The Irish Economy
Commentary, information, and intelligent discourse about the Irish economy
HT Calculated Risk
The follow-on link to a WSJ article is also informative. I was one of many analysts complaining about the assumed modest property price declines in the stress test, and I used Ireland as an example. Ireland was far from the worst — some of the other countries had even less appropriate “worst case” scenario forecasts for property prices – particularly Greece – and this affected the results of the test quite dramatically.
Looks like Jim Chanos will soon be a very rich man with his short bet on Chinese real estate and related assets.
But as Matthew Yglesias points out a 60% decline isn’t such a dramatic scenario where a 68% increase has happened the year before:
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