Economics, voodoo, and climate policy

Prof Tol,

You’d best leave this issue to the people with the real expertise – op-ed journalists…. wait, that can’t be right?

I’ve noticed Gibbons has a tendency to attack the credentials of anyone who doesn’t share his views (or even those who don’t share enough of his views), in spite of having no credentials of his own. It’s sad that lunatics on the polar-sides of climate-change debate seem to get so much press, while moderates are subjected to abuse from either side.

@Richard
your own modest role in propping up Lomborg’s house of cards sadly was beyond the scope of today’s very brief article. Still, he who works for the ‘Copenhagen Consensus’, ‘Global Warming Policy Foundation/Farce’ etc. How about breaking the habits of a lifetime and addressing the substantive issue that, as Friel lays out clearly, Lomborg’s methodology is not just unscientific, it’s downright corrupt, and scandalously, deliberately misleading.

@MarcusOC and Enda H, it couldn’t hurt to actually be informed before posting here, right? Start with Friel’s book. MarcusOC, it’s just as well I don’t think you’re referring to me in the phrase “lunatics”. Right?

@Karl Whelan
“And most of us are open to pursuasion on the basis of empirical evidence — my sense is that very few economists are climate change deniers.”
Hey, and you have such a wild and crazy sense of humour too 😀

Anyway, everyone knows the claimate, sorry, climate is best left to teachers and Bicycle Repair Man (he’s my hero).

*exits humming “I’d like to teach the world to sing in perfect harmony…”

Gibbons is rather ill-informed on economics, given how often he returns to bashing the subject. I recall a while ago going through him for a short cut on radio for this piece, http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2008/1204/1228311872676.html

(the IT piece is pay-gated, sadly)

There’s also the rather misguided notion Comrade Whelan points out, that people’s economics are skewed by their political leanings. I’m not sure how true that is at all.

@Stephen

I do remember your tuppence worth of tub thumping on Matt Cooper alright! “If he was one of my first year students, I’d have failed him….” etc. etc. This kind of gross overconfidence and arrogance among economists, even those still wet behind the ears, is reason why your, er, profession gets a bit of a kicking when it repeatedly ventures into areas far beyond its competence. Back to school, sir! There are still waaaay too many economists masquerading as expert commentators in this fair land. And what’s worse, they’re still getting lots and lots of air time.

“Hayek, to take but one example, refused to partake in the two-hand reel with a gorgeous colleen during a sojurn in Ennis during Fleadh Nua because it might have disturbed his individualist ideology.”

Sure Hayek wasn’t just shy?

Prof Tol’s post is most concerned with John Gibbons’ criticism of economists and statisticians. Gibbons’ makes a sweeping statement that is insulting to economists and statisticians who write about climate change. Of course statistics and economics have a critical role in climate change policy. What I would like to know is if The Skeptical Environmentalist, a book that I haven’t read, is a load of rubbish or not? Any thoughts?

“However, we do tend to talk about efficiency and tradeoffs and this kind of stuff tends to annoy true believers of certain other ideologies.”
+1. Like many lobby groups some members of the Green one see mention of cost as implying reservations about the goals. To be fair, it often does. But disparaging economics will prove self-defeating for the Green movement. They need to listen to their economist critics even more closely than they do to their own true believers, even their economist ones.
In a world of finite resources only mastery of the dark arts of economics will allow the Greens to achieve their goals.

In the case of the Irish Greens it is always necessary for both them and their critics to remember that this is their first time to hold any kind of power in Ireland, given the emasculation of local government. They have demonstrated that they are as pragmatic (if not more) as any other Irish party in political terms. Now they have to be similarly pragmatic on the policies and the pace with which they achieve their goals.

It’s Karl Whelan’s reductionism that really sums up the problem. Economists come in and say “well, this is just a simple statistical problem, let’s look at temperatures at Dublin Airport over the last 30 years. Done!” They don’t make any attempt to understand the science, and they have no respect for those who have.

Gibbons apparent disdain for economists is extremely revealing. I suspect it is similar to the value system of many environmentalists where humans and their ability to eek out a living count for nothing, absolutely nothing, well with the extremists anyway. Sort of like the animal rights activists.

If Gibbons “refers to economic models as “voodoo”” what does he refer to climate models as? voodoo propaganda?

“Most seriously, Gibbons suggests that statisticians and economists have no relevant expertise on climate science and policy.”

yikes!

does evidence count for anything?

