doom and gloom article he must have felt he needed to throw in a glimmer of hope in the final paragraph! It doesn’t tally with this earlier paragraph.

“There is no doubt that the Irish economy has taken a large hit from the global financial crisis. Many of the economic indicators have worsened considerably – forecasts suggest that things will get worse before they get better.”

On a related note I will be interested to see the effect on the Irish psyche when they see their May payslips. One organisation where I look after their payroll will see their staff drop c3.5% of their net income in May. They’re mainly average paid staff. It works out about €80-€85 down for the month.

my question: how much of the NPRF was ever likely to go to non state-employees? It was never there as ‘general fund’ it was there to meet the ongoing cost of our public sector primarily and anything after that was icing on the cake.

It looks like the Euro will be moving lower against the US dollar over the next months and that should help.

It all has to do with interest rate differentials and relative economic growth.

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