Moral hazard, time inconsistency, and banking in the long run

Will Hutton has an op-ed piece today in the Observer which includes some striking historical charts. These are extracted by a very interesting article by Andy Haldane, Executive Director, Financial Stability at the Bank of England. Haldane’s article is well worth a read, as a simple conceptualization of the long run problems facing financial regulators.

Money quote:

Haldane describes “the latest incarnation of efforts by the banking system to boost shareholder returns and, whether by accident or design, game the state. For the authorities, [these pose] a dilemma. Ex-ante, they may well say “never again”. But the ex-post costs of crisis mean such a statement lacks credibility. Knowing this, the rational response by market participants is to double their bets. This adds to the cost of future crises. And the larger these costs, the lower the credibility of “never again” announcements. This is a doom loop.”

Receipts and Expenditure Estimates 2010

Have been released by the Department of Finance. The toll of added social welfare and debt payments showing clearly through. I will let the comments decide whether the receipt estimates are realistic.

link here

Labour Budget Submission

The Labour Submission is here

Key points:

Spending
700 million jobs fund for employment subsidies and placement schemes
1.3 billion reduction in pay budget
1.3 billion reduction in capital spending through lower tender prices
900 million reduction in non-pay spending (list given at end of document)
Reinstate Christmas Social Welfare Payment (240 million)

Tax
Third rate of income tax (48 per cent kicking in at 100k for single and 200k for couple)
Abolition of a number of tax expenditures
Carbon Tax

TASC Pre-Budget Submission

TASC argue for savings to be made (approx 5 billion) from removing various tax breaks. The document contains a useful list of the large number of tax expenditures in the Irish system, taken from the Commission on Taxation report. They argue that reducing many of these breaks would be an equitable way of raising finance.

link here

Fine Gael Budget Proposals

Fine Gael have released their budget proposals (though presumably not in time for the government to adopt many of them). The detailed financial breakdown of the proposals is at the bottom of the press release. There are a lot of proposals in here and they are, inevitably, a bit of mixed bag. For now, I will merely brandish a yellow card for unsportsmanlike behaviour at the idea that we can “save” €500 million in infrastructure spending by funneling it through an off-balance sheet vehicle.