“Greenhouse gas emissions are caused by economic activity”.

Fair enough, and do greenhouse gases drive climate change or just affect it at the margin?

Remember in former times a lot of the current so-called environmentalists would’ve been socialists supporting the USSR. Eco nuttery is the new statist fashion.

What amazes me is that the IT printed an article which is pretty much libelous. By opening with the attention grabbing headline “Climate change doubter with PhD only in spin” and then not only failing to mention that Mr. Lomburg does actually have a PHD in the recognized field of Political Science but also using the phrase “for someone without even an undergraduate degree in a physical science” Gibbons created a clear albeit temporary impression in my mind that Mr. Lomburg was *telling lies* about his qualifications.

The IT really published this piece? It reads more like an pseudo-scientific anti-intellectual rant from 1930s Germany, than something from a genteel Irish broadsheet.

When do they start rounding up statisticians?

@Stephen – thanks for the links.

I had a look at the Newsweek article on Friel’s book and it seems convincing that Lomborg’s book if full of inaccuracies. At the moment I don’t have the stamina to read through the response from Lomborg. Is John Gibbons using bombast to do battle with a bombastic outlook, is that possible? The main thread of his article Is Gibbons right? Is Lomborg talking rubbish and giving unwarranted credence to climate change policy skeptics?

@Holbrook, I’m reading Lomborg’s reply to Friel now, it’s a very interesting debate, reminiscent of this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Mismeasure_of_Man.

@Desmond

apart from Gibbons’ style, shriekiness and shrillness, is he right to castigate Lomborg?

@HF

Bjorn Lomborg was only one of JG’s targets, the targets included _any_ economist or statistician. I don’t dispute that there exists valid criticism of Lomborg, but John Gibbon’s attempts to shut down debate are not at all helpful. In his current form, John Gibbons criticism should not be entertained.

Also specifically his attempt to rule Lomborg offside is pretty nuts as for example in 2008 Lomborg was named “one of the 50 people who could save the planet” by the Guardian. Needless to say the failure John Gibbons didn’t even get a look in : http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/jan/05/activists.ethicalliving

As said, it is ridiculous that people such as Gibbons, of mediocre talent, and lesser honesty, are being allowed to dominate debate on this important public issue. The Irish Times really needs to think about its standards in giving a platform to people liek Gibbons, there are many, many more out there more able than him – and they do the specific issue (climate change) and wider public policy debate , a serious disservice by appointing him as climate change champion.

There is little point using the same paint that Mr Gibbons used in this article.
If someone was to claim right of reply in the Times and came back with something similar then doesnt it cloud the waters with much faeces?
The Times needs to look at themselves here!
If Mr Gibbons is going through a barren patch then they should be looking at other talents to bridge the gap.
There are plenty of talented people out there,,,,

A pretty efficient circling of the wagons, gentlemen. I think my gender assumptions are accurate.

Mr. Gibbons (and by the well-worn principle of generalisation environmentalists who criticize conventional economics) is variously compared to are variously compared to Stalinists missing the Soviet Union and and a populist in 1930s Germany. I note you neatly avoided the N. word, with all that implies.

Moving on to Mr. Tol’s criticism of Mr. Gibbon’s article:

Nowhere in his article does Mr. Gibbons claim that “that statisticians and economists have no relevant expertise on climate science and policy”. Notice the trick here. Mr. Tol conveniently elides the qualification of the economist to comment on climate change policy, which any person in their right mind would grant, with Mr. Gibbons actual criticism of their right to comment on climate change science, which some, including many commentators on this thread, seem to support. Economists emphatically do not have the background to critique the mix of physics, atmospheric chemistry, mathematical and computer modeling which constitutes the impressive state of contemporary climate science.

Nor does Mr. Gibbons refer “to economic models as “voodoo””. He claims that Lomborg uses ‘classic voodoo economics models’. Again the convenient generalisation by Mr. Tol as an invitation for the me-too crowd can turn into generalised attacks on environmentalists.

The other issue of substance in Mr. Gibbons article is that Lomborg played a key role in an campaign to undermine public belief overwhelming consensus in climate science on the reality and likely effects of AGW. He paved the way for blowing up some methodological issues at the University of East Anglia CRU and some bad fact-checking in a peripheral IPPC report into an attack on climate science and in some cases science in general. This was an ideological exercise par excellence.

