Here‘s a link to the exchequer returns for February and here‘s the release comparing tax outcomes to the targets set out in the budget. (Here are the full set of targets for the year.) Tax revenues are 1.3% behind target for the year.
If replicated over the year, that would imply a shortfall for the year of €310 million which isn’t such a big deal. That said—and I don’t claim to be an expert on the month-to-month stuff and I know lots of this stuff is really noisy—income tax receipts being down 6% relative to target seem like bad news, More generally, I’m starting to get worried at how we keep falling short of targets.
The GDP and unemployment statistics from last year showed the really steep declines in activity ended in the second quarter. I’m looking for an unwinding of the huge year-over-year declines by April or so. If that doesn’t happen, we could end up pretty far off target.