Latest EPA projections

The EPA has released its latest forecasts for the emissions of greenhouse gases up to 2020. It confirms that Ireland will not need to buy additional CO2 permits on the international market. We may even have too many, but the NTMA is not allow to sell any excess for reasons that entirely escape me. The EPA also confirms that Ireland is unlikely to meet its 2020 target (although Greece may lend a helping hand) even in the “optimistic” scenario, which assumes that emissions fall if there is a government report that tells them to.

12 replies on “Latest EPA projections”

Thanks for the update Richard, I was wondering where to locate stats on emissions etc.

Can anyone tell me where is the best source of information, in basic format for Ireland’s GDP. Probably the CSO website. Anyone have an exact link?

Reduction in emissions (of fossil fuels) = neg GDP. So how do we Growth (all please bow) then? Logic deficit somewhere?

B Peter

If NTMA can’t sell the credits (and the market value will decline as the recession bites further and industrial output dips) then the logical (albeit not exactly environmental sound) option would be to defer environmental measures which decrease carbon output below the amount permitted by the credits, in order of the most expensive per ton CO2e avoided.

Quite a few of our European neighbours have experienced gdp growth and emissions decline over the medium term. (Sweden, UK, Germany..) Ireland’s experience to date has tended to have both indicators moving in the same direction (although not at the same pace thankfully). Then again we’ve never truly tried to rein in emissions growth before.

I think banking of credits might be what the NTMA have in mind rather than burning. Even considering the possibility that burning them would be necessary though implies that Richard’s (tongue in cheek) theory that reports reduce emissions has some element of truth. Or put more simply that we will actually hit the with additional measures scenario for the 2008-2012 period.

The figures are suspect, because they’re based on SEAI’s projections for 2009-2020. I’m surprised the EPA went with these, because they’ve already been shown to be way off.

SEAI’s projections, based on modelling, had Irish TPER declining by 1.2% from 2008-2012. Well the provisional energy balance for 2009 was out a few weeks ago and it showed that already, 2009 TPER was down 12% over 2008 (from 16.7Mtoe to 14.6Mtoe).

The rundown was:
Oil -18%
Electricity -10%
Coal -15%
Natural Gas -4%
Renewables +10%

Have you any insight into the precipitous drop in oil consumption? Oil accounted for 85% of the drop in TPER.

@ Richard Tol,

Have you ever heard mention of this book?

Available in print also by clicking on the link. I was flicking through the virtual pages this evening. I think a lot of the stuff there is mathematical language, for points the Green party were trying to make in political language in Dail debates. For instance, the ‘answer isn’t electric SUV’s’, as per a recent Ciaran Cuffe speech. BOH.

@Eamon Keane
Putting together emissions projections is a lengthy process which begins at the point that provisional energy balances become final, in this case around Autumn of 2009, so this more up to date information will feed into the next iteration of the process that begins again at the end of the summer.
Re the data itself, and oil in particular, large fall in transport is not surprising. Its very closely correlated with economic growth and the price differential with the UK has closed considerably. Also the oil refinery seems much quieter. Its GHG emissions according to the CITL for 2009 were down about 14%. Only residential oil consumption has held up, no surprise given the poor winters we’ve had. The statistical difference for oil seems pretty big so I imagine there will be changes in the final balances.

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