I find myself in the invidious position of agreeing with Mr. Tol, however, in his assertion that climate change mitigation is absolutely a question of economics, given that economic activity drives anthropogenic global warming. Equally changes in economic activity and organisation along with technological change are the only way to mitigate its quite possibly disastrous effects on our ability to support the current global population.

@ Pope Epopt
Thanks for the closer dissection of the mud slinging. There’s fault on all sides but given that Lomborg has been lauded so much and proven to be so popular – who has done the greatest disservice to the climate debate? Lomborg or Gibbons? If what is being said of Lomborg is true – that his book is full of inaccuracies, then shouldn’t we all be painting Lomborg as the villain and not Gibbons? Can we believe Howard Friel’s new book?

@Pope Epopt

Thanks very much for the info. I had a quick look at Lomborg’s response to Friel, and that too sounds very convincing…! My guess is that there are serious differences over how viewpoints are framed, e.g. what is the most effective way of spending €50 billion vs. what is the potential fallout from AGW? or how can we best preserve polar bear habitats that are subject to climate change vs how can we protect polar bears best (Lomborg’s point about stopping polar bear hunting seems very reasonable). Anyhow, as with much else it is hard to know who to trust, but as someone who is trying to grapple with these questions it’s great to hear the airing of arguments on this blog and in the comments.

One of my favourite quotes is from André Gide: Believe those who search for truth. Doubt those who claim to have found it.

Last Dec. Prof. William Reville wrote in the Irish Times: “At the heart of science is the objective search for truth. However, the scientific investigation of climate change may not merit high marks in this respect. The majority and the minority scientific explanations of current climate change are contradictory and both sides loudly accuse each other of dishonesty.

For example, John Gibbons, climate change lobbyist, opened his debate with Prof Ian Plimer, Australian geologist and climate sceptic, on Pat Kenny’s radio show on December 2nd, by calling Plimer “a grade-A charlatan”. Let us hope the discussions in Copenhagen will be more measured.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/sciencetoday/2009/1210/1224260412971.html

Gibbons writes: “Lomborg’s actual genius lies not in science, but in theatre. He realised that if he could look and sound science-y, almost no one would know the difference, since few in the media or politics have any idea how science actually works.”

The same point could be made about Al Gore who has become immensely wealthy from his advocacy on climate change.

However, hurling personal abuse about does not engage the disengaged

Tony Kinsella wrote on Gibbons’ own blog: “Our arguments need to be solid and challenging while not being alarmist.

More rational analysis and less proselytising.

The participation of Bjorn Lomborg in the debate should be welcome. He does after all advocate the development of clean energies.

In recent years there has been a stampede to embrace renewables, including of course vested interests. However, sometimes the apparent cure can make the disease worse.

Economist Prof. John Kay wrote last month in the FT: “Scientists have learnt that exaggerated claims are a route to a media profile and research funding. There is little downside in predicting disaster: if it does not materialise they can claim to have been instrumental in staving it off. Scares that thrive, such as the millennium bug and swine flu, have commercial interests that benefit from their propagation. Naysayers in the credit boom, by contrast, were trampled in the rush to share the riches available to those who denied or disregarded the dangers.”

While the irrational belief in a god is still common in the world, it will take time for rational arguments on climate change to gain wide acceptance.

It must have seemed like a good idea at the time – the 2007 IPCC Report whipping up a fervour of public opinion for political action on climate change, the Greens power-sharing in our own government; an issue with appeal to the readership demographic the Times needs to attract; the appointment of a ‘Climate Change Columnist’ copperfastening the Times’ claim to be in the vanguard of Irish journalism. His appointment as an IT columnist has arguably turned into a disaster for the newspaper. John Gibbons might have been better left to blog away harmlessly on his internet site preaching to the already converted. Instead his emotive outpourings of 90,000 words plus over the past two years have dismayed many people who wish to see an intelligent and informed public debate on the issues.

By his own admission, John Gibbons experienced an ‘epiphany’ on climate change a few years ago. Unfortunately, this appears to have turned him into a latter-day Savoranola of sorts, spreading the gospel of climate change catastrophism and dedicated to the destruction of any who might challenge his convictions. It’s fairly obvious that he would like to drag so-called ‘denier’, Richard Tol, to a stake and light a fire under him, though, as far as I know, Tol has devoted most of his working life to the economics of climate change and is internationally respected for his expertise in this area.

