Month: May 2010

Behavioural Economics, Policy and Business

On the 28th May, the Geary Institute will hold a major event on “Behavioural Economics, Policy and Business” in Dublin City Centre.

The currently confirmed panelists include Liam Delaney and Colm Harmon of the UCD Geary Institute, Peter Lunn of the ESRI and author of the well-known behavioural economics book Basic Instincts, and Gerard O’Neill, Director of Amarach Research. The event begins at 2pm and ends at 4pm, and will be followed by coffee. The venue is the Institute of Bankers building on North Wall Quay.

The session will begin with a short introduction to the field of behavioural economics. This short introduction will provide a working definition of behavioural economics; a short history of the field; an overview of the major global centres and projects in the area; a description of the most widely cited applications of behavioural economics ideas to real-world problems; and a brief overview of potential applications in the Irish business and policy context.

A wide ranging panel discussion will follow, addressing such questions as:

– What aspects of behavioural economics should particularly interest business people? For example, how is behavioural economics relevant to product development, advertising and marketing? What are the potential regulatory changes emerging from this literature?

– Why should policymakers care about behavioural economics? What is the relevance of behavioural economics to such questions as how we should design taxation and regulation? Is there any role for government to protect citizens from themselves in areas such as financial services?

– What has this new literature to say about economic renewal in Ireland including its relevance to major strategic initiatives such as the Smart Economy and the Strategy for Science Technology and Innovation?

We welcome suggestions for other questions to pose during the panel discussion. There will also be ample opportunity for audience participation.

In order to help us plan the event and print registration details, we would be very grateful if people could RSVP to Emma.Barron@ucd.ie at their earliest possible convenience if they intend attending the event.

The New Development Economics

The current issue of the New Yorker has a profile of Esther Duflo.  In the article, the views of Angus Deaton on the limitations of randomised controlled trials are assessed as wondering if “someone put sand in Angus’s toothpaste”.  Readers will find the offending substance here. 

You will undoubtedly  make your own assessment of the following direct quote from Duflo in the New Yorker piece:  “I want a baby goat” she mused.  “I’ll take good care of it”.

BBC Radio 4 The World Tonight: Lessons from Ireland for the UK

The World Tonight programme is running a series on fiscal adjustment in Europe, with the attendant lessons for the UK. Last night’s programme includes a report from Ireland plus an interview with Kevin Daly (minutes 07:30 to 17:00); tonight’s programme will report from Greece.

Brian Cowen: “The Irish Banking Crisis – the Mistakes, the Responses and the Lessons”

An Taoiseach gives his views on the Irish Banking Crisis in this speech.

[This month will see much more on this topic, with the two scoping inquiries on the banking crisis due at the end of May.]

State Gets 18% of AIB

AIB have released an interim management statement. As expected, the bank has not been able to pay the state its cash dividend of €280 million, so they are issuing shares for this amount instead. The NAMA bonds are referred to “enhancing our contingent liquidity resources.”

As an aside—and sorry to bring up Frank Fahey twice in two days—I’d note when I appeared on the radio with Deputy Fahey in February, he told listeners that the government would definitely be getting its cash dividend from AIB in May. I noted at the time that the coupon stopper was in place “to prevent the reduction of own funds by financial institutions which are still reliant on State aid to fulfil regulatory capital requirements” and so this was highly unlikely. To my mind, the fact that government politicians are sent out to continuously over-promise in relation to their banking strategy ultimately ends up just undermining their credibility.

Update: I just noticed that the Department of Finance press release contains the following:

The Minister explained:

“The €280 million in ordinary shares issued to the Fund will count towards the additional €7.4 billion equity capital requirement determined by the Financial Regulator so that AIB will meet the new base case capital standards.”

I’m not sure I understand this. The state is not putting any extra funds in, just receiving shares that dilute the existing ownership. Can the issuance of these pieces of paper in exchange for no money really raise regulatory capital? If this trick works, why can’t the bank’s ownership just issue a few million more shares to themselves for free? Then reaching the €7.4 billion target will be no bother.