In the era of prosperity, climate change ranked high among public concerns. In an era of austerity it has slipped down the public agenda more rapidly than it might otherwise have done. Politically, the boat has gone out for proselytisers like Gibbons. Taxpayers will question public expenditure on climate change policy initiatives much more than they would have done when money appeared to be no object. The problem is not what statisticians or environmental economists say about the options we should take as a society and a community to address climate change; it’s that they have been cut out of the debate for far too long.

@Veronica,

“The problem is not what statisticians or environmental economists say about the options we should take as a society and a community to address climate change; it’s that they have been cut out of the debate for far too long.”

Kindly show how this can be the case. Economists have been all over global warming from Day One, and the solutions are well known.

It is political will that has been lacking.

@Toby, Richard,

My point is that in the politics of climate change, a small group of climate scientists and the environmental movement have been in the front row of determining what that policy should be, as well as shaping public opinion in support of the options selected, assisted by the mainstream media’s penchant for simplistic analysis and catastrophic scenarios. Economists and statisticians, as well as political scientists and historians, and the valuable critique which they might have supplied on those options, have been scattered further back, with those most inclined to question the prevaling consensus firmly relegated to the back row.

A number of factors, not least the international credit crunch, are causing a shift in public opinion away from prioritising climate change as an issue as well as less stoical public acceptance of solutions that may prove costly to society or may not, when all the evidence is taken into account, be justifiable.

As the politics change, the influence of the high minded morality-based approach of environmentalists will also wane and the opinons of statisticians and economists will loom larger in the political frame. It’s understandable that this waning influence may make people like John Gibbons uncomfortable. But lashing out at every policy critique, and labelling and name-calling anyone who questions a particular interpretation, is hardly wise.

If economists, as you say Richard, have been peripheral in Europe’s climate policy, they have been practically non-existent in the Irish public debate on climate change up to recent times. But we should know enough from our recent history (e.g. nuclear policy) to recognise that an all-embracing public and policy consensus on any environmental issue is not always in our best interests.

@Veronica, Richard,

As a (non-academic) statistician, I have tried to glean what I could from the writings on global warming. While the Royal Statistical Society criticised the methods of the CRU after “Climategate”, the recommended methods do not lead to different results. The case for global warming rests on computer models of the physical mechanisms and, so far, their predictions within limts of error have been borne out. The trends in temperature, Arctic sea ice, carbon dioxide levels and sea level rise all support the theory. At the moment, fitting an explanatory model to temperature based on carbon dioxide levels would not prove anything because simple correlation (like between my age and oil prices) would account for the result.

Since the science is sound (and even if the predictions were off, it would be mad to ignore them), we would naturally expect that governments would make decisions that are rigorously science-based and act according to the best advice. That is where economists come in. As far I know (and is based mostly on reading Krugman), carbon-taxes to make alternative technologies competitive are the accepted market mechanism.

The fact that governments are being wary of this issue arises from a well-funded rearguard action by the coal and oil industries, using the tactics pioneered by the tobacco companies in holding up the banning of tobacco for may years after the evidence was crystal clear. Indeed, in at least one case, an “Institute” set up by the nicotine industry just switched its main theme to climate change.

The fact that public support for action on climate change has dropped has a simpler explanation than Veronica’s: the cold winters in the US and Europe made it hard for anyone to accept global warming at the moment. No matter how often they are told otherwise, people interpret the climate by the daily weather.

However, I have been mainly following this debate in the US. Comes from been more interested in US politics than the boring old EU. However, may Richard could go into more detail about how the ETS departs from the correct economic model for handling coal, oil and the new technologies we need to bring to market to replace them.

Here’s a Lomborg piece from the FT, post Copenhagen, where he applauds the failure to agree on carbon taxes however he acknowledges there is a problem all the same… but there is good news, he has a pat solution, huge investment in energy R&D…

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/46455cb4-ef39-11de-86c4-00144feab49a.html

Gibbons: “LOOKING TO a statistician or economist for expert guidance on complex scientific matters… when it comes to climate science… a small band of people operating entirely beyond their training or competence… emerged as international experts.”

Prof Tol: “Gibbons suggests that statisticians and economists have no relevant expertise on climate science and policy”

Gibbons: “Without Lomborg’s meticulous preparatory work, the “Climategate” red herring – since debunked – might have not been so eagerly swallowed.”

Prof Tol: “Gibbons oddly suggests that Lomborg is behind “climategate””

I think that’s clear enough.

As is Prof Tol’s assertion that “Lomborg can now afford to be more accurate”, which is very reassuring.